• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Republicans don't deserve House majority if they push lies -Kinzinger

MauiMan

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 23, 2019
Messages
4,405
Reaction score
2,855
Location
Seattle WA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian - Left

Republicans don't deserve House majority if they push lies -Kinzinger

A U.S. House of Representatives Republican said his party does not deserve to win majorities in congressional elections next year if it pushes lies and conspiracy theories, saying that it "desperately needs to tell the truth."
www.reuters.com

A U.S. House of Representatives Republican said his party does not deserve to win majorities in congressional elections next year if it pushes lies and conspiracy theories, saying that it "desperately needs to tell the truth."

———————————

Will Republicans ever crawl out of their rabbit hole?
 
Lies, no lies, whatever. Who controls the house after Nov 2022 will be determine on how the voters view the Biden administration and the Democratic controlled congress. Which after the bad month of August for Biden and the Democrats, is a real possibility. Most folks won't pay any attention to what the GOP is saying. They're not in power, the attention will be on the party in power, their agenda, whether or not they take heed on what America wants and wishes and not just the Democratic Party's base. The party in power gets most of the media's attention, they're the one's that control government, the agenda, what gets passed and what doesn't. But foremost in all of this, it all depends on whether or not Democrats make independents mad. Make independents angry at them, you get wave elections like in 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018. But no wave election is needed for 2022, the GOP need but a net gain of 5 seats.

Here's what happened in the bad month of August for Biden and company.

Biden’s overall job approval/disapproval numbers:
1 Aug 51.3% approval, 45.9% disapproval/31 Aug 46.3% approval, 48.6% disapproval

Generic congressional vote
1 Aug Democrats 48% Republican 41% D plus 7/31 Aug Democrats 46% Republicans 44% D plus 2.

Direction of the Country, right track/wrong track

1 Aug right track 40%, wrong track 53%/31 Aug right track 30%, wrong track 61%

Immigration 1 Aug 42% approve, 54% disapprove/31 Aug 34% approve, 57% disapprove

COVID 1 Aug 62% approve, 38% disapprove/31 Aug 53% approve, 43% disapprove

Economy 1 Aug 55% approve, 45% disapprove/31 Aug 46% approve, 49% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

What this portents for Nov 2022, probably nothing at all. Plenty of time to rebound which is very possible. Nothing to worry about yet. But it may be time to start paying attention to the wants and wishes of independents and not so much that of the Democratic base. After all independents make up 40% of the electorate today, up from 30% in 2006. But both parties ignore them. So we'll see. Lies, no lies by the GOP, it won't make a difference. 2022 will be decided on what the Democrats who have total control do or don't do and whether they make independents happy or angry. Time will tell.
 
The Dems are pretty impervious in next year's elections so far.

The two major consequences have been the destruction of Biden retaining the office in 2024 or Trump being re-elected.
 

People need to stop using general approval numbers as a metric to see how elections goes.

Fact is there are a higher amount of lean Democrats than lean republicans so general polls are skewed.

Another fact is redistricting and how the constitution is set up, the advantages of representatives in Congress always lean to the minority.
 

Wait a minute!

Is this guy claiming that there are liars currently working as politicians in American politics?

This seems like an astonishing charge to level against a group of folks who comprise our major political parties who are all undeniably, 100%, liars and thieves.

Who does this guy think he is?
 
Little Adam is looking for some more attention from CNN. And he will get it.
He loves to bash president Trump and republicans. A RINO running wild.
 
What a dumb post. Even for you.
 
I am not so sure perotista..
On one hand you are right about not pissing off independents.
Certainly the democrats have to understand that. But frankly I think Biden is well aware of that and has held off a lot of the left leaning dems and their demands.
I think the Republicans may locally be pissing off a lot of independents and even moderate Republicans.
I see these republican controlled legislatures have gone hard right and have been heavy handed even in republican controlled states. The Texas legislature banning abortion.
The idaho legislature deciding to keep itself in session without closing..
Repeatedly putting forth unconstitutional bills.
Governors in states like Florida helping increase the pandemic or completely out of step with medical reality.
And the radicals in the republican party..the trumpet loyalists..will be the driving force in the primaries..ensuring that their house candidates are far right.
I don't think the fear of " the liberal agenda" is going to be such a force this go around.
I'd be curious if you gave polling on republican state legislatures as this is where they usually draw their House candidates from.
 
Why is there even a thread, or article for that matter, on this clown? Who cares what this moron thinks? As RINO as it gets.
 
Jesus, when are the Dems going to take Kinzinger's hints and invite him to join their party?
 
It is funny how the arguments from the Republicans on here seems to be that 'Kinzinger doesn't kiss Trumps ass and perpetuate Trumos misinformation, therefore he is a RINO and not to be listened to.'

'Only people that kiss Trumps ass and perpetuate his misinformation are to be listened to'
 
DataPoint said:
Trump is a RINO. Adam is a traditional Republican.,
Click to expand...
Trump is a narcissist. All political positions are transactor to feed his ego and pocketbook
 
I seen it done twice, peeving off independents in 1994 and 2010 when the Democrats had full control of government which resulted in 54 and 63 seat losses in the house. I don't see anything close like that happening in 2022. But not even being close would be enough to wrestle control of the House away from the Democrats. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats. Keep in mind independents aren't political junkies like us on this site. They don't pay much attention to politics or the day to day grind of the goings on in Washington if any until close to an election.

