Team Harris’ Path to Victory

[Trippy Trekker]

Relaxed, courteous, collaborative discussion and dialog encouraged.

From where I sit, Biden’s decision to drop out in favor of VP Harris totally changed the script! My analysis of the EV Math convinced me, beyond a shadow of doubt, Biden could not win. Team Harris, on the other hand, has a reasonable shot, yet a very narrow path to possible victory.

I can feel palpable excitement build as the World waits for Team Harris to choose a running mate and for the DNC to hold its Convention. I believe Team Harris must pin significant hope on the active participation of a new generation of voters, namely Generation Z.

Team Trump must go on defense to keep its lead in GA(16) and NC(16). Team Harris has already narrowed the gap. I expect Team Trump to still win both those states.

The main race, IMO, comes down to the 78EVs in seven Key Swing States: PA(19), MI(15), VA(13), AZ(11), WI(10), NV(6), NH(4).

Team Harris must win PA, MI, VA, WI, NH. This puts her on the edge of victory! Win in either AZ or NV puts her over the TOP!

Most of the discussion on a running mate currently focuses on either U.S. Senator Mark Kelly from AZ or popular PA Gov. Josh Shapiro.

While both men tout sterling credentials, I give the nod to Gov. Shapiro, age 51. Remember, no state looms more important to Team Harris right now than PA!

Sen. Kelly age 60, looks 70+. He does not have a record of Executive experience as an elected official.

Please remember the ‘Loft Guidelines’. If you feel you have something to add, please join this courteous discussion.

 

[Bok Tuklo]

I believe she should rely on the Abortion ballot measure to do her work in Arizona and choose Shapiro. Pennsylvania is a must. Arizona is candy.

 

[multivita-man]

I think Harris is very likely going to win NH and VA. She needs four states, really: WI, MI, PA, and GA. If she can sweep the rust belt and win in GA, then she'd be the presumptive winner, barring any #stopthesteal hijinks. It would be better if she can recreate the 2020 map, which until recently I was thinking an impossibility, but maybe it's not. We'll just have to see.

 

[Bok Tuklo]

I think Harris is very likely going to win NH and VA. She needs four states, really: WI, MI, PA, and GA. If she can sweep the rust belt and win in GA, then she'd be the presumptive winner, barring any #stopthesteal hijinks. It would be better if she can recreate the 2020 map, which until recently I was thinking an impossibility, but maybe it's not. We'll just have to see.

I think not being Biden has delivered Michigan to her. That leaves Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (as long as she gets NE-02).

 

[Trippy Trekker]

I think Harris is very likely going to win NH and VA. She needs four states, really: WI, MI, PA, and GA. If she can sweep the rust belt and win in GA, then she'd be the presumptive winner, barring any #stopthesteal hijinks. It would be better if she can recreate the 2020 map, which until recently I was thinking an impossibility, but maybe it's not. We'll just have to see.

You feel more confident than I do about GA.

We both know Team Harris has to narrow the gap, generate the stronger War Chest and utilize resources effectively. We need to peak at the right time!

Your EV Math analysis tends to reconcile with mine.

I live and vote in Florida. No chance Harris wins Florida. I have not charted (in terms of contributing time and money) yet how I can best help Team Harris.

 

[Fearandloathing]

Relaxed, courteous, collaborative discussion and dialog encouraged.

From where I sit, Biden’s decision to drop out in favor of VP Harris totally changed the script! My analysis of the EV Math convinced me, beyond a shadow of doubt, Biden could not win. Team Harris, on the other hand, has a reasonable shot, yet a very narrow path to possible victory.

I can feel palpable excitement build as the World waits for Team Harris to choose a running mate and for the DNC to hold its Convention. I believe Team Harris must pin significant hope on the active participation of a new generation of voters, namely Generation Z.

Team Trump must go on defense to keep its lead in GA(16) and NC(16). Team Harris has already narrowed the gap. I expect Team Trump to still win both those states.

The main race, IMO, comes down to the 78EVs in seven Key Swing States: PA(19), MI(15), VA(13), AZ(11), WI(10), NV(6), NH(4).

