Nice Profit

[noonereal]

Using a 4-1 risk/reward ratio means that I am only willing to lose 1/4 of what I am looking to make. I could be wrong 4 times and if I am right once, I break even.

Every gamler since time began does the same damn thing. Do you really not know this. I eluded to this earlier in the thread.

I never bet at risky as you. I was never used 1/4 of my resources in one session.

 

[noonereal]

you have a 4-1 chance of making money versus losing it, it is not called gambling. It is taking advantage of the probabilities.

What all real gamblers do.

You seem to have this idea of gambling as grandma playing a slots mindlessly. (Nowhere near 50/50 btw) they are not.

One who gamblers at baccarat table for years or craps table all have systems, as i have told you.

There is nothing unique about your Long Winded System . In fact, feel free to use that name for the title of your book on gambling when you publish it.
.

 

[Luckyone]

Lol

Now you never said it.

Evidently, you are also full of s***. You use empty words to make a point, but can't actually back up any of them.

As of now, you have achieved getting on my list of BS artists that have nothing to say of value. You rant, you rave, you criticize but you cannot actually state anything other than pure generalities.

Go ahead and stay with your ideas and thoughts. I don't give a damn about them and much less care about having any other discussion with you.

Bye

 

[hooligan]

This thread doesn't belong in the political forums....

 

[Luckyone]

This thread doesn't belong in the political forums....

Then why are you commenting on it, instead of doing something about it?

 

[noonereal]

Evidently, you are also full of s***. You use empty words to make a point, but can't actually back up any of them.

As of now, you have achieved getting on my list of BS artists that have nothing to say of value. You rant, you rave, you criticize but you cannot actually state anything other than pure generalities.

Go ahead and stay with your ideas and thoughts. I don't give a damn about them and much less care about having any other discussion with you.

Bye

You seem upset. Lol

 

[Visbek]

Yes, they are and they were wrong. In fact, most everyone was wrong the past 2 years.

So... The experts who have gotten everything wrong for the past 2 years are suddenly right?

On the other side of the coin, no one knew what the Federal Reserve was going to do or when. For the first time (in 2 years), that outlook has a 95% certainty and as such, the lack of knowledge about the Fed is no longer a "lack of knowledge".

Yesterday was so long ago, wasn't it?

Sorry, but you've got it backwards. Everyone expected the Fed to do a small rate cut in July, but they didn't, which became tinder for a brief panic. No one knows right now if the Fed will do an emergency rate cut (as I assume you thought was "95% certain!!!" yesterday) or will wait until September. It's even possible they won't

Having said what you said, you do know that "garden variety no fee funds" work on making profits and therefore, they have to be right more often than not.

I made one slip-up here -- I should have typed "low fee" instead of "no fee" -- so you only get one

Anyway... Index funds are passive funds that are pegged to major indexes like the S&P 500, or a total stock index funds. There is no "getting right" or "getting wrong," because the holdings are simply based on the index.

And yet, it is history (since the market started trading) that uptrends and downtrends normally last 1 year and the exceptions have not generally gone more than 3-5 years....

Try again. Historically the S&P rises 11% per year. This is why most investors are best served buying and holding a low-fee index fund, rather than engaging in esoteric and/or risky trades involving margin debt, commissions, taxes, and other fees.

....this uptrend has now been going on for 15 years, with the exception of when Covid hit and that was 4 years ago. As such, the probabilities strongly favor this uptrend being over.

This would be so much more convincing if it was true.

Did you already forget that the market fell for most of 2022?

Did you forget that the market had two dips in 2019?

I did not say specifically that the market has peaked. I specifically said that the market has peaked for the rest of the year.

Do you really think we can't read what you wrote? "Overall though, this move down has established that a top to the 15-year rally has been found, or at least found for the rest of the year. Rallies from here will only be temporary. A traders heaven but a buy and hold hell."

BTW, kinda looks like both claims may be wrong.

I disagree and have met people that have done it and I have done it for the past 17 years.

Suuure you have. I'm definitely going to believe completely unprovable anecdotes posted on a web forum.

Did you really miss the bit about how almost every hedge fund out there fails to beat a simple S&P index fund?

