Stock prices decline signaling Economic depression VS uneven & orderly tone = BUY signal?

[post]

I've been trading stocks online on my own account for 24 years. I've never seen a decline with the characteristics of this one that became much broader only since Wednesday, January 4, but began in some former high flying "growth" stocks as long ago as September, but still has not appreciably affected DOW Index's 26 of 30 stocks under Price to Earnings ratio (P/E) of 30, except INTC (Intel) with a noticeable price decline despite a P/E of only 10!

I want opinions of whether recent movements in stock prices signal that it's more likely stocks that haven't declined much, soon will, or that stocks that have declined seem attractive buy candidates, even if just for a quick bounce in price and a quick exit of an immediate new long buy position.
Do you have heightened recent concerns, as I now do, that these price declines cannot possibly be in reaction to the Federal Reserve signaling a one percent interest rate increase and the Fed ending its purchases of U.S. gov. bonds and moving to begin to sell off the bonds it is holding, in competition with the U.S. Treasury's own anticipated auctioning of new bond debt, permitting market demand to set the rate of interest the government pays on new debt issuance.

This forum restricts images to 3 per post, so I'm going to post 3 times with three stock chart images in each. These first three have all experienced dramatic price declines. The first, UPST, sells an alternative credit scoring program to lenders it claims is more accurate than Fair Isaac's FICO credit risk scoring but qualifies a more diverse and larger number of potential borrowers with result of less payment defaults. The next two stocks, MRNA and NVAX, both manufacture FDA approved, effective Covid-19 vaccines and are forecast to sell as much vaccine as they are able to produce and distribute. All three stocks are high P/E, exceptionally high projected growth.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

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[post]

All three of these stocks, NFLX, ROKU, and DIS, depend on online viewer increases, mostly from home during ongoing pandemic.
NFLX and DIS have high content production costs, ROKU depends on viewer growth but has shifted from depending on revenue
from sales of the streaming hardware devices it designs and manufactures for TVs, to a much greater revenue stream growth from
its advertising platform. DIS is a DOW 30 stock with a P/E of 125!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX?p=NFLX&.tsrc=fin-srch P/E 35.36

Roku, Inc. (ROKU) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS&.tsrc=fin-srch
P/E 125.58

 

[post]

Reserved for posting additional stock charts....

 

[Luther]

I don't know a lot about stocks or want to know

But I did cash out my mutual fund because I don't trust them or our Gov

I'm not losing half of my retirement

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Dont know about any of that, unrelated:

Lets say I had $50K buried in a hole somewhere.

I dont want to keep losing money on it every year through inflation and COL, and am pretty much completely ignorant of stocks.

What would be my best approach to getting some of this money invested so its growing instead of shrinking?
Maybe a mutual fund?
What about these online robo-brokers? Seems that would be as good a way to invest as any. Seems like fees and stuff could eat into you.
How about some kind of a 401K setup?
I know I could get a book about this and read it (and I will), but any quick tips as to one thing in particular I should really be looking at?

In regards to your OP....do you feel some sort of big correction is coming?
Seems like they prop it up no matter what happens. I know its not "money in the bank" as far as being 100% secure, but still seems like the markets always make out eventually regardless of what happens to the economy in general.

Thanks.

 

[LouC]

America and the World, in my opinion, are literally in unchartered territory.

It is worrisome.

 

[post]

Damn! Missed the 20 minute limit on the edit window!

The next two stocks, BA and CRM are also DOW 30 index stocks. BA is one of a kind, has no P/E due to pandemic and 737 model "difficulties" losses, and is mired in huge long term debt from recent borrowing, and CRM has a P/E of 120 ! CRM aka Salesforce.com, has a flamboyant, charismatic ceo, (as if TSLA doesn't...) Marc Benioff , who so far has made serial acquisitions of other high growth companies, overpaying with inflated shares of salesforce.com stock which had been rising on the strength of his promotion and purchases, increasing the revenue of his corp., giving the appearance of higher growth rate, along with the bump up in share price from managing to get onto the DOW 30 index about a year ago.... rising in share price until.... it no longer is rising, or even holding.

HD, Home Depot, P/E 28, and DE, (John) Deere & Co. P/E 19, are also DOW 30 stocks and their share prices have hardly declined, compared
to the examples of the higher growth stocks I've presented examples of that have taken 50 to 75 percent, "haircuts"!

TSLA is not in DOW 30, but in S&P 500 stock index, has a P/E of 308 and is a "cult stock," entirely divorced from economic fundamentals!

The Boeing Company (BA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM?p=CRM&.tsrc=fin-srch
P/E 120.26

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA&.tsrc=fin-srch
P/E 308.26

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I don't know a lot about stocks or want to know

But I did cash out my mutual fund because I don't trust them or our Gov

I'm not losing half of my retirement

Very unwise decision, you’ll lose out all when the market returns.

 

[Luther]

Very unwise decision, you’ll lose out all when the market returns.

As my mother use to say....

" We...... shall see"....

 

[Luther]

Very unwise decision, you’ll lose out all when the market returns.

