NATO: Russia in ‘material breach’ of nuclear arms treaty

Russia in ‘material breach’ of nuclear arms treaty: NATO statement


Foreign ministers pose for a photo during a meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, 4 December 2018.

12/4/18
NATO formally accused Russia on Tuesday of breaching the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which rid Europe of land-based nuclear missiles, issuing a statement that supported U.S. accusations of Russian violations. “Allies have concluded that Russia has developed and fielded a missile system, the 9M729, which violates the INF Treaty and poses significant risks to Euro-Atlantic security,” NATO foreign ministers said in a statement after a meeting. “We strongly support the finding of the United States that Russia is in material breach of its obligations under the INF Treaty,” the statement said.

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The US maintains, and rightly so, that Russia's land based Novator cruise missiles (and mobile launcher) are in violation of the 1987 INF Treaty. In addition, Russian nuclear-capable Iskander-M cruise missiles can also be fired from the Novator mobile launch vehicle which is another INF violation. Russia has been in material breach of the INF since 2010.


Russia Threatens to Target U.S. Allies If Trump Exits Treaty


Russian Novator cruise missile mobile system. Both the missile and launcher are in INF breach for different reasons.

12/5/18
Russia will target countries hosting U.S. missiles if Washington goes ahead with plans to pull out of a landmark Cold War arms treaty, General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov said Wednesday. “If the INF treaty is destroyed, we won’t leave it without a response,” he said in a presentation to foreign military attaches in Moscow, according to an official transcript. “You as military professionals must understand that the target for Russian retaliation won’t be U.S. territory but the countries where the intermediate-range missiles are deployed.” His comments came hours after the U.S. said it would pull out of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 60 days if Russia doesn’t stop alleged violations. Moscow says it’s complying with the deal. Gerasimov accused the U.S. of seeking to shift the blame for its demise to Russia. The U.S. has said it has no plans to deploy land-based nuclear missiles in Europe once it pulls out of the treaty.

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What Putin is doing here is threatening European nations to put pressure on the US into accepting his INF Treaty violations.

Rogue Valley said:

What Putin is doing here is threatening European nations to put pressure on the US into accepting his INF Treaty violations.

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Government sponsored threat aimed at targeting the weaker members of a group (NATO allies) in order to achieve/settle scores with the originally intended target (US) - Kinda sounds like terrorism.

Russia's been making treaties to break 'em for a hundred years.

Nothing's changed.

Russia violating the treaty since 2010 and shaking their fist against Nato neighbors is an attempt at nuclear blackmail. It's a return to brinkmanship which culminated in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The brinkmanship here is of course that the US will leave the treaty unless, and Russia says it will target Nato countries because.

It suggests Russia and USA may be on the road to resume targeting the homeland of the other as was done during the Cold War. Mutual targeting of the others citizens and communities was a critical defining factor in creating the harsh feel of a Cold War. While neither side was blowing up the other, its people knew the other side would vaporize 'em if it chose to or felt compelled to do it. Or if controls got beyond either of 'em.

Some visualised analysis of what might come when crazy people like Putin are in power:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-oYaVnNDM8

Tangmo said:

Russia's been making treaties to break 'em for a hundred years.

Nothing's changed.

Russia violating the treaty since 2010 and shaking their fist against Nato neighbors is an attempt at nuclear blackmail. It's a return to brinkmanship which culminated in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The brinkmanship here is of course that the US will leave the treaty unless, and Russia says it will target Nato countries because.

It suggests Russia and USA may be on the road to resume targeting the homeland of the other as was done during the Cold War. Mutual targeting of the others citizens and communities was a critical defining factor in creating the harsh feel of a Cold War. While neither side was blowing up the other, its people knew the other side would vaporize 'em if it chose to or felt compelled to do it. Or if controls got beyond either of 'em.

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for how long (how many years) , can stay in cold war 0.2 vova putler?

This is really ironic because of course it is the US which is unilaterally departing from another Treaty, and RV is re-gurgitating a month old story, now with the glossy cover story that Russia is all at fault. This is a very serious destruction of a key arms control agreement.

Here's the independent and widely respected authority Pavel Podvig's take on this bizarre affair. Useful to read all his articles on the INF. Who should we believe in all this? Probably nobody, but certainly not the US :

What was so secret? United States presents its theory of the INF violation - Blog - Russian strategic nuclear forces


Given the confidence with which the United States insists that Russia is in violation, they probably have some fairly solid intelligence. This could be human intelligence, intercepts of phone calls or maybe of the telemetry - something that is fairly good but cannot be shown publicly. Or maybe not - judging by how long it took to convince the Europeans that the violation is real, the evidence may not be all that solid. At this point I wouldn't give U.S. administration the benefit of the doubt. But I don't see a reason to trust the Russian government either.

