Q1 GDP revised down to -0.5% in third estimate; prices revised up

[Airyaman]

Yowie. Seems Q1 was worse in many ways than originally estimated.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4462672-q1-gdp-revised-down-to--05-in-third-estimate-prices-revised-up

The Golden Age is not looking all that golden.

 

[Integrityrespec]

Looking pretty golden from where I sit. How do we know this "revised" assesment is accurate? Apparently it's changing daily nad the left likes to lie so I'm skeptical od anything that comes from some sources.

 

[Ishm]

Ask yourself what actions have the Trump administration taken that will actually promote short term growth? All the actions I can think off come with the promise of future (not short term) wonders that Trump claims will be awesome, and most serious economists have extreme doubts about. This is why Trump is so desperate to see the Fed drop interest rates. The actions that Trump is taking are mostly economically destructive, so he needs the Fed to drop interest rates to try and stimulate more consumer borrowing and spending (as if we really need more consumer borrowing). Trump isn't worried about inflation because that is a future problem that he will invent excuses for once it occurs. Fortunately for us all, that isn't the congressional mandate that the Fed operates under and must comply with.

 

[Loulit01]

Oy.

 

[Callen]

Read an interesting article the other day, I believe it was Wall Street Journal but can't swear to it. The author's expectation is that 2Q GDP will come in with a healthy number because exports in the 2Q were higher than imports. Normally that would be a good thing but imports are way down because of tariffs not because of a strong export market. He said it actually a sign of a weakening economy not a strong economy. However, you can be sure if it's a good number Trumpers will insist it's a sign of a booming economy even as spending shrinks and unemployment starts to grow.

 

[lynnwinslow]

Looking pretty golden from where I sit.

Personal anecdotes are not a compelling debate response.

How do we know this "revised" assesment is accurate? Apparently it's changing daily nad the left likes to lie so I'm skeptical od anything that comes from some sources.

Daddy's government reported the numbers.

An official website of the United States government

Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

www.bea.gov

 

[dmpi]

What happened in the past is of lesser importance. These numbers were perturb by weird things happening with import/exports. These numbers will stabilize and correct in the next few quarters which will provide us better visibility of what's really going on. My thinking is these number along with low inflation will clearly drive the Fed to finally lower their rates.

 

[Blue Dog]

Republican voters could care less. As long as a Democrat is not in the WH, the country could self immolate…..

 

[TangoNoCash]

It’s a new age of American prosperity. Promises made. Promises kept.

 

[Michael Cole]

Looking pretty golden from where I sit.

Which is where?

Some areas are doing better than others. Things have slowed here but not stopped. I guess that's better than other places.

How do we know this "revised" assesment is accurate? Apparently it's changing daily nad the left likes to lie so I'm skeptical od anything that comes from some sources.

Everybody's lying. It's a worldwide conspiracy against Trump.

 

[Jay59]

Q1 GDP revised down to -0.5% in third estimate; prices revised up

You said Biden didn't leave Trump a recession.

Yowie. Seems Q1 was worse in many ways than originally estimated.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4462672-q1-gdp-revised-down-to--05-in-third-estimate-prices-revised-up

View attachment 67576791

View attachment 67576792

The Golden Age is not looking all that golden.

It may not be a recession--2nd quarter isn't in yet--but Biden left a mess.

 

[Airyaman]

You said Biden didn't leave Trump a recession.


It may not be a recession--2nd quarter isn't in yet--but Biden left a mess.

Lol, your gaslighting isn't even worth the effort.

 

[Jay59]

Lol, your gaslighting isn't even worth the effort.

Do you know what gaslighting means?

In this context, it's a compliment.

Gaslight (1944) ⭐ 7.8 | Crime, Drama, Mystery

1h 54m | Approved

www.imdb.com

 

[Airyaman]

Do you know what gaslighting means?

In this context, it's a compliment.

Gaslight (1944) ⭐ 7.8 | Crime, Drama, Mystery

1h 54m | Approved

www.imdb.com

Basically gaslighting is feeding false information on something to try to change one's perception of reality.

