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Russia's kill chain, or how quickly the army moves from finding a target to firing on it, is now far more responsive and precise than it was at the start of the war in Ukraine. Federico Borsari, a resident fellow researching war technology and innovation at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Business Insider that "the Russians are adapting, and this is definitely something that NATO is noticing." Russia is outpacing the West in artillery production, raising the prospect that NATO must deter an adversary with more battlefield firepower and the fleets of reconnaissance drones that guide it. One of the more serious problems for Russia early in the conflict was that the time between finding a target and firing on it was far too slow. It took hours for indirect fires like artillery and mortars, and even longer for cruise missiles. Borsari wrote in a report published in early April that Russian strikes were sometimes delayed by up to four hours, making them ineffective against Ukrainian units that had long since moved on to a new position. "In the case of the tactical ballistic missile, this was very much the case," he told BI. "Sometimes, it took even longer."
Now, Russia uses a wide range of tactical drones to acquire targets in Ukraine, flooding the airspace with hundreds of observer systems at different altitudes and depths. Sometimes, these ISR platforms can work together to feed Russian commanders different visual angles of the same target. As the Kremlin started to surge drone production, what was a scarce resource in the early invasion soon became the backbone of Russia's reconnaissance. In 2023, Moscow's state media outlet TASS reported that Russia had increased its supply of the Orlan drone by more than 50 times. Insufficient Ukrainian air defenses have also given Russia more freedom of maneuverability with its bigger recon drones, allowing it to collect intelligence on Ukrainian operations in the rear and conduct effective strikes reminiscent of the HIMARS strikes that proved tremendously effective against the Russians. With the drones providing Russia a better view of the battlespace, it's been increasingly using short-range ballistic missiles like the Iskander-M and its devastating glide bombs to hit high-value targets in the Ukrainian rear more precisely. NATO should expect a more experienced Russia ready to fight with precision. "This is important for the British Army and its allies," he wrote, "as the available evidence indicates that Russia has moved away from the Soviet roots that informed its counter-battery doctrine, toward one that is precise, lethal, and operable at scale." Borsari said a more immediate action the US and Europe can take is targeting Russia's manufacturing for high-tech drones and precision munitions, which often rely on parts from overseas.
www.businessinsider.com
