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The alarmist canard about more & worse hurricanes is (once again) refuted.
Fair enough. Number of landfall events show no major trend.
What else could be impacted? What fuels hurricanes? Warm water you say? Well, we DO KNOW that the ocean is warming, so do we have to throw out "conservation of energy" as a concept?
Or, wait...let's look at the intensity of the hurricanes which ALSO tracks with water temperature!
And here we have it!
Evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger | PNAS
or this one:
How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous >> Yale Climate Connections
'Are hurricanes getting stronger?
The authors of that same 2013 study found a substantial regional and global increase in the proportion of the strongest hurricanes – category 4 and 5 storms. The authors attribute that increase to global heating of the climate: “We conclude that since 1975 there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase in the proportion of Cat 4-5 hurricanes of 25-30 percent per °C of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming.”'
This is fun!
Fair enough. Number of landfall events show no major trend.
What else could be impacted? What fuels hurricanes? Warm water you say? Well, we DO KNOW that the ocean is warming, so do we have to throw out "conservation of energy" as a concept?
Or, wait...let's look at the intensity of the hurricanes which ALSO tracks with water temperature!
And here we have it!
Evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger | PNAS
or this one:
How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous >> Yale Climate Connections
'Are hurricanes getting stronger?
The authors of that same 2013 study found a substantial regional and global increase in the proportion of the strongest hurricanes – category 4 and 5 storms. The authors attribute that increase to global heating of the climate: “We conclude that since 1975 there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase in the proportion of Cat 4-5 hurricanes of 25-30 percent per °C of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming.”'
This is fun!
Fair enough. Number of landfall events show no major trend.
What else could be impacted? What fuels hurricanes? Warm water you say? Well, we DO KNOW that the ocean is warming, so do we have to throw out "conservation of energy" as a concept?
Or, wait...let's look at the intensity of the hurricanes which ALSO tracks with water temperature!
And here we have it!
Evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger | PNAS
or this one:
How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous >> Yale Climate Connections
'Are hurricanes getting stronger?
The authors of that same 2013 study found a substantial regional and global increase in the proportion of the strongest hurricanes – category 4 and 5 storms. The authors attribute that increase to global heating of the climate: “We conclude that since 1975 there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase in the proportion of Cat 4-5 hurricanes of 25-30 percent per °C of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming.”'
This is fun!
Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. |
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[h=3]Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception[/h][FONT="][URL="https://climaterealism.com/category/extreme-weather/hurricanes/"]Hurricanes[/URL] May 21, 20208
[FONT="]The media are breathlessly touting a cheap new “study” falsely asserting climate change is causing an increase in strong hurricanes. In reality, the study relies on deception, unethical data manipulation, and aggressive misrepresentation of...[/FONT][/COLOR]
[FONT=Roboto][URL="https://climaterealism.com/2020/05/highly-touted-alarmist-hurricane-study-sets-new-low-for-misleading-deception/"]Read more[/URL][/FONT]
[/FONT]
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue
climatlas.com › tropical
by SS File - Related articles
... that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. ... Dr. Ryan N. Maue. Follow @RyanMaue. Updated: Aug 15, 2020 15:01 ...
Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.
Wow! An "ad hominem" tour de force!!! Excellent. I can see why this is probably attractive. It starts off with a rhetorical fallacy of focusing on the writers rather than the content.
Let's look at the SECOND PARAGRAPH of this screed!
"The study, published by government-employed and government-funded researchers whose jobs and income depend on perpetuation of the alarmist Climate Delusion,"
So let's talk about the CONTENT.
Now, I am willing to accept the critique that the time-frame being investigated may be too short to provide meaningful data. That's a fair enough "hit", but if you actually read the PNAS article you'd see they themselves even mention that! But they go on to say: "the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979–2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified."
Also your rhetorically flawed denialist blog view of the article states that frequency has not changed...however the article it is critiquing appears to be mostly aimed at intensity not frequency!