Team Harris must win PA, MI, VA, WI, NH. This puts her on the edge of victory! Win in either AZ or NV puts her over the TOP!

Most of the discussion on a running mate currently focuses on either U.S. Senator Mark Kelly from AZ or popular PA Gov. Josh Shapiro.

While both men tout sterling credentials, I give the nod to Gov. Shapiro, age 51. Remember, no state looms more important to Team Harris right now than PA!

Sen. Kelly age 60, looks 70+. He does not have a record of Executive experience as an elected official.

Please remember the ‘Loft Guidelines’. If you feel you have something to add, please join this courteous discussion.

The greatest threat to any election campaign is over confidence.

She's blowing doors off, but its not as dramatic as it seems as doors had remained firmly shuttered under Biden.

Trump is VERY popular. They have jerry mandered most of the key ridings, and have a great edge in Red States.


Harris may register as ten points ahead in the polls, but that does not translate into victory. DO NOT forget that Hillary won a great majority of the popular vote when he first won. Since then there's been beaucoup corruption

 

[Mycroft]

What the OP describes has been the Democrat's plan all along...since 2022, at least. That's how long it's been evident that their attempts to diminish Trump are failing.

It's really not about Harris getting poll numbers that beat Trump. They just have to get them close enough so their election fraud isn't obvious and can be denied or covered up.

They couldn't do that with Biden.

 

[pragmatic]

Relaxed, courteous, collaborative discussion and dialog encouraged.

From where I sit, Biden’s decision to drop out in favor of VP Harris totally changed the script! My analysis of the EV Math convinced me, beyond a shadow of doubt, Biden could not win. Team Harris, on the other hand, has a reasonable shot, yet a very narrow path to possible victory.

I can feel palpable excitement build as the World waits for Team Harris to choose a running mate and for the DNC to hold its Convention. I believe Team Harris must pin significant hope on the active participation of a new generation of voters, namely Generation Z.

Team Trump must go on defense to keep its lead in GA(16) and NC(16). Team Harris has already narrowed the gap. I expect Team Trump to still win both those states.

The main race, IMO, comes down to the 78EVs in seven Key Swing States: PA(19), MI(15), VA(13), AZ(11), WI(10), NV(6), NH(4).

Team Harris must win PA, MI, VA, WI, NH. This puts her on the edge of victory! Win in either AZ or NV puts her over the TOP!

Most of the discussion on a running mate currently focuses on either U.S. Senator Mark Kelly from AZ or popular PA Gov. Josh Shapiro.

While both men tout sterling credentials, I give the nod to Gov. Shapiro, age 51. Remember, no state looms more important to Team Harris right now than PA!

Sen. Kelly age 60, looks 70+. He does not have a record of Executive experience as an elected official.

Please remember the ‘Loft Guidelines’. If you feel you have something to add, please join this courteous discussion.

Good post. Reasonable thoughts/projections.

My input would be for everybody to remember that we are still in July.

Lots of things can (and almost certainly will) happen in the coming months to change the landscape. Debates are a potentially huge variable. As are all the currently unknown "outrages" (real, imagined, or manufactured) which will likely surface between now and election day.

At this point it's all a crap shoot.

..

 

[Trippy Trekker]

The greatest threat to any election campaign is over confidence.

She's blowing doors off, but its not as dramatic as it seems as doors had remained firmly shuttered under Biden.

Trump is VERY popular. They have jerry mandered most of the key ridings, and have a great edge in Red States.


Harris may register as ten points ahead in the polls, but that does not translate into victory. DO NOT forget that Hillary won a great majority of the popular vote when he first won. Since then there's been beaucoup corruption

Trump tallied 232EVs in 2020. I predict he wins the same states again, plus a few more, specifically GA(16) among those few. This gets him too close for comfort!

Team Harris has to conduct a campaign totally focused on the EV Math!

 

[BitterPill]

What the OP describes has been the Democrat's plan all along...since 2022, at least. That's how long it's been evident that their attempts to diminish Trump are failing.

It's really not about Harris getting poll numbers that beat Trump. They just have to get them close enough so their election fraud isn't obvious and can be denied or covered up.

They couldn't do that with Biden.

