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Then take it up with Fordham
You debate like a whack-a-mole mole. Destroy your position on something and you pop up somewhere else spouting the same debunked nonsense.
I've already debunked your fordham U. study at least once before. CNN/OCR were more accurate than both Rasmussen and pew ... And pew was way off with their 49/42 prediction; there were several others closer thean pew.
WH2008: General
I think it's pretty unreasonable to judge an entire polling firm based on one single poll. Yes, I care about who had the most accurate final poll of the presidential race, but in order to see who was the most accurate you need to include alot of polls, average them all out and see who was most accurate, and see if any polling firms were way outside the norm the entire time and then moved their conclusions more towards the center at the very end so that they could appear unbiased. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com is one of the best statisticians out there and his models that are comprised of all the national and some local polls are incredibly accurate. His thorough review of Rasmussen in the 2010 elections is a must read in my opinion. He doesn't just come out and say that they purposefully skew the polls towards republicans. He tells you how they conduct their polls and why their methods lead to inconsistent and biased polling.
Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com
They spell it out in plain numbers, so you can't really argue that he isn't giving Rasmussen a fair shake. Numbers are numbers.
Then take it up with Fordham
Why should I do that? They are not the ones posting their study on this forum after it's been debunked, you are. I'd appreciate it you'd stop posting debunked garbage.
FiveThirtyEight is by far the best site to go with on polling.from the research I've done, Rasmussen appears to be the most accurate, and is the only one i really bother keeping an eye on anymore.
does anyone dispute this or think some other service is more accurate/reliable?
The only poll that matters are the ones on November 6
He says without any proof what so ever, lol.
The polls we are getting now matter. Are they completely accurate and can be trusted? Nope. Do they matter in the sense that it completely can change the way that a presidential campaign is run? Absolutely. Your assertion is wrong.
What I do know, is that when you take all of these polls and compose an aggregate of them all, you get much better and more accurate results, not just for the final presidential poll, but for all congressional and presidential polls. Therefor, that is what I go to when I am curious about the current trends in polling. This is something that generally every sensible person agrees on regardless of political bend. The sensible conservatives and liberals will discuss the trends of all of the polls and what we can garner from that information, the more blind or the more hucksterish of those conservatives or liberals will point out only the latest poll that happens to agree with their political views.
If you want to argue that Rasumussen is the most accurate you can go for it, but you have a lot of work ahead of you as the link I posted to gives you all the numbers in a very easy to understand format. This is not me saying "oh, well they just hate Obama" this is a respected person, Nate Silver, giving you the numbers and saying "they used these methods which are unreliable because x,y, & z.
The only poll that matters are the ones on November 6 and want to bet that all those showing big Obama leaders will show a much closer race by election day?
No, debunked by pollingreport.com, an unbiased site which posted the poll numbers for the 2008 election and prove the Fordham U. study was wrong.Debunked by a leftwing ideologue? LOL, your defense of polls favorable to Obama and total ignorance of the Obama results are quite telling. I know how much that will help you in your personal life in the future
No, debunked by pollingreport.com, an unbiased site which posted the poll numbers for the 2008 election and prove the Fordham U. study was wrong.
Does this mran you're going to continue posting the results of Fordham's debunked study even though you've been shown repeatedly that they're wrong? Oops, I almost forgot ... results don't matter to you.
Keep in mind, it's only your integrity on the line if you choose to continue posting debunked garbage[./COLOR]
Umm, I'm not the only one here watching you lie by posting a debunked srudy you've already been shown was debunked. I guess you don't care that everyone posting here gets to see how accurate I am when I point out so often how much you lie.Do you really think I care what you think about my posts? Anyone that supports Obama doesn't have much credibility anyway.
So then why are other polls more favorable to Obama more accurate than Rasmussen in the liberal world?
FiveThirtyEight is by far the best site to go with on polling.
Nate takes an information based approach. Polls may be just be snapshots in time, but if you're smart and good at pretty sophisticated math, you can merge all of the polling data into a panorama.
His algorithms are well justified mathematically, though it may be a little tough to follow if you don't have a decent working knowledge of statistics and stochastics.
Also, just because Rasmussen leans right doesn't make it a bad poll and it doesn't make Rasmussen biased. As long as their methodology remains consistent, then their polling tells you a lot about the race.
For example, Nate's model actually cut Obama's chances of winning the election because of several favourable OH polls because the posters tend to overestimate Obama's performance relative to the rest of the polling firms and they weren't as favourable as they *should* have been.
| ACTUAL | 51 | 48 |
| Pew Research | 50 | 47 |
| ABC/WPost | 50 | 47 |
| IBD/TIPP | 50 | 49 |
| NBC/WSJ | 48 | 47 |
| CBS/NYT | 48 | 47 |
| CNN/ORC | 49 | 49 |
| SurveyUSA | 48 | 48 |
| Politico/GWU | 47 | 47 |
| Fox | 46 | 46 |
| Gallup | 49 | 50 |
| Rasmussen | 48 | 49 |
So how did the pollsters finally do?
ACTUAL 51 48 Pew Research 50 47 ABC/WPost 50 47 IBD/TIPP 50 49 NBC/WSJ 48 47 CBS/NYT 48 47 CNN/ORC 49 49 SurveyUSA 48 48 Politico/GWU 47 47 Fox 46 46 Gallup 49 50 Rasmussen 48 49
Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen have anything to fear. Next election, whomever they lean for will be shoving them in the other sides' face.Darn! It looks Gallup has a bit of a 'right' bias along with the previously known bias of Rasmussen. Those kind of results ain't gonna do much for the Gallup crowd in the future, now are they?
Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen have anything to fear. Next election, whomever they lean for will be shoving them in the other sides' face.
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