Where does this leave us and is it possible to find a way to keep the INF Treaty alive? I have written already that inspecting 9M729 is unlikely to be very helpful here. For Russia to agree to show the missile, it would have to be quite certain in advance that the United States will accept that it is a different missile. Otherwise it would just give the U.S. more reasons to accuse it of a treaty violation. The situation is not totally hopeless, but it would require a fairly high level of trust, strong commitment to preserve the treaty, and probably Russia's willingness to take some corrective actions. Alas, all these are in short supply these days.

Westphalian said:

This is really ironic because of course it is the US which is unilaterally departing from another Treaty, and RV is re-gurgitating a month old story, now with the glossy cover story that Russia is all at fault. This is a very serious destruction of a key arms control agreement.

Here's the independent and widely respected authority Pavel Podvig's take on this bizarre affair. Useful to read all his articles on the INF. Who should we believe in all this? Probably nobody, but certainly not the US :

What was so secret? United States presents its theory of the INF violation - Blog - Russian strategic nuclear forces


Given the confidence with which the United States insists that Russia is in violation, they probably have some fairly solid intelligence. This could be human intelligence, intercepts of phone calls or maybe of the telemetry - something that is fairly good but cannot be shown publicly. Or maybe not - judging by how long it took to convince the Europeans that the violation is real, the evidence may not be all that solid. At this point I wouldn't give U.S. administration the benefit of the doubt. But I don't see a reason to trust the Russian government either.

Where does this leave us and is it possible to find a way to keep the INF Treaty alive? I have written already that inspecting 9M729 is unlikely to be very helpful here. For Russia to agree to show the missile, it would have to be quite certain in advance that the United States will accept that it is a different missile. Otherwise it would just give the U.S. more reasons to accuse it of a treaty violation. The situation is not totally hopeless, but it would require a fairly high level of trust, strong commitment to preserve the treaty, and probably Russia's willingness to take some corrective actions. Alas, all these are in short supply these days.

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You're not exactly doing yourself a favour with that article.

Chagos said:

You're not exactly doing yourself a favour with that article.

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Podvig paints a much more balanced picture than RV who displays his usual extreme bias.

The truth is that Russia accuses the US of violations, and that these are not without foundation either.

It is a sad reflection that 30 years after INF was signed we are in a place where neither side trusts each other, and both probably want to see rid of INF for various reasons. So this is about each trying to blame the other. That's the reality, not the Russophobic hate mongering which tries to blame Russia for everything.

Tangmo said:

Russia's been making treaties to break 'em for a hundred years.

Nothing's changed.

Russia violating the treaty since 2010 and shaking their fist against Nato neighbors is an attempt at nuclear blackmail. It's a return to brinkmanship which culminated in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The brinkmanship here is of course that the US will leave the treaty unless, and Russia says it will target Nato countries because.

.

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:lamo

See here - I mean, this is an almost comedic lack of self awareness.

Russia breaks treaties whilst the US is a noble and virtuous state which always keeps its obligations for the greater good :roll:.

Westphalian said:

:lamo

See here - I mean, this is an almost comedic lack of self awareness.

Russia breaks treaties whilst the US is a noble and virtuous state which always keeps its obligations for the greater good :roll:.

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That's your strawman. I said no such thing. It is in fact the strawman you need desperately to concoct as you pump blue smoke into a chamber of mirrors. It's Putin the count who fails to cast an image into the mirrors.

Putin is the Conservative's Conservative globally and to his fallow travelers in the USA. Putin's primary values are a Christian state ruled by a strongman dictator with the guise of democracy. The People's Democratic Republic of Putin. It is Putin's extension of his career at KGB integrated with the former Russian Soviet GRU which is military intelligence. There is nothing about it to recommend, support, defend or to try to promote. Putin is hostile toward the United States and the West and nothing is going to change the fact.

US says Russia must scrap or modify Novator missile system to comply with INF


In INF breach - Russian Novator missiles

12/7/18
WASHINGTON -- Russia must scrap its Novator 9M729 missile systems and launchers or reduce their range to comply with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and prevent a U.S. withdrawal from the Cold War-era pact, U.S. officials say. Andrea Thompson, the undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, told reporters on a teleconference call on December 6 that the weapons system has a range that is not in compliance with the 1987 INF pact. She added that Moscow must "rid the system, rid the launcher, or change the system so it doesn't exceed the range" to bring Russia back "to full and verifiable compliance." "The ball’s in Russia’s court. We can’t do that for them. They have to take the initiative," she added.