....Two years later, he was worth $200 million (true story). It can certainly be said that he "beat the market consistently"

"2 years" is "consistency?!?" I guess you never found out that he lost $250 million the following year.

Even Bill Gross, who was enormously successful for decades and survived the 2008 downturn, was human after all. He started losing money around 2014, which combined with his erratic behavior, got him fired from Pimco. He started the Janus fund, which... also lost money, pretty much right until he retired. Whoops.

Warren Buffett is known for being one of the absolute best investors in the market. You only wish that you could be 1/100th as good.

I literally just showed you evidence that one of the Absolute Best Investors in the Market hasn't beat the S&P for the past 15 years.

He almost never gets out of anything he buys. Have you asked yourself, why he did it? Could it be that he believes the market "may have peaked"?

You think Buffett never sells any stock holdings?!?

Anyway... AAPL and BOFA were overweighted in his portfolio, making up 28% and 11% respectively. Almost everything else held by BH is single digits.

 

[Luckyone]

So... The experts who have gotten everything wrong for the past 2 years are suddenly right?

that is correct. NO ONE is right all the time but the experts are right more often than those that aren't (like you)

Yesterday was so long ago, wasn't it?

Sorry, but you've got it backwards. Everyone expected the Fed to do a small rate cut in July, but they didn't, which became tinder for a brief panic. No one knows right now if the Fed will do an emergency rate cut (as I assume you thought was "95% certain!!!" yesterday) or will wait until September. It's even possible they won't

Want to bet on it (that they won't)?

Try again. Historically the S&P rises 11% per year. This is why most investors are best served buying and holding a low-fee index fund, rather than engaging in esoteric and/or risky trades involving margin debt, commissions, taxes, and other fees.

Do a bit more research before you open your mouth

How often does the S&P 500 decline?
First it's important to understand that stock downturns — even sharp ones — are common. Although the S&P 500 is down roughly 8% from its peak in July, drops in equity prices of 5% or more have occurred at least once a year for the past four decades, according to Oxford Economics.

Did you already forget that the market fell for most of 2022?

No, but that wasn't a DOWNTREND. It was a reaction to the pandemic and the market recovered from it within a few months.

Did you forget that the market had two dips in 2019?

Dips are trends, they are normal corrections

a top to the 15-year rally has been found, or at least found for the rest of the year. Rallies from here will only be temporary. A traders heaven but a buy and hold hell."

BTW, kinda looks like both claims may be wrong.

??? Here is what I wrote in my newsletter this past Sunday. The market is doing everything I predicted:

One last thing that needs to be understood is that if the bulls want to prevent some additional drops (below what is mentioned above) from happening, they need to do so over the next 3 weeks. Seasonally speaking, August can go either way (up some or down some) but September is seasonally the worst month of the year. This means that the bulls need to do everything in their power (starting this week) to recover some of the losses seen this past week. Chart-wise and in order to do that, these are the now resistance levels above that need to be broken. In the DOW, intraweek resistance is found at 40077. In the SPX and on a daily closing basis, a close above 5399. In the NASDAQ, a daily close above 18796. If these things happen, it will take "some" ammunition away from the bears and make the downside in August not so indicative. A break of these levels will not turn things around, it will just ameliorate the downfall.

I fully expected the drop this week as I outlined the downside targets where support is found and where the computers and algorithms automatically buy. I predicted a low of 5100 in the SPX and the low was 5093.

I literally just showed you evidence that one of the Absolute Best Investors in the Market hasn't beat the S&P for the past 15 years.

Do I need to remind you that the SPX in not an investor but it is where one invests. One stupid question, since you believe so much in the SPX, have you invested in it and made more (percentage-wise) than Buffet?

You think Buffett never sells any stock holdings?!?

Rarely. He is the icon of a buy and hold investor

Anyway... AAPL and BOFA were overweighted in his portfolio, making up 28% and 11% respectively. Almost everything else held by BH is single digits.

You are good at making your points through words but have you put your expertise to work for you? so you can prove that you have made more money (percentage-wise) than I have? My results are all public. I can back them up.

 

[pragmatic]

The reason stock markets exist is so companies can raise capital from a pool of investors and help them succeed. Shorts are effectively betting that a company will fail. It goes against the entire purpose of the stock market.

Valid point.

..