I was aghast to find many wayward voices on the right, even some within the MAGAsphere, urging lib-progs to be rid of Biden.

Then it happened, and now we're screwed.

On a scale of one to ten, how culpable do you think those wayward voices are?

MAGA.

 

[Fearandloathing]

Trump tallied 232EVs in 2020. I predict he wins the same states again, plus a few more, specifically GA(16) among those few. This gets him too close for comfort!

Team Harris has to conduct a campaign totally focused on the EV Math!

I've covered elections in Canada since 1967.

What I learned is that accurate predictions are an accident. The most experienced and able pros have assured me time and time again, that you can predict all you want, but when you're right...it's a total 'educated accident'.

The last election I worked on we went in 6 points behind expecting to lose seven to eight seats.

That stood through election day.

Shock ruled in ALL quarters when we swept to a clear victory with an increase of five seats.....

And these were pros of many years standing, perhaps more than a hundred years of collective experience.

A great Canadian politician once said "polls are for dogs" It's the only thing John George Deifenbaker as EVER right about

 

[Callen]

I am conflicted about who but the Dems have such a strong bench to choose from it's hard to imagine a bad choice ! I don't think NC can be ignored with 16 electoral votes, a Cooper pick puts that in play. I also think, somewhat sadly , beside helping to secure AZ Kelly has the hero/celebrity card to bring in voters across all the swing States. Shapiro without a doubt is an excellent choice but I'm not convinced he is necessary to win PA.

 

[Trippy Trekker]

I've covered elections in Canada since 1967.

What I learned is that accurate predictions are an accident. The most experienced and able pros have assured me time and time again, that you can predict all you want, but when you're right...it's a total 'educated accident'.

The last election I worked on we went in 6 points behind expecting to lose seven to eight seats.

That stood through election day.

Shock ruled in ALL quarters when we swept to a clear victory with an increase of five seats.....

And these were pros of many years standing, perhaps more than a hundred years of collective experience.

A great Canadian politician once said "polls are for dogs" It's the only thing John George Deifenbaker as EVER right about

I enthusiastically back up my predictions with money.

General Election scheduled for November 5th, 97day sprint! Woo Hoo!

 

[Perotista]

Relaxed, courteous, collaborative discussion and dialog encouraged.

From where I sit, Biden’s decision to drop out in favor of VP Harris totally changed the script! My analysis of the EV Math convinced me, beyond a shadow of doubt, Biden could not win. Team Harris, on the other hand, has a reasonable shot, yet a very narrow path to possible victory.

I can feel palpable excitement build as the World waits for Team Harris to choose a running mate and for the DNC to hold its Convention. I believe Team Harris must pin significant hope on the active participation of a new generation of voters, namely Generation Z.

Team Trump must go on defense to keep its lead in GA(16) and NC(16). Team Harris has already narrowed the gap. I expect Team Trump to still win both those states.

The main race, IMO, comes down to the 78EVs in seven Key Swing States: PA(19), MI(15), VA(13), AZ(11), WI(10), NV(6), NH(4).

Team Harris must win PA, MI, VA, WI, NH. This puts her on the edge of victory! Win in either AZ or NV puts her over the TOP!

Most of the discussion on a running mate currently focuses on either U.S. Senator Mark Kelly from AZ or popular PA Gov. Josh Shapiro.

While both men tout sterling credentials, I give the nod to Gov. Shapiro, age 51. Remember, no state looms more important to Team Harris right now than PA!

Sen. Kelly age 60, looks 70+. He does not have a record of Executive experience as an elected official.

Please remember the ‘Loft Guidelines’. If you feel you have something to add, please join this courteous discussion.

I’d say the big difference is the Democrats with Biden were on the defense, with Harris, they are now on the offense. The dynamics and feel of this election have changed. I would say with Harris, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia are now out of the battleground or swing state column into the Harris/democratic column. This is my only difference.

