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Sweden Keeps on Winning Path!

maxparrish

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Remember when Sweden was "doomed" because it did very little to stop the pandemic? Recall all the forum hysteria a few months ago, the uninformed assumption that pandemics exponentially increase forever unless aggressive measures are taken to suppress it? Recall those of us who pointed out that most infections are polynomial (not exponential) with a sudden rise and then decline IF left "unsuppressed"?

Well, it looks like Sweden just proved team apocalypse embarrassingly wrong and the critics right.

Avlidna is "fatalities" in english
Sjukdomsfall is "cases" in english
per dag is "per day" in english











Here are the key takeaways:

1. The classic Gompers S-Curve for unsuppressed pandemic cases has been achieved, as predicted by Team Reality.
2. The total deaths per day has reached near zero for this mainly unsuppressed pandemic, as predicted by Team Reality
3. The age distribution of deaths has been heavily weighted towards senior citizens (1/2 or more in rest homes) as predicted by Team Reality.
4. Sweden has attained herd immunity in AT LEAST two of its three largest areas of infection.

In fact, only 70 people below the age of 50 have died from COVID in Sweden.

The future? A hotspot might occur in a second wave in the fall/winter (Malmo area) because evidence for herd immunity for that area is uncertain. But there is little doubt that where 50 percent of Sweden's people live, in densely populated areas, herd immunity is nearly complete.
 
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An interactive visualization of the exponential spread of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

Norway has 5.4 million people, with 9034 total cases and 255 deaths.
Finland has 5.5 million people with 7340 total cases and 328 deaths.
Sweden has 10.3 million people, with 78,048 total cases and 5639 deaths.

Stop peddling your accelerationist propaganda, max. You have no clue what you are talking about.
 



Thanks, I was sharpening my pencil and doing some long division; made my head hurt!




Basically, Sweden has fewer knuckleheads than we do........
 

Nice cherry picking:

Belgium has 11.6 million people with 60.094 total cases and 9,805 deaths.

So if lockdowns were supposed to work, why does Belgium have almost double the deaths compared to herd immunity Sweden?

Coronavirus Update (Live): 14,969,351 Cases and 615,853 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
 

You'd think at some point you'd mention that they are ranked #5 worldwide for deaths per million at 560. Countries that did worse than Sweden include UK, Spain, and Italy, but since Sweden did so little testing, they no doubt missed cases other countries caught, and might be the worst at this point in the pandemic

I'm not sure how being 5th worst in the world proves their approach the correct one, especially given that their closest neighbors had a small fraction of the deaths/million experienced in Sweden. And Finland, for example, had their last death on June 26th, one death that day. Norway's last death was July 17th - 1 death. Sweden reports 10 dead today. Win for Sweden!!

Overall:
Sweden - 560/million.
Finland - 59/million
Norway - 47/million.

Win for Sweden!!!
 

I won't stop peddling reality, no matter how much you cherry pick your comparisons. However, before we look at other nearby countries, even the basis of the numbers you present it is meaningless quibbling over the negligible. Sweden lost but .00056th of its population, most being the very old (not helped by the fact that Sweden does not put those 80 and over in ICU's).

And compared to a broader selection of nearby states, there numbers are decent:

Belgium: 846 deaths per million
France: 452 d per m
UK: 669 d per m
Sweden: 559 d per m

And you do know, by the way, that even Norway's lead COVID official has acknowledged that their initial infection seeding was so low that a lockdown wasn't even necessary?
 

Part of it is they count all suspected deaths, and they got hit hard in nursing homes, and have a very large nursing home population per capita.

But if you want to use Belgium, you also need to explain Norway and Finland on the other side, with 1/10th the deaths per million of Sweden and also showing "herd immunity" based on number of ongoing cases.
 

Sweden has the 5th highest death rate per million in the world. That's a fact. I don't see how that is evidence of them doing a great job. You could compare them to some states if you want. NC has about the same population - 160/million.

And if you don't care about the old dying, that's fine. Some people do care and don't dismiss their deaths as irrelevant.
 
maxparrish said:
I won't stop peddling reality, no matter how much you cherry pick your comparisons.
Click to expand...
:lamo

You COVID deniers will never accept facts that don't suit your ignorant narrative. I could point out how well Japan, South Korea, mainland Europe, New Zealand, etc. have done; I could point out how poorly Brazil and the US have done; but we both know that you will not accept those facts. Because you just don't care. This was never about saving lives. 140,000 fallen Americans mean nothing to you. Nothing. All that matters is devotion to your Dear Leader no matter what the cost.

Belgium: 846 deaths per million
France: 452 d per m
UK: 669 d per m
Sweden: 559 d per m
Click to expand...

There you go cherry-picking your facts again. :laughat:

Your ilk believes that deaths are the only thing that count--and you won't even believe those numbers when they fail suit your accelerationist narrative. You believe that literally any COVID-19 result other than a death is not a problem. Brain damage? Not a problem. Amputations? Not a problem.

Take your accelerationist propaganda back to Russia.
 

The OP writer has made his accelerationism clear.

He should know that when old people are told that their lives do not matter, they listen.
 

As usual youre just BSing, trying to make excuses. You may keep lying, but the numbers dont.

The fact is there is no guarantee that lockdowns were effective, if it did, then Belgium's death toll wouldnt be as high as it is. Things are not as cut and dried as you libs would have us believe.
 

You're as shortsighted and blindered as the post author in reply #2. Look, when other European countries of western Europe also suffer similar or worse outcomes as Sweden, the question isn't why Sweden is number 5, but why did four other Western European countries that used lockdowns, masks, etc. rank in positions 1 through 4, followed by Sweden (5th) and France (6th)?