From what I seen, independents are more concerned about the compromise, bipartisan infrastructure bill passing than the 3.5 trillion budget which they care little about. After all, independents want a working government where the two major parties work together and compromise to get things done in Washington. Having full control of government, the house, senate and presidency may be a good news, bad news thing. Full control makes the Democrats responsible for everything, the GOP basically for nothing. I idea of putting the 3.5 trillion budget ahead of the infrastructure bill, of playing to the Democratic base instead of America as a whole could have dire repercussions if the infrastructure bill doesn't pass. Or is the House make changes to the senate versions where it will fail a re-vote in the senate on the changes made.

Today, I'd say the senate is safe. That the Democrats probably will pick up 1-3 seats. But the house, until redistricting occurs, there's no way to tell which seats are in jeopardy of switching. Only once since 1935 has the party that held the presidency didn't lose seats in their first midterm. That year was 2002 when the GOP gained 8 seats. I would bet the farm, if it weren't for 9-11 I which united the country behind G.W. Bush and the GOP, the Republicans would have lost seats.

Once redistricting is completed, I'll have a lot more to say about the house. Biden is probably the right president to limit the loses. But so too many thought of Obama in 2010. Obama ignored America as a whole for what the Democratic controlled congress were pushing and lost 63 seats. Bill Clinton did the same, went with what the Democratic controlled congress were pushing instead of what America as a whole wanted and wished for, he lost 54 seats. That election ended 40 straight years of Democratic controlled House.

I don't see anything like that happening next year, not even close as I said. But a loss of 10-15 is likely. But that is just a shot in the dark, a SWAG without redistricting being completed.
 
I think it's possible that the independents will be pissed off at their local gop. And that's where you get your house candidates from.
DeSantis in Florida has pissed off a lot of independents in Florida.
While hardly hurting his republican base.
Now are independents going to be more likely to vote for a house member that comes out of that Florida republican base..
Or less. I think less.
 
I think it's too early to tell. I was looking at the Florida senate race polls for August, no September polls available. Rubio averages a 6.5 point lead over Demmings with Rubio winning the independent vote. But in the same polls, they're showing D Charlie Crist leading DeSantis by 12 points with Crist winning independents. Too early to tell about the house. But that in itself shows how finicky independents can be.

It's like the 2020 election, only 41% of independents voted for Trump, but 48% voted for GOP house candidates, 51% for Republican senate candidate and 52% for Republican governor candidates. That a whole lot of ticket splitting. As for the House, the only thing we have to go on is the generic congressional ballot. But that is nationally and not district by district which to me make it untrustworthy. Right now more democrats are retiring from the house than republicans which leaves those seats open. Open seats is much easier to switch than beating an incumbent.

In the senate the GOP has 4 retirements to the Democrats none. Toomey in PA, Burr in NC which makes them good switchable targets for the Democrats. Also Portman in OH and Blunt in MO are also retiring. But both seats look safe GOP at this time.

Another think to consider is independents approval of Biden has dropped from 53% in June, down to 49% at the end of July, down to 43% at the end of August. But we have no way of knowing what it will be come Nov 2022. August was a bad month for Biden and the Democratic controlled congress. But there's plenty of time to rebound.

Another important factor is that Trump won't be on the 2022 ballot. Trump won independents in 2016 46-42 over Hillary Clinton with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates. Without Hillary on the 2018 ballot, independents switched to voting for Democratic congressional candidates 54-42 over Republican congressional candidates. Something akin to that could happen in 2022. No Hillary to save the GOP in 2018, no Trump to save the Democrats in 2022.

I'm not saying that will happen. But until redistricting is completed, everything is nothing more than pure speculation. No hard numbers to go by. I'll leave you with this, congressional democrats are viewed 26% favorable, 61% unfavorable by independents, Congressional Republicans 27% favorable, 59% unfavorable. but independents don't like either major party or their leaders, if they did, they wouldn't be independents, they'd belong to one or the other party. I once again wouldn't read too much into that even after I posted it. But I would remind that it is the democrats that are in full control and it's the democrats that will get the credit or blame for what goes right or wrong. Republicans are just sitting on the sidelines.
 
Interesting.
I think that trump will be on the ballot in 2022. I think it's going to be the trumper loyalists that may have to answer to independents in areas where they have sway. And while moderate Republicans may not vote for a Democrat..they may stay home.
I think you would have to see how many house republican seats up for reelection are trump loyalists or old guard.
If the seats are old guard republican..they likely will hold and the dems face losing seats to open races.
If the seats are trumpers? I think all bets are off as I think there is continued backlash against trumpers particularly with their local handling of the pandemic.

I live in one of the reddest states in the us.
In one of the most red districts in the state. And people were so fed up with the in incompetence of our gop house member that we voted in a Democrat. ( one term).
 
Cool. Republicans calling out bs from their own side. Refreshing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…