Shocking win/loss predictions

[Patriotic Voter]

Name a heavy underdog in either the Senate or House of Representatives (or both) who might defeat the more popular candidate and offer at least one reason why it could happen. Or you can do the reverse - name a heavy favorite who might loses and give a reason for that.

I am not saying it is likely such a scenario will occur, but we all know Doug Jones reportedly was not supposed to be elected in 2017. We all know to expect the unexpected on Election Day.

 

[Chomsky]

Name a heavy underdog in either the Senate or House of Representatives (or both) who might defeat the more popular candidate and offer at least one reason why it could happen. Or you can do the reverse - name a heavy favorite who might loses and give a reason for that.

I am not saying it is likely such a scenario will occur, but we all know Doug Jones reportedly was not supposed to be elected in 2017. We all know to expect the unexpected on Election Day.

How about I name a state? Texas. For Biden. Unlikely. But an outside shot.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

How about I name a state? Texas. For Biden. Unlikely. But an outside shot.

This is the Congressional races forum. Do you have any bold predictions for Senate and/or House of Representatives upsets?

 

[azgreg]

Hiral Tipirneni in the AZ 6th.

 

[Drawdown]

Cameron Webb (D) wins the Virginia 5th. Being Falwell's hand picked standard bearer months ago not gonna be such a plus on election day given all the happenings since.

 

[Far right dem]

daines, graham and perdue all lose.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Daines, Graham and Perdue all lose.

Graham and Perdue are in tight races. IIRC they have been flipping with their Democratic challengers for the lead.

 

[Chomsky]

This is the Congressional races forum. Do you have any bold predictions for Senate and/or House of Representatives upsets?

Oops! Sorry! I came in through the front-page 'latest threads' field, and didn't realize where I was.

O.K., it might not be so bold anymore, but I would not be surprised to see Lindsey Graham get tossed. Especially, if Biden has a strong showing in the state. In fact, I believe many of the contested currently Red State Senate seats will be predicated upon Biden's showing in their respective states.

 

[Eriech]

McCarthy Speaker on January 3

 

[Patriotic Voter]

McCarthy Speaker on January 3

Is McCarthy expected to lose next week?

 

[Eriech]

Is McCarthy expected to lose next week?

No doubt Nancy is expecting to be speaker next year. My "shocking" predictions is she won't be. McCarthy will; when Republicans flip the house.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

No doubt Nancy is expecting to be speaker next year. My "shocking" predictions is she won't be. McCarthy will; when Republicans flip the House.

You did not answer my question.

 

[upsideguy]

How about I name a state? Texas. For Biden. Unlikely. But an outside shot.

I agree. The core demographics of Texas has it as purple. Texans, as a rule, however, just have not voted at the same level as most states.

There is reason to believe that Texas COULD flip this time round. Texas has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic with a pathetic response from its Republican leadership. The conditions for repudiation of Republican leadership is there; the turnout has been huge. T Texas already has exceeded the 2016 vote total.

Nothing would better promote the complete exorcism of Trumpism from the Republican party better than Texas flashing blue in 2020. America needs a healthy Republican / conservative policy that is founded in a coherent political philosophy that has a clear vision for the future. Trumpism is anything but that.

 

[upsideguy]

No doubt Nancy is expecting to be speaker next year. My "shocking" predictions is she won't be. McCarthy will; when Republicans flip the house.

"Shocking" because there is absolutely no foundation for that as well over 210 seats are deemed solid blue. As such, your prediction is bordering on delusional. Perhaps you could lay out for all of us a cogent argument for this, but I am skeptical. It appears to be wishful thinking / fantasy.

You do realize the expectation is that democrats will pick-up 5-10 seats in 2020?

Pushing Deep Into G.O.P. Turf, Democrats Are Poised to Expand House Majority (Published 2020)

House Democrats are training their resources on once-solid Republican footholds in affluent suburban districts where voters feel alienated by President Trump.

www.nytimes.com

Democrats Could Pick up 20 House Seats, Most in Districts Trump Won in 2016

Fifteen of the races are in congressional districts that President Donald Trump won in 2016.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Patriotic Voter]

"Shocking" because there is absolutely no foundation for that as well over 210 seats are deemed solid blue. As such, your prediction is bordering on delusional. Perhaps you could lay out for all of us a cogent argument for this, but I am skeptical. It appears to be wishful thinking / fantasy.

