Sprint to the Finish--Election 2022

[Jay59]

Voting is in three days. Plays your predictions.

 

[Rumpel]

Sorry - but I keep reading: "Finnish Election 2022" and wondering whether there are any elections in Finland in 2022.

 

[Jay59]

Sunday Has the RCP map back to +3 for Republicans and they project +15 in the House with 34 tossups +31 average.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/house/elections-map.html#previous_changes

538 also backed a tiny step--Republicans 54/46 favorites to win the Senate, 83/17 in the House.

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ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Tomorrow will be a big data day. Expect updates from everyone.

 

[Rumpel]

Voting is in three days. Plays your predictions.

What do you mean by:

PURPLE BANANA?

 

[anatta]

Voting is in three days. Plays your predictions.

the fun part of politics.. Everything is screaming Red Wave, but the Senate seats are too close to call
My prediction is Repubs pick up NV and Georgia by runoff. The wild card is Pennsylvania with their 'peculiarities' of counting
But i dont think Phily and Pitts will have the turnout the rural red districts will

It's a safe bet they pick up 2 which would be outstanding if not a tsunami

 

[Jay59]

What do you mean by:

PURPLE BANANA?

That's the none of above/I don't want to answer option.

 

[Rumpel]

Phily and Pitts

Sounds like a novel or a film title

 

[Big Brother]

My prediction: Tomorrow night it will look like a red tsunami, but as the mail in votes get counted that wave turns blue and the demonrats pick up 25 more seats in the senate and 50 more in the house. Then the demonrats immediately start to viciously attack anyone who dares to have a suspicion of cheating and all rush to DP to chastise all who could even possibly think the adorable demonrats could ever cheat. Then the demonrats threaten any polling employee who thinks about whistleblowing and pays off any judges who have to try any cases involving the cheating. The MSM goes full Joy Reid and suggests election deniers be stripped naked and publicly stoned to death. As a reward to the swamp for being complicit in the cheating and funding it, the new congress passes a whopping 10 trillion USD bill that directly rewards them for their efforts. Inflation goes through the roof and even the demonrats can't take it anymore and the demonrats storm the castle seeking the head of Nancy Pelosi. But, in 2024 the demonrat elites do it all over again. Welcome to the new Democracy.

 

[Jay59]

For what it may be worth, Newt Gingrich is predicting a massive red wave--+3 - 5 in the Senate, +44 in the House.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/11/04/gingrich_2022_prediction_senate_will_go_3_to_5_with_pickups_in_nh_nv_az_ga_without_runoff_44_seats_in_house.html

 

[Jay59]

The day before the voting 70% think that Republicans will win both houses.

 

[Jay59]

UVa brings out its final position. These are just the changes since two weeks ago. All the Senate tossups are Democratic seats. Any REpublican win is a pick-up.

Final Ratings for the 2022 Election - Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. — Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. — Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship...

centerforpolitics.org

Senator	Old Rating	New Rating
Raphael Warnock (D-GA)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
C. Cortez Masto (D-NV)	Toss-up	Leans Democratic
PA Open (Toomey, R)	Leans Democratic	Leans Republican

In the House they are predicting +24.

Member/District	Old Rating	New Rating
CA-13 Open (No inc.)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Mike Levin (D, CA-49)	Leans Democratic	Leans Republican
David Valadao (R, CA-22)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Jahana Hayes (D, CT-5)	Leans Democratic	Leans Republican
IL-17 Open (Bustos, D)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1)	Toss-up	Leans Democratic
Jared Golden (D, ME-2)	Toss-up	Leans Democratic
Dan Kildee (D, MI-8)	Toss-up	Leans Democratic
Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-7)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Angie Craig (D, MN-2)	Toss-up	Leans Democratic
Susie Lee (D, NV-3)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
NY-3 Open (Suozzi, D)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
NY-19 Open (No inc.)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
OH-13 Open (Ryan, D)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Susan Wild (D, PA-7)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
PA-17 Open (Lamb, D)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
RI-2 Open (Langevin, D)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28)	Toss-up	Leans Democratic
TX-34 (Flores/Gonzalez)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Elaine Luria (D, VA-2)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Kim Schrier (D, WA-8)	Leans Democratic	Leans Republican

 

[Rumpel]

*sprint!*

 

[Jay59]

*sprint!*

I suppose T-Mobile is an option or maybe Verizon.

 

[Jay59]

The polls have closed in many eastern and midwestern states.

As of this time, Republicans are taking the House but Democrats should not jump off the building.

 

[Jay59]

The day-of-election vote is clearly heavy for the Republicans. in several key states.

It's too early to call Georgia for Walker but the early result is favorable and the Governor race is dominant to the Republican Kemp. The third-party candidate is running about 2%, If neither main party candidate gets at to at least 50%+1 vote, there will be a run off.