But all of this is based on early indications with Harris benefiting from what I call the relief factor. Approximately 30% of the electorate were what some on this site described as double haters. Those who disliked both Biden and Trump and didn’t want neither one as the next president. This relief factor that Biden is no longer a candidate, may be temporary or it may be long lasting. Keep in mind, the double haters still dislike Trump, but know little about Harris. I find it very interesting that on 21 July 12% of the electorate were stating they’d vote third party in a Biden vs. Trump matchup. Trump leading Biden by 3.7 points. Today, Trump leads Harris by 1.8 points with those intending on voting third party having dropped to 8%. It’s from those intending on voting third party in a Trump vs. Biden matchup that Harris has been able to cut down Trump’s lead.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...4/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

There haven’t been enough polls done in the swing states to see if Harris has cut down Trump’s lead there. We have to give it more time. Early indications, the relief factor shows that some of the so-called double haters have come over to Harris. Will they stay with Harris once they learn more about her? Will they stay with her once the relief factor of no more Biden vs. Trump has dissipated?

Just keep in mind, more Americans disapprove of Harris than approve.

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[Trippy Trekker]

Short video projects two possible paths: 1. Great Lakes Path; PA(19), MI(15), WI(10) 2. Sunbelt Path: GA(16), NC(16), AZ(11), NV(6).

I have absolutely no confidence in the ‘Sunbelt Path’.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/28/politics/video/harris-trump-electoral-paths-enten-digvid

 

[Callen]

enthusiasm Short video projects two possible paths: 1. Great Lakes Path; PA(19), MI(15), WI(10) 2. Sunbelt Path: GA(16), NC(16), AZ(11), NV(6).

I have absolutely no confidence in the ‘Sunbelt Path’.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/28/politics/video/harris-trump-electoral-paths-enten-digvid

I think it's a mixed path.......be interesting to see how the polls shift. My sense is lack of enthusiasm is what has hurt Dems most and that has changed dramatically. There is still the VEEPstakes and the convention. The next month looks to be all hers.

 

[uptower]

I think as it stands today, and based on historical turnout, then yes it’s the usual ‘narrow path’ story.

But will it still be the case in November? The next 12 weeks is where the campaign’s ability to keep generating new voter enthusiasm will be tested. We know team Trump is tapped out - he’s not getting any new voters. All Harris needs to do is match Bidens turnout (and in the same states as last time) and shell edge Trump out. Okay, same as before.

But what if she can go bigger than that? What if those swing voters and first time voters really do sense change? What if the historically apathetic youth really do listen to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé for once? What if voter turnout exceeds the last one by another five or ten million? Then we could see a juggernaut that completely flips the narrative we hear about every election: all those ‘narrow path’ states become shoo-ins and a few red ones like Florida get flipped as well.

Well dreams are free I suppose.

 

[multivita-man]

You feel more confident than I do about GA.

Not confident about GA but not as gloomy as I was 10 days ago.

We both know Team Harris has to narrow the gap, generate the stronger War Chest and utilize resources effectively. We need to peak at the right time!

Your EV Math analysis tends to reconcile with mine.

I live and vote in Florida. No chance Harris wins Florida. I have not charted (in terms of contributing time and money) yet how I can best help Team Harris.

Agreed, FL is another OH, MO, IN, IA. Used to be purple, now reliably red.

 

[Trippy Trekker]

I think as it stands today, and based on historical turnout, then yes it’s the usual ‘narrow path’ story.

But will it still be the case in November? The next 12 weeks is where the campaign’s ability to keep generating new voter enthusiasm will be tested. We know team Trump is tapped out - he’s not getting any new voters. All Harris needs to do is match Bidens turnout (and in the same states as last time) and shell edge Trump out. Okay, same as before.

But what if she can go bigger than that? What if those swing voters and first time voters really do sense change? What if the historically apathetic youth really do listen to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé for once? What if voter turnout exceeds the last one by another five or ten million? Then we could see a juggernaut that completely flips the narrative we hear about every election: all those ‘narrow path’ states become shoo-ins and a few red ones like Florida get flipped as well.

Well dreams are free I suppose.

I live and vote in Florida. Yeah, haha We can dream! Currently 20 GOP U.S. Reps and 8 DEM U.S. Reps. 2 GOP U.S. Senators - 7 Conservatives on the 7member State Supreme Court. No elected Statewide DEMs. Extreme Right Wing Governor.

