PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 December 2019
Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan.
Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia Wyoming.
The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee.
Arizona McSally R – McSally’s opponent is unknown. It could be former Astronaut Mark Kelly. If so, I would go with Kelly. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48
Alabama Jones D – There are 9 Republicans so far who have entered the GOP primary to challenge Jones. Jeff Sessions is the front runner. Sessions will regain his old seat. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47
Colorado Gardner R – So far 8 Democrats have declared their candidacy to challenge Gardner. The best know is former Governor John Hickenlooper. If it is Hickenlooper, he’ll win in a landslide. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48
Georgia Perdue R – 8 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. Perdue has the advantage being the incumbent. That is the sole reason I’m keeping this seat as a Republican hold. R 52 D 48
Georgia Special Open R – Isakson is leaving the senate at the end of the year. Governor Kemp will appoint his replacement sometime in January. Until that happens along with knowing who the Democrats will nominate, I’m leaving this seat as a Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.
Iowa Ernst R – There are 4 declared Democrats preparing to challenge Ernst. None are big names. Ernst should keep her seat. Republican hold. R 52 D 48
Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. There are 3 declared Democrats and 6 declared Republicans so far vying for this open seat. As red as Kansas is, the Republicans should hold this seat. R 52 D 48
Kentucky McConnell R – 6 democrats have declared to challenge McConnell. Whichever one wins the Democratic primary will give McConnell a run for his life. Abet, falling short. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Maine Collins R – 5 democrats have declared so far to challenge Collins, 4 more will probably do so. There have been no Republican challenges to Collins. She can prepare for the general while the Democrats are fighting it out among themselves. This race looks very, very close. Collins being the incumbent, I’m sticking with her. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Michigan Peters D – Only two GOP challengers have declared to challenge Peters. Both look like a long shot. Democratic hold 52 R 48 D
Mississippi Hyde-Smith R – This one looks like a rematch from 2018, Hyde-Smith vs. Mike Espy. Hyde-Smith wins. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
North Carolina Tillis R – Tillis is being challenged by Sandy Smith and Garland Tucker. No shot at beating Tillis. 5 Democrats have declared their challenge to Tillis. Tillis will lose in a close race to either Cal Cunningham or Erica Smith in a close one. Democratic gain 51R 49 D
Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 4 Republicans have already declared their intentions to seek Alexander’s seat, 3 more will probably join them. 3 Democrats have announced, with 5 more waiting in the wings. Until things get a bit less confusing in Tennessee, I’m keeping this as a Republican hold. R 51 D 49
This is my first forecast. As time goes by, I expect to drop Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi and Tennessee from my watch list as they become non-competitive. I have them here now because strange things have been happening. No one knows how Trump’s impeachment will affect these senate races. All I can say is stay tuned for my monthly updates on these senate races. Bottom line for this month, the Democrats will have a net gain of 2 when they need at least 3 if not 4 depending on who wins the White House.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent seats. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats have 33 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties to the Republicans 18. The Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, the Democrats win MI-3, the independent seat with result of the new House having 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans.
Presidency
Until we know who the nominee will be, I’ll use the Democratic generic presidential candidate to do my figuring. Doing so may throw off the actual percentages by a couple of points one way or the other. Popular vote, Generic Democratic candidate 50.4% Trump 47.4%. Electoral College, there are 46 states that I feel confident in predicting, in those states it is Generic Democrat 259, Trump 204. Four states in my book are pure tossups with 75 electoral votes. Pennsylvania is one of them, I don’t think Trump can win Pennsylvania for a second time. Place Pennsylvania to the generic Democratic which gives him 279, enough to win without the other three. They are Arizona, Florida, North Carolina. In all three Trump’s approval rating is below water. For this month I’ll give all three to the generic Democrat. Making the final count generic Democrat 334, Trump 204. Keep in mind once the Democrats nominate a candidate, things can change drastically, which I’m sure they will. We also don’t know how impeachment will affect these numbers. But as of 1 December 2019, you have my first forecast.
