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Minimum Wage and Hamburgers

{QUOTE=Iriemon;523361]

If there were a shortage of capital for investment you'd have a point. That hasn't been the case for decades.
It's not about a shortage of capital per se, rather, it's about where existing capital has to be allocated according to the budget, a company only has so much to spend where needed, when labor is arbitrarily increased by law, it forces more allocation upon human resources departments(or management in smaller companies), a company will be faced with labor reduction or re-allocation choices.

The biggest threat to capital for investment isn't the MW but the Govt's fiscal irresponsibility.
Close, it's not about fiscal irresponsibility directly, but that does certainly affect the tax rates that will be imposed on every part of the production process. Government interferance(sp?) is a much bigger problem in this regard in that it unnaturally puts more demand on the natural process of labor acquirement.



Needed is the key word. More workers in a more conducive labor market benefits a company by keeping individual checks low, but with the increases in mandatory wages comes an increased tax percentage, meaning that more employees become more of a burden than an asset, hence, the "fat" gets trimmed. Speaking of Wal-Mart, they already have the self-checkout counters, an entire isle of registers is operated by one associate, what would keep Wal-Mart from simply adding more of these machines once human labor costs became a liability?



You keep repeating the same misleading argument.
It's not misleading, it is a reasonable worst case scenario that always ends an inflationary cycle. Why do we keep repeating the increases in the MW when tax breaks and other economic changes would be more prudent? Simple, it's harder to show progress and win votes.

Yes, over time if the MW is not adjusted for general inflation the benefits or the MW are lost over time. The fact this happens is not an argument against the MW. The answer is to increase the MW. The MW does not increase general inflation.
No, it's not the answer, the idea is to get the value of current earnings up by increasing the value of the dollars earned. When a dollar goes further then less are needed? Right? A MW worker will still have to work an hour to buy a value meal at Mickey D's, they will just have one more dollar to work for.



Everyone in the middle and upper classes go down a peg. It is a very small peg because the percentages of MW earners is very small.
Precisely, which is why it is such a disservice to the middle class to bring them down while acomplishing nothing for the smaller group of people.

But yes, that is the trade off for the MW. Those at the very lowest pegs of society do significantly better and everyone else does insignificantly less better. That is the intent -- help those at the very bottom.
If it's the intent then it fails miserably, because people at the bottom are still at the bottom, and eventually have the same, then less buying power, all while reducing everyone else's buying power. It's not exactly a fair trade off if that's what you want to call it.


Why must the money supply be increased?
To maintain the demand for it.


What is the basis of this statement? There is undeniably a benefit to those earning the MW. The effect is a (very minor) transfer of income to those making the MW from those making more.

Is there some correlation or data that supports your contention that "the trends have not been in favor of a minimal effect long term on the economy?" What trends and what data supports these trends?
Yeah, it's called ECON 101, historically, the minimum wage is always a very temporary solution, which is exactly why we are debating a raise right now, and will be again in the next few years, it is also why the middle class will be talking about reduced buying power in roughly six months to a year and a half.




The greater income goes directly towards purchases, which is as much of a stimulus to the economy as if anyone else spent it.
You'll see temporary gains in buying, but reductions in investment, investment is a much better catalyst for business growth than consumption.
 
 

Right. They have to take a few crumbs and throw them at the lowest paid workers instead of their profits. That is the whole point.


That is the purpose of the MW.


Perhaps. But the MW is not intended to benefit the company.


MW wage increases do not create an inflationary cycle. There were several MW increases in the 90s and there was no inflationary cycle.

I very strongly disagree that tax breaks would be "prudent" at a time when the Govt is running in the red $1/2 trillion a year and is $9 trillion in debt.


No, the idea is to disproporationally improve the purchasing power of bottom end labor. The value of the dollar as a whole has nothing to do with the MW. You are confusing general inflation with relative changes in prices.

Precisely, which is why it is such a disservice to the middle class to bring them down while acomplishing nothing for the smaller group of people.

