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More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a ‘telling’ sign that’s accompanied past recessions, top economist says

bongsaway

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  • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi followed up his earlier warning that the economy is on the brink of a recession. On Sunday, he pointed out that the start of a recession is often not clear until after the fact. For now, the jobs data don’t signal a recession yet, but more than half of U.S. industries are already shedding workers.
The U.S. economy isn’t in a recession yet, but the number of industries cutting back on headcount is concerning, and future revisions to jobs data could show employment is already falling, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In a series of X posts on Sunday, he followed up his warning from last weekend that the economy is on the brink of a recession.

 
  • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi followed up his earlier warning that the economy is on the brink of a recession. On Sunday, he pointed out that the start of a recession is often not clear until after the fact. For now, the jobs data don’t signal a recession yet, but more than half of U.S. industries are already shedding workers.
The U.S. economy isn’t in a recession yet, but the number of industries cutting back on headcount is concerning, and future revisions to jobs data could show employment is already falling, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In a series of X posts on Sunday, he followed up his warning from last weekend that the economy is on the brink of a recession.

But, but, tariffs are making us rich!
 
Trump's first term was seen as a "success" economically, until Covid hit. Never mind that it was basically the same as what Obama left him, it was still "good". I still believe he would have been reelected had he not ****ed up Covid.

He had the chance to do it all over again. At the end of last year, America's economy was seen as the best in the world. He could have just played golf and kept the status quo, maybe focused on the border stuff except not be so nasty (guys in face masks pulling people off the street, sending innocent people to Cecot)) as he has been been.

But no, he wants full on authority, and he wants his tariffs. He's loved the idea of tariffs all of his life, now he's running roughshod with them. He likely failed his econ courses in college, probably never went to class.

Not sure at this point what he's really doing with them. I know he believes they will help balance trade but they won't. Even if they did, so what? Is us buying less from them to bring trade back in balance really all that great of a thing?

Here's another problem with using tariffs as income. You will lower the demand for foreign goods because people will stop buying some items. New heat pump? Nah, I'll make this old one work. New phone? Too high, this one works. Upgrade your computer? Nah, this works well enough.

Less goods coming in, less money from tariffs.

It's self defeating in many ways.
 
  • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi followed up his earlier warning that the economy is on the brink of a recession. On Sunday, he pointed out that the start of a recession is often not clear until after the fact. For now, the jobs data don’t signal a recession yet, but more than half of U.S. industries are already shedding workers.
The U.S. economy isn’t in a recession yet, but the number of industries cutting back on headcount is concerning, and future revisions to jobs data could show employment is already falling, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In a series of X posts on Sunday, he followed up his warning from last weekend that the economy is on the brink of a recession.

Who was the economists, a democrat, a progressive, a liberal, an anti trumper? Any of those simply can't be trusted.
 
  • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi followed up his earlier warning that the economy is on the brink of a recession. On Sunday, he pointed out that the start of a recession is often not clear until after the fact. For now, the jobs data don’t signal a recession yet, but more than half of U.S. industries are already shedding workers.
The U.S. economy isn’t in a recession yet, but the number of industries cutting back on headcount is concerning, and future revisions to jobs data could show employment is already falling, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In a series of X posts on Sunday, he followed up his warning from last weekend that the economy is on the brink of a recession.


Trump should Tweet/Truth that Mark Zandi is fired.

WW
 
  • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi followed up his earlier warning that the economy is on the brink of a recession. On Sunday, he pointed out that the start of a recession is often not clear until after the fact. For now, the jobs data don’t signal a recession yet, but more than half of U.S. industries are already shedding workers.
The U.S. economy isn’t in a recession yet, but the number of industries cutting back on headcount is concerning, and future revisions to jobs data could show employment is already falling, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In a series of X posts on Sunday, he followed up his warning from last weekend that the economy is on the brink of a recession.


Best part is, now that tRump has fired the lead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we'll never know what the true job numbers are. 1984, here we are!
 
  • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi followed up his earlier warning that the economy is on the brink of a recession. On Sunday, he pointed out that the start of a recession is often not clear until after the fact. For now, the jobs data don’t signal a recession yet, but more than half of U.S. industries are already shedding workers.
The U.S. economy isn’t in a recession yet, but the number of industries cutting back on headcount is concerning, and future revisions to jobs data could show employment is already falling, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In a series of X posts on Sunday, he followed up his warning from last weekend that the economy is on the brink of a recession.

Every major industry is looking at AI and btw, using it. Lots of expensive humans are no longer optimum. When Musk rolls our the world's first personal robots, what do you think is going to happen to domestic help??
 
Trump's first term was seen as a "success" economically, until Covid hit. Never mind that it was basically the same as what Obama left him, it was still "good". I still believe he would have been reelected had he not ****ed up Covid.

He had the chance to do it all over again. At the end of last year, America's economy was seen as the best in the world. He could have just played golf and kept the status quo, maybe focused on the border stuff except not be so nasty (guys in face masks pulling people off the street, sending innocent people to Cecot)) as he has been been.

But no, he wants full on authority, and he wants his tariffs. He's loved the idea of tariffs all of his life, now he's running roughshod with them. He likely failed his econ courses in college, probably never went to class.

Not sure at this point what he's really doing with them. I know he believes they will help balance trade but they won't. Even if they did, so what? Is us buying less from them to bring trade back in balance really all that great of a thing?

Here's another problem with using tariffs as income. You will lower the demand for foreign goods because people will stop buying some items. New heat pump? Nah, I'll make this old one work. New phone? Too high, this one works. Upgrade your computer? Nah, this works well enough.

Less goods coming in, less money from tariffs.

It's self defeating in many ways.
Trump's tariffs cost jobs and put the manufacturing sector in a recession in his 1st term and they were nothing like these new tariffs. We will be lucky not to have a depression under Trump.

Fact Check: Did the Trump tariffs increase US manufacturing jobs?​

NO
The tariffs Trump imposed on Chinese goods in 2018 had a net negative effect on manufacturing jobs as well overall U.S. employment.

The Federal Reserve Board found that the tariffs caused a reduction in manufacturing employment of 1.4%. Modest gains (0.3%) achieved by shielding domestic producers from foreign competition were “more than offset” by rising production costs for manufacturers who used steel as an input (-1.1%) and retaliatory tariffs (-0.7%).

Federal Reserve data recorded approximately 12.4 million manufacturing jobs when Trump became president in January 2017 and 12.2 million when he left in January 2021. There were 12.9 million manufacturing jobs in September 2024, although job creation in the manufacturing sector and manufacturing’s share of total employment are lower than pre-tariff rates.

Economy-wide, Oxford Economics estimated in 2021 that the tariffs and resulting trade war cost 245,000 jobs and 0.5% of GDP while reducing real incomes by $675 per household.

https://econofact.org/factbrief/did-the-trump-tariffs-increase-us-manufacturing-jobs
 
Did anyone really not see this coming? I mean it is the inevitable result of a Protectionist Trade Policy. It's already been given a name. The Redneck Recession.


Tariffs with countries that flagrantly abuse the system (e.g., China) is one thing. Specific tariffs that target certain sectors of the economy? Okay, I get it. But raising tariffs against virtually every country on earth is not a strategy. Tariffs are also destroying confidence in the US as a reliable partner on trade and national security. We're just making BRICS nations argument for them, which is that the world needs another alternative to the US rules-based order.
 
Every major industry is looking at AI and btw, using it. Lots of expensive humans are no longer optimum. When Musk rolls our the world's first personal robots, what do you think is going to happen to domestic help??
It is not AI that is causing job losses or Elon's stupid robot. It is TRUMP and his policies that will put us into a deep recession or worse.

crime-rates-chart-500x408.png
 

More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a ‘telling’ sign that’s accompanied past recessions, top economist says!

If true, what can I say, MAGA!!!
 
Every major industry is looking at AI and btw, using it. Lots of expensive humans are no longer optimum. When Musk rolls our the world's first personal robots, what do you think is going to happen to domestic help??
Before or after the robots catch fire/explode?
 