U.S. officials have said Russia's deployment of the 9M729, also known as the SSC-8, breaches the ban on ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. On December 4, the United States said it would suspend its obligations under the treaty if Moscow did not return to compliance within two months. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the decision after NATO allies meeting in Brussels "strongly" supported U.S. accusations that Russia violated the terms of the INF. "During this 60 days, we will still not test or produce or deploy any systems, and we'll see what happens during this 60-day period," Pompeo said. The U.S. ambassador to Moscow, Jon Huntsman, who was on the briefing call with Thompson, insisted that a U.S. withdrawal from the INF did not mean "we are walking away from arms control." "We remain committed to arms control, but we need a reliable partner and do not have one in Russia on INF, or for that matter on other treaties that it’s violating." He said "one can only surmise" that Moscow is attempting to "somehow seek an advantage" with the missile – "a little bit like violations we're seeing with other treaties, whether it's the Open Skies Treaty or whether it’s the Chemical Weapons Convention."

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Either Moscow complies with the treaties it signs, or it pays a price for violating its treaty obligations.

The US wants to unilaterally withdraw from a bi-lateral treaty because it doesn't apply to China, Iran etc, so is concocting a strawman cover story blaming Russia.

Let's get real here. Russia doesn't like INF either - so at least we have agreement on that sense, but it's nothing to do with the 9M729.

Westphalian said:

Let's get real here. Russia doesn't like INF either - so at least we have agreement on that sense, but it's nothing to do with the 9M729.

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It has everything to do with the 9M729 .... the flight range of the Novator exceeds the limits agreed upon in the INF.

In addition, the Novator launcher also accommodates the Iskander-M missile which is a separate INF violation.

Rogue Valley said:

It has everything to do with the 9M729 .... the flight range of the Novator exceeds the limits agreed upon in the INF.

In addition, the Novator launcher also accommodates the Iskander-M missile which is a separate INF violation.

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Just like the SM-3 launcher violates INF.

The 9M729 is not a new missile. The US has known about it since 2015. It has no new data. Its just taken 3 years for it to decide it wants to ditch INF.

Westphalian said:

Just like the SM-3 launcher violates INF.

The 9M729 is not a new missile. The US has known about it since 2015. It has no new data. Its just taken 3 years for it to decide it wants to ditch INF.

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Russia has been in breach since 2010.

Rogue Valley said:

Russia has been in breach since 2010.

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The US is in violation and INF is dead as the US is withdrawing from it.


Russia won't be too sorry about that.

Westphalian said:

Russia won't be too sorry about that.

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Another weapons race with the US will bankrupt Russia once again.

Only next time, we won't be so nice when you come begging for financial assistance.

Rogue Valley said:

Another weapons race with the US will bankrupt Russia once again.

Only next time, we won't be so nice when you come begging for financial assistance.

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More faulty analysis:

1. The US has assured its worried European allies that it doesn't plan to turn Europe into a park for US missiles, and Europe into a target for Russian missiles.

2. Russia will never enter a full spectrum arms race with the US. But it doesn't need to. All Russia needs to be able to do is inflict catastrophic damage to the US. We will always maintain that capability, and it's a lot cheaper than trying to run a global military empire.

Westphalian said:

More faulty analysis:

1. The US has assured its worried European allies that it doesn't plan to turn Europe into a park for US missiles, and Europe into a target for Russian missiles.

2. Russia will never enter a full spectrum arms race with the US. But it doesn't need to. All Russia needs to be able to do is inflict catastrophic damage to the US. We will always maintain that capability, and it's a lot cheaper than trying to run a global military empire.

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1. You use "we" consciously and deliberately which only means you've caught up to where the rest here already are and have been. All the same and as was noted in scrolling it doesn't help you -- not in any way.

2. Russian gdp is $2 Trillion which is less than in Italy. You can't afford a "global military empire." You just reduced pensions in Russia which reminds everyone Putin's been bossman there for a long time and things are only getting worse. Russians are no different from many other peoples, i.e., they don't want their son to grow up to be a soldier and die in some neighboring foreign country or abroad that doesn't want to be Russian to begin with. Putin's going head on against the United States which suggests strongly he's gone out of his tree.

Westphalian said:

The US wants to unilaterally withdraw from a bi-lateral treaty because it doesn't apply to China, Iran etc, so is concocting a strawman cover story blaming Russia.

Let's get real here. Russia doesn't like INF either - so at least we have agreement on that sense, but it's nothing to do with the 9M729.

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So how's the weather in Moscow?

Every job in the Kremlin is a snow job.

Tangmo said:

1. You use "we" consciously and deliberately which only means you've caught up to where the rest here already are and have been. All the same and as was noted in scrolling it doesn't help you -- not in any way.

2. Russian gdp is $2 Trillion which is less than in Italy. You can't afford a "global military empire." You just reduced pensions in Russia which reminds everyone Putin's been bossman there for a long time and things are only getting worse. Russians are no different from many other peoples, i.e., they don't want their son to grow up to be a soldier and die in some neighboring foreign country or abroad that doesn't want to be Russian to begin with. Putin's going head on against the United States which suggests strongly he's gone out of his tree.

