Yup - switch to the likely voter model in October. The model is based on things like voter interest, stated intention to vote, etc. - many people won't be able to predict these things with much accuracy until we get really close to the election.Is this something they always do? Change the format in their polling based on timeline of the elections?
What you believe is what you want to believe because you believe it. It is immaterial to me and means nothing.
Romney will win and the last few weeks will see a plethora of attack ads that make the Swift boat ads look like a sunday school picnic. Count on it.
Can it get a whole hell of a lot worse than trying to pin somebody's death on Romney?
....yesterday Gallup showed Obama 50, Romney 45. Today Romney's gained 4 points and Obama's lost 3? That's a big shift over night.
Then again, I have about 30% confidence in ANY of these polls.
I agree there's been some good results for Romney, and it has me excited. I'm not sure he's actually ahead though, as a lot of these polls are in the stage right now where all their data is after Obama's bad debate but some of it is still before the good jobs numbers. It's certainly good news for Romney that he isn't down 3 or 4 points like he was before the debate though.
Obama can put out attack ads too, and he is certainly raising enough money. Your explanation lacks merit, and seems to be more an attack on campaign finance reform. Also, before the debate you said Obama would definetly win , now you have suddenly changed your mind, and Romney will certainly win because of attack ads. Which Haymarket is right, the one before the debates, or the one after?What you believe is what you want to believe because you believe it. It is immaterial to me and means nothing.
Romney will win and the last few weeks will see a plethora of attack ads that make the Swift boat ads look like a sunday school picnic. Count on it.
Obama can put out attack ads too, and he is certainly raising enough money. Your explanation lacks merit, and seems to be more an attack on campaign finance reform. Also, before the debate you said Obama would definetly win , now you have suddenly changed your mind, and Romney will certainly win because of attack ads. Which Haymarket is right, the one before the debates, or the one after?
If Obama loses this election, against Romney, then it is just embarrasing for Democrats. Democrats should crush Romney, but Obama seems to lack energy and trust. If Obama loses against Romney the uninspiring flip flopper, then imagine how badly he would lose if Romney was not a flipflopper, not a rich man who doesn't care about the 47%, same opinions as now, and an inspiring candidate.
I think intrade is right, and they are predicting a 60% chance of a Obama win. That is because the underlining fundementals hasn't changed. My bet is that something else will come up that will drag Romney down again. The question is, will Obama be able to perform in the next debates. If not, then he is in trouble.
0% objectivity? Seriously? I questioned the validity of Romney being AHEAD, and I'm planning on voting for him. How exactly am I displaying 0% objectivity? 0% objectivity would be me screaming about how today's poll is totally accurate and yesterday's was obviously a bunch of nonsense. But I didn't say that.
So maybe don't throw around passive aggressive insults and dismissals, especially when it's obviously bull****.
I wasn't throwing around passive aggressive insults... I was blatantly outright making insults at someone who would circulate a story that Obama was up 5% pts without researching that the very same site also put one out with Romney having a 2% pt lead...
I would also point you to the other polls which have come out which have shown Romney with anywhere from a 1% to a 4% lead...
Still... the multitude of polls post-debate all have a tie or Romney with a lead... and that has included polls like Pew Research and Ipsos/Reuters which have typically been left leaning polls...
Questioning Romney being ahead in spite of numerous sources of evidence is unwise, to be polite... Especially since we are into October with these polls, with the election less than a month away...
Romney broke through to relevance in popular culture with the debate... SNL destroying Obama's debate performance & MSNBC's coverage of it... Kids walking around talking about meme's with Big Bird and Romney... Even people like Jimmy Fallon, who has been a big fan of this president was making jokes dissing Obama for not showing up at the debate...
He is not only leading, but he likely just needs draws in the next two debates to win this thing... If he wins the next debate, it's likely Romney's election... Biden might even gift wrap it for him on Thursday...
Now, a month is a lot of time in politics... especially in the age of the 24 hr entertainment style news media where each major story has a life cycle of like 36 hrs... All it takes is some random media outlet to come up with "shock"ing story to turn a herd of sheeple in one direction or the other... So I wouldnt go counting any chickens...
But credit ought to be given where it's due... and with a month and 3 days to go in the campaign everyone said it was over and Romney was done for... and that Obama's lead was too big to overcome... and after 1 debate, that 5-10pt lead was erased and turned into what Pollster has a a .4% lead for Obama, and RCP has as a .7% lead for Romney... each counting pre-debate polls...
I saw someone suggest that most of the post-debate polls with Romney up are also pre-job report polls... which will have some validity to it, but we likely aren't going to see those until after the VP debate, and those will be post-debate and job reports, but pre-vp debate polls... and the game will continue like that all the way to election day....
Still, that just proves the point... Obama had it won, and now the election is very much up in the air, with the Obama camp still reacting in panic mode...
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