(Forgive me, I don't have the full PNAS article since it's behind a paywall, so maybe you can look at your copy and point out the discussion of frequency. Because literally EVERYTHING I'm seeing from the PNAS website focuses on INTENSITY (which is different).
How does one quote philosophers so much but then be drawn to such fallacious "reasoning"?
Please read:
Frequency =/= Intensity.
Essentially, overall hurricane numbers declined while major storms stayed the same. Thus, a percentage increase in strong storms.
Frequency is not the same as Intensity
How about this one? I've been living in florida for over thirty years, the storms are most assuredly getting worse and I'm not even a scientist.
In Floridiot alsoDon't you love it when they have these hour shows that talk about "Hurricane Awareness" True, some of it is fine but my soul sadly laughs when we hear (in Sarasota): "Pack up what you need and get out of town"
Ah..in case some of the people don't know: You can't travel very far east or west. What you can do is travel on I-75 or I-4 or I-95. Yeah, are we talking about those same highways that are parking lots in the morning and afternoon and God-forbid if there's an accident 15 miles down the road..you'll be lucky to get home in time to watch the 10 o'clock news. Plus the fact that most gas stations will be closed or out of fuel or have no power to even pump the fuel. Those "messages" on TV kind of forgot that this is not the olden days. Florida has over 20 million people now and instructing them to go someplace else (I'm afraid) is going to be the worst joke on the Floridian populace that has ever come down the pike. Especially with all the trailer parks here. If one lives toward the top of the state, fine. Down where I'm at? No thank you.
In Houston, we have one weather guy who keeps a level head, he says run from the water, shelter from the wind.I had a vacation in virginia the year of 2017 when we had that horrific hurricane, forget her name, it took me fourteen hours for a seven hour drive. I-95 was packed from the moment I got onto it up into south carolina. We were lucky if it was moving five miles an hour. I spend every other week in vero beach, the last storm went poof, nothing, a little wind a little rain.
Texas reported the most deaths from the hurricane, where 113 deaths were reported,
107 of which were associated with the evacuation of the Houston metropolitan area.
It does seem like in earlier storms the scale was based on maximum sustained winds, not gusts.[FONT=&][/FONT]
Hurricane Laura and the Wind Speed Dilemma
[FONT=&]But here is the issue. What were the maximum sustained winds that occurred last night as Laura made landfall? Looking at all available stations, the highest sustained wind was 98 mph at Lake Charles Airport.
Continue reading →
[/FONT]
Even with Laura, Louisiana Hurricanes Have Not Increased Since 1851
Again, this is based upon official NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) statistics.
NOAA said:Observed records of Atlantic hurricane activity show some correlation, on multi-year time-scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) — see for example Fig. 3 on this EPA Climate Indicators site. PDI is an aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity, combining frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes in a single index. Both Atlantic SSTs and PDI have risen sharply since the 1970s, and there is some evidence that PDI levels in recent years are higher than in the previous active Atlantic hurricane era in the 1950s and 60s.
Source: Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
[h=3]Data says NO Climate Change link in Louisiana Hurricanes[/h][FONT=Muli !important]EXTREME WEATHER AUGUST 26, 2020[/FONT]
Interesting, again, localized data and, frankly, confusing why warming of the ocean/gulf wouldn't result in changes in the storms. I tend to get hung up on the First Law of Thermodynamics, and it really stands in the way of me making a million dollars selling perpetual motion machines.
The important thing is that blogs are convinced it’s not an issue.
Hmmm, a data set that is local to an area on the globe.
I think the bigger question is: if the ocean is actually warming (we know it is, regardless of what we each think is the cause) why wouldn't the hurricanes/cyclones become stronger, more severe?
This is a matter of conservation of energy. Hurricanes and Cyclones are driven by water temperature in no small part, so if you put more energy into that why wouldn't hurricanes and cyclones be affected?
Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. |
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Interesting, again, localized data and, frankly, confusing why warming of the ocean/gulf wouldn't result in changes in the storms. I tend to get hung up on the First Law of Thermodynamics, and it really stands in the way of me making a million dollars selling perpetual motion machines.
The important thing is that blogs are convinced it’s not an issue.
Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. |
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