State Legislature: 28 GOP Senators vs. 12DEMs. 85 GOP State Reps vs. 35DEMs.

Reality check: Team Harris can’t compete this cycle in Florida. Hopefully, Team Harris can force Team Trump to squander some resources.

 

[Fearandloathing]

I think it's a mixed path.......be interesting to see how the polls shift. My sense is lack of enthusiasm is what has hurt Dems most and that has changed dramatically. There is still the VEEPstakes and the convention. The next month looks to be all hers.

Eh.....


Let's look at this video again the day after the day after the election.

I've seen too many where the forecasts are shredded one hour into the returns and, wahoo, we never see that again!

This one? It's anybody's guess. I suspect the high blood pressure medication market is going to skyrocket! Let's not forget that a bunch of red states are rigged, and that there is an incredible voter suppression system about to be unleashed. Kamala, I suspect is going to need a Kennedy-esque blue wave to win it.

Anything you 'know for sure' is out the proverbial shit door

 

[Callen]

Cooper has removed himself from list of those bring considered. .

 

[gbg3]

I live and vote in Florida. Yeah, haha We can dream! Currently 20 GOP U.S. Reps and 8 DEM U.S. Reps. 2 GOP U.S. Senators - 7 Conservatives on the 7member State Supreme Court. No elected Statewide DEMs. Extreme Right Wing Governor.

State Legislature: 28 GOP Senators vs. 12DEMs. 85 GOP State Reps vs. 35DEMs.

Reality check: Team Harris can’t compete this cycle in Florida. Hopefully, Team Harris can force Team Trump to squander some resources.

State polling is barely getting underway since Harris became the nominee. There is a new Florida poll out today. This one looks just like the polling looked with Biden (Trump +7 over Harris in today's poll).

I'm surprised the swing state polls are appearing so slowly. You'd think the pollsters would have gotten right on that, but I guess it's too early yet. And as you discussed, I don't think Florida is a poll people were anxiously awaiting. We really need to see several pollsters produce new polling for AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and GA.

 

[Callen]

State polling is barely getting underway since Harris became the nominee. There is a new Florida poll out today. This one looks just like the polling looked with Biden (Trump +7 over Harris in today's poll).

Not quite....you neglected to mention that is 3 points gain over where the race stood when it was a Biden/Trump match up. Also the battlegrounds are definitely moving in her favour in terms of favourability over Trump according to new Fox polling.

 

[gbg3]

State polling is barely getting underway since Harris became the nominee. There is a new Florida poll out today. This one looks just like the polling looked with Biden (Trump +7 over Harris in today's poll).

I'm surprised the swing state polls are appearing so slowly. You'd think the pollsters would have gotten right on that, but I guess it's too early yet. And as you discussed, I don't think Florida is a poll people were anxiously awaiting. We really need to see several pollsters produce new polling for AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and GA.

Here is a comparative look at FL with Biden and now with Harris. We have to go all the way back to March to see a Trump/Biden Florida poll from the same pollster (Univ. of North Florida), but that result is just the same the one against Harris now. So far, in the average, Biden did a bit better than Harris is doing in Florida, but state polls are only trickling in so far. I doubt Dems will expect much out of Florida. This quote below sounds pretty reasonable for that state.

I live and vote in Florida. Yeah, haha We can dream! Currently 20 GOP U.S. Reps and 8 DEM U.S. Reps. 2 GOP U.S. Senators - 7 Conservatives on the 7member State Supreme Court. No elected Statewide DEMs. Extreme Right Wing Governor.

State Legislature: 28 GOP Senators vs. 12DEMs. 85 GOP State Reps vs. 35DEMs.

Reality check: Team Harris can’t compete this cycle in Florida. Hopefully, Team Harris can force Team Trump to squander some resources.

 

[Callen]

ere is a comparative look at FL with Biden and now with Harris. We have to go all the way back to March to see a Trump/Biden Florida poll from the same pollster (Univ. of North Florida), but that result is just the same the one against Harris now. So far, in the average, Biden did a bit better than Harris is doing in Florida,

That sure looks like a 3 point drop for Trump vs Harris compared to Trump vs Biden