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1. So what?

2. If you bothered to read my post properly you'd see that I stated very clearly that Russia can not, and will not, engage in a full spectrum arms race with the US. But all Russia needs to do is maintain the ability to inflict massive destruction on the US. Russia will do this, so the US quest for invulnerability is futile.

Westphalian said:

1. So what?

2. If you bothered to read my post properly you'd see that I stated very clearly that Russia can not, and will not, engage in a full spectrum arms race with the US. But all Russia needs to do is maintain the ability to inflict massive destruction on the US. Russia will do this, so the US quest for invulnerability is futile.

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That sounds like a threat from a very vulnerable place.

MAD was the Original "Offset Strategy" of Pentagon as it was called that was initiated during the Eisenhower administration to check thermonuclear havoc that would be -- well, mutual. So it produced a stalemate, almost a checkmate. Never quite a checkmate though eh, given checkmate meant game over. Putin btw never played chess against anyone he couldn't put in jail. Or have shot. Or poisoned. So if you ever have to play chess with your hero himself do try to keep that in mind.

Continuing, the Second Offset Strategy of Pentagon was to go high tech, gps, satellite etc as in Desert Storm. DS and AVF I certainly showed the world to include the faltering USSR that was already on the precipice what they were up against at that point. The big crash everyone heard soon after was the Soviet Union gone belly up on the parlor tables and floor. Or wuz it face down. After all most of the suddenly burned frames and shards of Iraqi military equipment came from Moscow so Kremlin figured it was time to scrap the whole thing over there.

AVF II is the war on terror as a non-state form of warfare and which has yielded pretty much to old fashioned state to state great power relations -- or the failure of 'em that we know from history. Pentagon though is tired of the rinse and repeat of old fashioned state to state warfare. Hence the Third Offset Strategy from Pentagon of countering the enhanced defensive weapons, platforms and systems of China and Russia primarily, if not entirely up to this point.

So on top of the Third Offset Strategy we're talking 6th Generation Warfare. It looks indeed that Pentagon generals like going to the movies and reading scifi books cause it gives 'em ideas now being translated into reality. Either way however here's what we've got...


The Suter ELINT systems we have today, created by the Air Force’s “Big Safari” program, have advanced much further since 2007. They can secretly invade and control an enemy’s air defense radar systems, move their sensors and create a blind spot, and show normal air traffic screens while our fighters, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or bombers are approaching their targets undetected. We can show them recordings of normal air traffic patterns from last week. We can also show them screens with unidentified aircraft coming at them when none exist in their airspace. That gives our intelligence people the opportunity to track and record their response to a perceived (but false) attack, discover their command and control structure, DF (direction find) their SAM (surface-to-air missile) locations when they come up, intercept their communications traffic, and RFP (radio fingerprint) their transmitters (each one identified with a specific military unit). Once we have that information, we can further manipulate space and time, from our enemy’s perspective, and shroud them in a debilitating “fog of war.”

Sixth generation warfare: manipulating space and time - Military Embedded Systems


So think fog cause you're big into foggery already. Trouble is you don't want to find yourself in the middle of one. 6GW gives an entirely new meaning to the old term, Fog of War. Indeed the 6 GW fog is created by our guys on the sunny side over here. US showed some early 6GW when it discombobulated Irans centrefuges while Israel went more spectacular by clearing a radar path to and from the Iraq nuclear plant in Osirak. Nobody over here got as much as a scratch in either of 'em while the bad guys got shafted.

Tangmo said:

So think fog cause you're big into foggery already.

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His chest is all puffed out because the brave Russian Navy and Air Force from occupied Crimea managed to attack two small Ukrainian patrol craft and an outdated tugboat and kidnap the 24 sailors.


Captured Ukrainian boats at Kerch.

Rogue Valley said:

His chest is all puffed out because the brave Russian Navy and Air Force from occupied Crimea managed to attack two small Ukrainian patrol craft and an outdated tugboat and kidnap the 24 sailors.

Captured Ukrainian boats at Kerch.

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Indeed and the small fish go with the Russian Navy small potatoes courage. The borscht ain't what it used to be either.

The only lesson Putin drew from the collapse of his Beloved Soviet Union Russia was to not compete with the US militarily in any serious way. Just rattle the nuclear warheads at US and Europe every time he wants a beef about something. Either that or go grab somebody's tugboat. In this case Ukraine. Cause the in between 'em hasn't been a real or close match for more than a generation of Russians. Putin's problem is that Russians don't want state to state war nor do they want their soldier sons returning in a box from some neighboring country that doesn't want anything to do with the sh!thole Russia is under Putin. Europe and USA are the attraction not Putin and his mafia. Putin's been at the top a long time while things there only keep getting worse.