Biden didn't cause any of this bullshit, it's 100% on Trump.

Trump says Biden caused the economic downturn. That’s malarkey | Steven Greenhouse

The US president is blaming ‘Biden’s economy’. In fact, there is one key cause of the poor showing – and it’s not his predecessor

www.theguardian.com

 

[Jay59]

Basically gaslighting is feeding false information on something to try to change one's perception of reality.

Close but not exactly.

Biden didn't cause any of this bullshit, it's 100% on Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2025/may/05/trump-biden-economy

View attachment 67576808

Biden turned over an economy in distress.

Q1 is entirely on him. Trump has not had time to do anything yet.

 

[Airyaman]

Close but not exactly.


Biden turned over an economy in distress.

Q1 is entirely on him. Trump has not had time to do anything yet.

Yeah, there's a reason you aren't backing your assertion with support from actual economists: because you're wrong.

 

[Jay59]

Yeah, there's a reason you aren't backing your assertion with support from actual economists: because you're wrong.

The reason is that quarter two isn't over yet.

You are saying that Q1 is bad, and I agree.

 

[Airyaman]

The reason is that quarter two isn't over yet.

You are saying that Q1 is bad, and I agree.

But you blame Q1 on Biden, and very few economists agree. Almost all put the blame on Trump's chaotic policies.

 

[Jay59]

But you blame Q1 on Biden, and very few economists agree. Almost all put the blame on Trump's chaotic policies.

Economists typically count the whole first year to the old administration.

I'm just claiming that Biden left a mess. All of your posts agree.

 

[upsideguy]

Economists typically count the whole first year to the old administration.

I'm just claiming that Biden left a mess. All of your posts agree.

TYPICALLY, what you say is true. Typically, however, new president's do not make drastic moves on the economic levers in the first weeks in office. Trump did. Most presidents move the levers gradually; Trump did not.

The cause of the economic slowdown is substantially tied to Trump capricious and drastic implementation of tariffs, then reversing course, then reversing again. This created uncertainty in American business which let to an immediate constriction of investment along with some furloughs. As a result, consumer confidence suddenly waned. This all led to precipitous drop in the stock market which caused $5 trillion dollars of wealth to disappear, essentially creating a reverse stimulus. There was also significant furloughs in government, which is 20% of GDP.

US economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025 amid tariff uncertainty

The Commerce Department released its third estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter and found the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.5%.

www.foxbusiness.com

US economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than earlier estimates had revealed

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s import taxes at least temporarily disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in a a downgrade from its previous estimate.

apnews.com

US Tariffs: What’s the Impact? | J.P. Morgan Global Research

The situation surrounding U.S. tariffs is constantly evolving. Read the latest analysis of their economic impact from J.P. Morgan Global Research.

www.jpmorgan.com

How Have Trump's Tariffs Shaped the US Economy? - U.S. Constitution.net

Tariffs were supposed to shift the balance—reshape trade, bring production home, and change the way companies invest in the U.S. economy. Since then, the results have been mixed, depending on who you ask and what numbers you trust. Some projects moved forward. Others quietly stalled. So what’s...

www.usconstitution.net

Biden did not leave an economic mess. He left an economy that economists at the British publication, The Economist, dubbed the "envy of the world".....

The envy of the world | Oct 19th 2024 | The Economist

The envy of the world. Special reports from The Economist. You've seen the news, now discover the story.

www.economist.com

Perhaps you would like to tell us all what specific things Biden did in the last quarter of 2024 to screw up that up. Don't bother, we all know you are not capable of such.

You know that the only radical changes to the economy came from Trump in February and March. Trump just managed to immediately screw it up with his impulsive moves.

While is pretty typical for a new president to not have much of an impact on the economy for about the first six months of his term, Trump found a way to make an impact. Elections have consequences. This consequence is particularly bad.

 

[Airyaman]

Economists typically count the whole first year to the old administration.

I'm just claiming that Biden left a mess. All of your posts agree.

No they don't.