History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204
Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan.
Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia Wyoming.
The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee.
Arizona McSally R – McSally’s opponent is unknown. It could be former Astronaut Mark Kelly. If so, I would go with Kelly. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48
Alabama Jones D – There are 9 Republicans so far who have entered the GOP primary to challenge Jones. Jeff Sessions is the front runner. Sessions will regain his old seat. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47
Colorado Gardner R – So far 8 Democrats have declared their candidacy to challenge Gardner. The best know is former Governor John Hickenlooper. If it is Hickenlooper, he’ll win in a landslide. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48
Georgia Perdue R – 8 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. Perdue has the advantage being the incumbent. That is the sole reason I’m keeping this seat as a Republican hold. R 52 D 48
Georgia Special Open R – Isakson is leaving the senate at the end of the year. Governor Kemp will appoint his replacement sometime in January. Until that happens along with knowing who the Democrats will nominate, I’m leaving this seat as a Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.
Iowa Ernst R – There are 4 declared Democrats preparing to challenge Ernst. None are big names. Ernst should keep her seat. Republican hold. R 52 D 48
Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. There are 3 declared Democrats and 6 declared Republicans so far vying for this open seat. As red as Kansas is, the Republicans should hold this seat. R 52 D 48
Kentucky McConnell R – 6 democrats have declared to challenge McConnell. Whichever one wins the Democratic primary will give McConnell a run for his life. Abet, falling short. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Maine Collins R – 5 democrats have declared so far to challenge Collins, 4 more will probably do so. There have been no Republican challenges to Collins. She can prepare for the general while the Democrats are fighting it out among themselves. This race looks very, very close. Collins being the incumbent, I’m sticking with her. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Michigan Peters D – Only two GOP challengers have declared to challenge Peters. Both look like a long shot. Democratic hold 52 R 48 D
Mississippi Hyde-Smith R – This one looks like a rematch from 2018, Hyde-Smith vs. Mike Espy. Hyde-Smith wins. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
North Carolina Tillis R – Tillis is being challenged by Sandy Smith and Garland Tucker. No shot at beating Tillis. 5 Democrats have declared their challenge to Tillis. Tillis will lose in a close race to either Cal Cunningham or Erica Smith in a close one. Democratic gain 51R 49 D
Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 4 Republicans have already declared their intentions to seek Alexander’s seat, 3 more will probably join them. 3 Democrats have announced, with 5 more waiting in the wings. Until things get a bit less confusing in Tennessee, I’m keeping this as a Republican hold. R 51 D 49
This is my first forecast. As time goes by, I expect to drop Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi and Tennessee from my watch list as they become non-competitive. I have them here now because strange things have been happening. No one knows how Trump’s impeachment will affect these senate races. All I can say is stay tuned for my monthly updates on these senate races. Bottom line for this month, the Democrats will have a net gain of 2 when they need at least 3 if not 4 depending on who wins the White House.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent seats. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats have 33 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties to the Republicans 18. The Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, the Democrats win MI-3, the independent seat with result of the new House having 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans.
Presidency
Until we know who the nominee will be, I’ll use the Democratic generic presidential candidate to do my figuring. Doing so may throw off the actual percentages by a couple of points one way or the other. Popular vote, Generic Democratic candidate 50.4% Trump 47.4%. Electoral College, there are 46 states that I feel confident in predicting, in those states it is Generic Democrat 259, Trump 204. Four states in my book are pure tossups with 75 electoral votes. Pennsylvania is one of them, I don’t think Trump can win Pennsylvania for a second time. Place Pennsylvania to the generic Democratic which gives him 279, enough to win without the other three. They are Arizona, Florida, North Carolina. In all three Trump’s approval rating is below water. For this month I’ll give all three to the generic Democrat. Making the final count generic Democrat 334, Trump 204. Keep in mind once the Democrats nominate a candidate, things can change drastically, which I’m sure they will. We also don’t know how impeachment will affect these numbers. But as of 1 December 2019, you have my first forecast.
History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204