So as the economic bad news builds to match what non-cultists have been predicting, watch Trump and the cultists try to switch the blame to the Fed. It's all because of interest rates and the bad news has nothing at all to do with Trumps wonderous economic management. Maybe the Forum management could just create some template posts blaming the Fed for the cultists to use. Would save their fingers from getting sore typing all the excuses.
 
Who was the economists, a democrat, a progressive, a liberal, an anti trumper? Any of those simply can't be trusted.
IF there is a recession, the analyst reponsible for creating THAT report will NOT report the recession. They want to keep their job.

And remember when Trump said we needed to stop testing for COVID because it made us look bad. We only had so many cases because we kept testing for it.
 
  • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi followed up his earlier warning that the economy is on the brink of a recession. On Sunday, he pointed out that the start of a recession is often not clear until after the fact. For now, the jobs data don’t signal a recession yet, but more than half of U.S. industries are already shedding workers.
The U.S. economy isn’t in a recession yet, but the number of industries cutting back on headcount is concerning, and future revisions to jobs data could show employment is already falling, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In a series of X posts on Sunday, he followed up his warning from last weekend that the economy is on the brink of a recession.

...This time, Zandi pointed out that the start of a recession is often unclear until after the fact, noting that the National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of when one begins and ends.

According to the NBER, a recession involves “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” It also looks at a range of indicators, including personal income, employment, consumer spending, sales, and industrial production.

Zandi said payroll employment data is by far the most important data point, and declines for more than a month consecutively would signal a downturn. While employment hasn’t started falling yet, it’s barely grown since May, he added.

Payrolls expanded by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for about 100,000. Meanwhile, May’s tally was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s total was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000, meaning the average gain over the past three months is now only 35,000....
 
It doesn’t matter as long as a Republican is in the WH.

The world could end it doesn’t matter as long as…..
 
Trump's first term was seen as a "success" economically, until Covid hit. Never mind that it was basically the same as what Obama left him, it was still "good". I still believe he would have been reelected had he not ****ed up Covid.

He had the chance to do it all over again. At the end of last year, America's economy was seen as the best in the world. He could have just played golf and kept the status quo, maybe focused on the border stuff except not be so nasty (guys in face masks pulling people off the street, sending innocent people to Cecot)) as he has been been.

But no, he wants full on authority, and he wants his tariffs. He's loved the idea of tariffs all of his life, now he's running roughshod with them. He likely failed his econ courses in college, probably never went to class.

Not sure at this point what he's really doing with them. I know he believes they will help balance trade but they won't. Even if they did, so what? Is us buying less from them to bring trade back in balance really all that great of a thing?

Here's another problem with using tariffs as income. You will lower the demand for foreign goods because people will stop buying some items. New heat pump? Nah, I'll make this old one work. New phone? Too high, this one works. Upgrade your computer? Nah, this works well enough.

Less goods coming in, less money from tariffs.

It's self defeating in many ways.
I think you are right that Trump would have been reelected had he not ****ed up Covid. I seem to remember many being particularly fed up with his non- response to Covid. So yes, Covid was what broke Trump's first term.

Regarding tariffs, Trump looks up to President McKinley for being a tariff man, ignoring that President McKinley changed his mind and did a 180 on tariffs towards his second term(at this point his tariffs had already been replaced with a slightly lower rate championed by Congress). The reason McKinley himself became a free trade advocate especially in his last days (he was assassinated) was that he realized US exports were hurt by the tariffs (as other countries had raised tariffs against the US).
 
I think you are right that Trump would have been reelected had he not ****ed up Covid. I seem to remember many being particularly fed up with his non- response to Covid. So yes, Covid was what broke Trump's first term.

Regarding tariffs, Trump looks up to President McKinley for being a tariff man, ignoring that President McKinley changed his mind and did a 180 on tariffs towards his second term(at this point his tariffs had already been replaced with a slightly lower rate championed by Congress). The reason McKinley himself became a free trade advocate especially in his last days (he was assassinated) was that he realized US exports were hurt by the tariffs (as other countries had raised tariffs against the US).
In other words, McKinley used his common sense. We would all benefit from a little of that nowadays!
 
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