RCP Has Pennsylvania Nearly Tied, Biden Up 1 Point

[ReubenSherr]

I don't know who will win this election tonight, it will be exciting.

But note that RCP now has Pennsylvania nearly tied, showing Biden with a lead of +1.2. Compared to Clinton's final lead of +2.1 four years ago in PA.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

Here is the RCP update as of this morning:
Florida Biden +0.9
Pennsylvania Biden +1.2
Wisconsin Biden +6.7
North Carolina Trump +0.2
Michigan Biden +4.2
Ohio Trump +1.4
Minnesota Biden +4.3
Iowa Trump +2.0
Arizona Biden +0.9
Nevada Biden +2.2
Texas Trump +1.2
Georgia Trump +1.0

 

[Ikari]

Well the election is today, so we'll start to see how all this is panning out.

 

[Slavister]

But note that RCP now has Pennsylvania nearly tied, showing Biden with a lead of +1.2. Compared to Clinton's final lead of +2.1 four years ago in PA.

As we discussed in the other thread, this is based in large degree on more Trump pollsters this year and at least Susquehanna shows ~4% move towards Biden vs Clinton but instead it negatively appears in the RCP average.

If you look at Monmouth for example, which just got squeezed out from 2020 RCP average due to an extra Trump poll but was present in 2016 average, it was +4% for Clinton in 2016 and it's now +7% for Biden.

538 shows 89% chance of Biden winning this election nationwide vs 71% chance for Clinton in 2016, while in PA specifically, it's tighter 77% in 2016 vs 84% in 2020 suggesting that PA Biden loss would not be AS devastating as it would be in 2016.

With pollsters having adjusted from 2016, it's looking good for Biden. Fingers crossed.

 

[MTAtech]

I don't know who will win this election tonight, it will be exciting.

But note that RCP now has Pennsylvania nearly tied, showing Biden with a lead of +1.2. Compared to Clinton's final lead of +2.1 four years ago in PA.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

Here is the RCP update as of this morning:
Florida Biden +0.9
Pennsylvania Biden +1.2
Wisconsin Biden +6.7
North Carolina Trump +0.2
Michigan Biden +4.2
Ohio Trump +1.4
Minnesota Biden +4.3
Iowa Trump +2.0
Arizona Biden +0.9
Nevada Biden +2.2
Texas Trump +1.2
Georgia Trump +1.0

If the RCP averages are correct Biden will win.

 

[George50]

I don't know who will win this election tonight, it will be exciting.

But note that RCP now has Pennsylvania nearly tied, showing Biden with a lead of +1.2. Compared to Clinton's final lead of +2.1 four years ago in PA.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

Here is the RCP update as of this morning:
Florida Biden +0.9
Pennsylvania Biden +1.2
Wisconsin Biden +6.7
North Carolina Trump +0.2
Michigan Biden +4.2
Ohio Trump +1.4
Minnesota Biden +4.3
Iowa Trump +2.0
Arizona Biden +0.9
Nevada Biden +2.2
Texas Trump +1.2
Georgia Trump +1.0

Interesting how RCP selected the PA polls to include. They cut off the big name pollsters who show Biden with a bigger lead and included those who lean towards Trump. It looks like it’s ranked somehow by date but the Trump leaners just started their survey a day or two later and sometimes ended on the same date as those rejected.

Could the Trump leaners be adjusting their final sample dates to make sure they get included in the RCP average before the cutoff point.

538 has Biden with an 84% chance of winning PA with a 4.7% margin. We’ll see what happens. 538 doesn’t have a hard cutoff like RCP but instead weights the more recent polls higher.

Overall 538 closed their forecast showing Biden with an 89% chance of winning the EC.

Neither 538 nor RCP factor in legal shenanigans or the postal service ballot slowdowns so those could be factors in PA and other states as well.

 

[Greenbeard]

Interesting how RCP selected the PA polls to include. They cut off the big name pollsters who show Biden with a bigger lead and included those who lean towards Trump. It looks like it’s ranked somehow by date but the Trump leaners just started their survey a day or two later and sometimes ended on the same date as those rejected.