You do realize the expectation is that democrats will pick-up 5-10 seats in 2020?

Pushing Deep Into G.O.P. Turf, Democrats Are Poised to Expand House Majority (Published 2020)

House Democrats are training their resources on once-solid Republican footholds in affluent suburban districts where voters feel alienated by President Trump.

www.nytimes.com

Democrats Could Pick up 20 House Seats, Most in Districts Trump Won in 2016

Fifteen of the races are in congressional districts that President Donald Trump won in 2016.

www.newsweek.com

First he needs to answer my question, which could not be more clearly asked.. People who fail to do that have no reasons to make claims such as McCarthy becoming Speaker of the House. of Representatives.

 

[Eriech]

Tell me why the Democrats deserve to keep the majority recently won 2018? They have been an epic failure if stopping Trump was their mandete.

Speaker McCarthy.....you heard it here first

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Tell me why the Democrats deserve to keep the majority recently won 2018. They have been an epic failure if stopping Trump was their mandete.

Speaker McCarthy.....you heard it here first.

I will not tell you anything until you answer my question. I know you can read the thread title perfectly, so there is no reason not to.

 

[Eriech]

Pelosi will lose. Not her seat in the house but her majority. Not sure I can be more clear. The reason why is she does not deserve the majority and that there will be a red wave evidenced by the huge enthusiasm for Trump. If you want me to cite polls that have so thoroughly been discredited in 2016 I will not play.

You heard it hear first. Speaker McCarthy. Uou sought an out of the box prediction. This is mine.

 

[JMR]

No doubt Nancy is expecting to be speaker next year. My "shocking" predictions is she won't be. McCarthy will; when Republicans flip the house.

That will likely happen long after Nancy is no longer with us.

 

[JMR]

I agree. The core demographics of Texas has it as purple. Texans, as a rule, however, just have not voted at the same level as most states.

There is reason to believe that Texas COULD flip this time round. Texas has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic with a pathetic response from its Republican leadership. The conditions for repudiation of Republican leadership is there; the turnout has been huge. T Texas already has exceeded the 2016 vote total.

Nothing would better promote the complete exorcism of Trumpism from the Republican party better than Texas flashing blue in 2020. America needs a healthy Republican / conservative policy that is founded in a coherent political philosophy that has a clear vision for the future. Trumpism is anything but that.

I think Texas has become purple enough to send a few more democrats to the house.

 

[Chomsky]

I agree. The core demographics of Texas has it as purple. Texans, as a rule, however, just have not voted at the same level as most states.

There is reason to believe that Texas COULD flip this time round. Texas has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic with a pathetic response from its Republican leadership. The conditions for repudiation of Republican leadership is there; the turnout has been huge. T Texas already has exceeded the 2016 vote total.

Nothing would better promote the complete exorcism of Trumpism from the Republican party better than Texas flashing blue in 2020. America needs a healthy Republican / conservative policy that is founded in a coherent political philosophy that has a clear vision for the future. Trumpism is anything but that.

Thanks for a great response. I pretty much agree with everything.

Texas turning Blue would be an excellent Coda to this Trumpian opera.

 

[skeptic llc]

America needs a healthy Republican / conservative policy that is founded in a coherent political philosophy that has a clear vision for the future. Trumpism is anything but that.

Yes to this. Currently the only thing that can save me from the left is ... even crazier stuff on the right.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Pelosi will lose. Not her seat in the House but her majority. Not sure I can be more clear. The reason why is she does not deserve the majority and that there will be a red wave evidenced by the huge enthusiasm for Trump. If you want me to cite polls that have so thoroughly been discredited in 2016 I will not play.

You heard it hear first. Speaker McCarthy. You sought an out of the box prediction. This is mine.

Did you even read the question I asked? I was very clear in my original post. Read it before responding.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Currently Mississippi is "likely Republican" on the 270towin map.

 

[The AntiDonald]

McCarthy Speaker on January 3

House is expected to pick up at least 8 more seats. That doesn't make McCarthy the speaker.