And in the context of Western Europe, it is something to brag about given the tradeoffs. Unlike these other countries Sweden did very little to mitigate, let alone suppress, the pandemic and did as well or better than most of the major countries of Western Europe (Germany being the exception).

In the process they have achieved near herd immunity, and mitigated some of the harshest long-term impacts on their economy (such as a massive new debt).

In return for .00056th of its population, most being in their 70s and above, Sweden decided to pay a very modest price now in favor of the same price not being paid later with a second wave and incurring much more financial and social cost.

It's a model the US should have followed.
 
PoS said:
Nice cherry picking:

Belgium has 11.6 million people with 60.094 total cases and 9,805 deaths.
Click to expand...


maxparrish said:
And compared to a broader selection of nearby states, there numbers are decent:

Belgium: 846 deaths per million
France: 452 d per m
UK: 669 d per m
Sweden: 559 d per m
Click to expand...

Among 48 European countries, Norway, Finland and Sweden are #3,4,5 for lowest population density (15, 18, 25 P/km^2 respectively).

Spain 94
France 119
Italy 206
UK 281
Belgium 383

So yeah, it makes more sense to compare Sweden to its neighbors, not only because of more similar cultures, travel patterns, use of public transit, but also because of similar population density.
 

Calling me a liar when you can't point to any lies is kind of pathetic. It's SAD!! really.

And I don't think it's clear cut at all if the question is what approach works best. I don't even think it's going to be consistent from country to country and it sure as hell will vary from a massive city like NYC that's a global hub with lots of public transportation versus the local town near me, population 18,000, that probably sees a (1) foreigner per week, and not much in the way of visitors from other areas of town, much less the country.

What I'm pointing out is Sweden so far has the fifth highest death rate on the planet, so that's not exactly a ringing endorsement of their approach as we sit here in July 2020. That might change in December if Finland and Norway have a big surge in the Fall and Sweden avoids that. But we're at not even half time if this was a game, and so I don't want to call the score just yet.

Furthermore, lots of the determination depends on how much we value the lives lost. That's subjective in many ways. What's clear is Sweden, versus its neighbors, lost about 5,000 lives more than their neighbors on a per capita basis. And I don't think they've experienced much less in the way of economic pain. Is saving 5,000 sufficient to justify a shutdown? Who knows - likely depends on if those 5,000 are you, your parents or grandparents, or someone else's family who you don't know....
 
Speaking of uninformed. Does that go hand in hand with ignorance?
 

I don't think it's a simple question, which is in part why your end zone dance celebrating Sweden is not defensible. Why not compare Sweden to its literal next door neighbors with similar cultures and population density? Why not compare Sweden to NC with similar population and a large rural population, but big cities of Charlotte and the tri-cities area of Raleigh-Durham, and that had 1/3 the deaths per million?


Yeah, you just Germany out there. Also Switzerland and Austria and Denmark. Does 1/5 or less the death rate of Sweden prove their approaches failed compared to Sweden (Switzerland was only less than half)?

In the process they have achieved near herd immunity, and mitigated some of the harshest long-term impacts on their economy (such as a massive new debt).
Click to expand...

How do you know they've achieved herd immunity. Finland and Norway are showing fewer cases and deaths, with lockdowns. Do did they get herd immunity as well with 1/10th the death rate, proving their approach a failure? Makes no sense.


None of the data you present back that up. Sorry. It's going to take a lot more than you did, and a much longer time frame to figure that out. It will take actual studies, after we're through this entire thing, which won't be until some time in 2021. We're not half way through this yet.
 

Comparing one Scandinavian to other Scandinavian countries is cherry picking? Hrmm...

Anyway, here's the answer, as far as I could find for you...

Coronavirus: Why so many people are dying in Belgium - BBC News
 

And Belgium is a neighbor of Sweden? I didn't think so.

And Belgium just has 2 land borders with the rest of Europe? Nope, also not true.

And Belgium has as it's neighbors also countries with just 10 million people living there? No, that is also untrue. Belgium has neighboring countries with 167 million people living there.

And Sweden is one of the central countries of Europe, with all the EU government buildings and thus loads of foreign travel? No? But Belgium is the center of Europe when it comes to politics.

And Sweden is one of the biggest ports in Europe from where millions of containers are shipped all through Europe. I don't think so, but Belgium is.

And last but not least, Belgium has more population, a lot less land mass, more density and more cities that Sweden has.

So comparing Belgium and Sweden is just ludicrous and illogical.
 

Except Belgium, France and the UK are much more densely populated, and not just a little but but massively.

London for example has almost as many people living there as the entire country of Sweden but on just a percentage of the size of Sweden. Actually in the metropolitan area of London there are more than 14 million people, that is a few million more than in the entire country of Sweden. And again on just a percentage of Sweden's size.

In the metropolitan area of Paris are also more people than in the entire country of Sweden. 12.5 million to be precise, so it is densely populated as well.

Population density and likely visitors/tourists to a country have huge effects on the spread of the corona virus. All the other countries you mention are densely populated and a magnet for foreign visitors. Sweden however is not.

When people look to the business capitals of Europe, London is the first and maybe Paris second, Sweden's capital not so much.

You are making baseless nonsensical claims, pure and simple.
 

Yes they are beating the U.S. in deaths per 100,000 and we can't have that. We need more deaths to catch up. Will you volunteer?
 

It is you who is short sighted. Sweden has a disgracefully high death rate compared to comparable countries. Comparing Sweden to Western European countries is nonsense.

Sweden's economy will suffer too, and the bit less debt is paid in blood of elderly people, great achievement :roll:
 

The dilemma for us in the US is that our healthcare facilities would be overwhelmed and we literally do not want people dying on the street.
 
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