I am almost retirement age

Money becomes less important as the older you get

 

[multivita-man]

Interesting charts. I'm admittedly not much of a stock picker, more of an indexer myself. I don't really got frothy over how markets perform during a particular stretch, but I tend to keep up with economics in general. It's unclear to me whether markets have priced in future rate hikes (possibly 3 or 4 hikes of 25 BP each in 2022) and future supply chains. I suspect prices have tried to factor in the hikes but as I said on another thread, what's not known is the amount of private debt out there. I'm not talking HH debt necessarily, but corporate/business debt. I wonder how many companies are over-leveraged.

 

[post]

I don't know a lot about stocks or want to know

But I did cash out my mutual fund because I don't trust them or our Gov

I'm not losing half of my retirement

Good for you! I hope you cashed out between November and January 3, 2022 !

 

[post]

Interesting charts. I'm admittedly not much of a stock picker, more of an indexer myself. I don't really got frothy over how markets perform during a particular stretch, but I tend to keep up with economics in general. It's unclear to me whether markets have priced in future rate hikes (possibly 3 or 4 hikes of 25 BP each in 2022) and future supply chains. I suspect prices have tried to factor in the hikes but as I said on another thread, what's not known is the amount of private debt out there. I'm not talking HH debt necessarily, but corporate/business debt. I wonder how many companies are over-leveraged.

I think, and I'm betting on the selling being vastly overdone compared to the multiple 0.25 percent anticipated Fed rate increases (up to 4 in 2022), but the withdrawal of Fed liquidity injections from its gov. bond buying would be more worrisome if it wasn't for the rest of govs selling investment grade bonds likely keeping their rates near or at zero. Germany just announced escalation up to zero. The U.S. formally avoided reducing to sub zero. So, I maintain that HD and DE are overpriced because of "sector rotation" from high growth to the perceived "best of the best," in a flight to quality, stemming the fall of both of those stocks, a "crowded trade."

The examples I chose to present were never worth anywhere near $300 to $485, but are certainly much lower risk to buy now that the analysts
who allegedly "specialize" in evaluating them have followed the traded prices down, lowering their lofty projections of as high as $500 to
$1,000 per share to at or even below the prices they trade at, now!

There were predictions months ago as high as a rise to $1,000. it closed Friday at $152 !

Roku Inc Forecast - CNNMoney.com - CNN Business​

https://money.cnn.com › quote › forecast › forecast › s...
The 26 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Roku Inc have a median target of 360.00, with a high estimate of 550.00 and a low estimate of 124.00.

Roku stock forecast: Where next for the streaming pioneer?​

https://capital.com › roku-stock-forecast
Jan 4, 2022 — Roku stock analysis: Share price performance ... Roku stock 4-year forecast, meanwhile, the price could hit $876 by December 2026,

 

[Luther]

America and the World, in my opinion, are literally in unchartered territory.

It is worrisome.

Yep, with America going on 30 TRILLION in debt that is accurate

 

[LouC]

Yep, with America going on 30 TRILLION in debt that is accurate

I think we are headed quickly to the time to pay the piper as it were.

 

[Luther]

I think we are headed quickly to the time to pay the piper as it were.

Yep

Fantasy Island episodes also came to an end

 

[danielpalos]

I believe we need to upgrade economic capacity by upgrading infrastructure.

 

[Luther]

I believe we need to upgrade economic capacity by upgrading infrastructure.

Well, Vain politicians just did that no?

 

[danielpalos]

Congress can command our economy through fiscal projects and stimulate our economy in the process.

 

[Luther]

Congress can command our economy through fiscal projects and stimulate our economy in the process.

And also put us in even more greater national debt when they said it would pay for themselves(They lied)

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Yep, with America going on 30 TRILLION in debt that is accurate

I dont sleep a wink anymore, tossing and turning nights.
Worried sick about the "national debt".



nah....just kidding. This is me:

 

[CaughtInThe]

But I did cash out my mutual fund because I don't trust them or our Gov

My inlaws did that as Obama was coming into office. They missed the entire ride up.

 

[Luther]

I dont sleep a wink anymore, tossing and turning nights.
Worried sick about the "national debt".



nah....just kidding. This is me:

View attachment 67370684

Atta boy!

You see, the western Roman people once thought everything was just "Butterflies and rainbows" at one time too

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Atta boy!

You see, the western Roman people once thought everything was just "Butterflies and rainbows" at one time too

Oh, I dont think "everything fine", obviously it is not, I just don't give a !

All the money this screwed up country gives to war profiteers and stuff like Halliburton and Blackwater, and I'm going to sit around and worry about infrastructure and my excellent Socialist BidenCare™ healthcare plan?

BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Not bloody likely! Spend more! Spend so much that we have to cancel our phony "wars"! As long as there is money for phony "wars" and handouts for Israel...I figure theres enough money for ME too!!

I can TOTALLY support THAT!!!!

 

[Luther]

Oh, I dont think "everything fine", obviously it is not, I just don't give a !

All the money this screwed up country gives to war profiteers and stuff like Halliburton and Blackwater, and I'm going to sit around and worry about infrastructure and my excellent Socialist BidenCare™ healthcare plan?

BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Not bloody likely! Spend more! Spend so much that we have to cancel our phony "wars"! As long as there is money for phony "wars" and handouts for Israel...I figure theres enough money for ME too!!

I can TOTALLY support THAT!!!!

I just don't give a !

You don't know it but that is exactly the citizenry our Founders FEARED.....