The effect on the wealthy and middle class is neglible. We calculated in another thread the cost might be $26 billion a year for the MW; spit in the bucket in a nation with $11 trillion gross personal income.

The effect of a MW increase, in this case from about $10k to $14k a year, is significant and substantial to those at the bottom.


If they eventually after years have the same buying power, it is probably because Repubicans are in power and the greedy bastards don't want to throw a few crumbs to those at bottom.

Iriemon Why must the money supply be increased?
To maintain the demand for it.

False. You do not have to increase the money supply to maintain demand for money.


What is your point? A MW increase causes inflation? There were several MW increases in the 90s, inflation was no worse then than in the past 6 years. It was problem better.

If you think increasing the cost of one input in business, and in this case very very marginally at that, causes general inflation, I suggest you check that ECON 101 book again.


You'll see temporary gains in buying, but reductions in investment, investment is a much better catalyst for business growth than consumption.

Pretty hard to make stuff if now one's buying it.
 
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Pretty much every argument presented against minimum wage boils down to "The company will become more efficient". Either they find a way to keep up output with fewer workers or they replace them with machines or they cut spending somewhere else... it's all economic growth and a net plus to the economy. Increasing productivity (labor relative to output) is how a modern economy grows and the only way to increase the overall standard of living.

Yes, there may be some unemployment if low-wage workers are replaced by machines or more productive processes. That free labor is now capable of helping the economy grow a lot better than a perpetual position where they are not needed. It is better for the worker and everyone else if they are let go and allowed to find real value to add. At best, they will use their free time for new skill development - at worst, they will watch TV and continue to contribute nothing as before.

If jobs are lost, then they will be the least productive jobs in the economy. Such workers will have no choice but to increase their productive capabilities and companies must refine the positions to justify higher wages. Outlawing slavery and child labor faced the same issues - workers had to increase productivity to afford the higher living standards legislated on them.

when a demand curve is dropping, production wouldn't need to be maximized, as you've put it, because with less demand, less productivity would be required.

The demand curve does not move - the lower buying power by consumers (due to inflation) is perfectly offset by the higher demand from min wage workers because both amounts are the same.

This is not a zero-sum game, rather, it is an across the board increase to match all sectors of production costs, almost all goods and services will increase in price.

The total cost of the wages would just be shared by a larger part of the consumer market in such a scenario, which is more efficient and ideal. You do not increase the total price of all goods more than the new benefits received by the lowest wage earners. If you now pay your workers $100 more a week then the total cost of your goods will only increase by $100 a week. Your buyers then absorb that and pass the rest on to their buyers, etc. The total cost never grows larger than the original expense... the gain by the workers are just redistributed.

Of course it's zero-sum. Positive multipliers are offset by the matching negative multipliers because the capital was redistributed - not evaporated.
 
I agree, or a negative tax like the EIC for the lowest earners.

Don't you agree it would be better to pursue improvements in policies like the EIC rather than raising the minimum wage? Or even means-tested transfer payments have less distortionary effects on the markets for low-income earners. Pretty much everyone agrees on the effectiveness of EIC, and yet minimum wage is still at the very least hotly contested. Due to the effects it can have on employment, which have been detailed both in theoretical and empirical work.
 
It may be because I've had a few tonight that I am not following, please elaborate on the EIC. You would be absolutely correct on the MW however, theoretically, empirically, and historically, it has been proven to be a losing proposition according to long-term projections.
 
 

Yes, I generally think an EIC is more effective than a MW, though if you are going to eliminate the min wage the EIC would have to be more than a tax credit and more like a negative tax.

I generally understand the EIC, but don't know the intimate details of it.
 
Nobody ever looks at the bright side. Tuna fish won't go up because Ms. Pelosi cut a deal with Starkist to avoid minimum wage increases. And tuna fish is probably better for you than hamburgers anyway.
 

You continue to make this argument, I continue to disagree with it.

You seem to be arguing that because inflation over time eventually negates the relative purchasing power of the MW, that there is no benefit to the MW, based upon the assumption that the increase in MW causes an equivalent increase in inflation.

I disagree. The MW has at most a minor effect on inflation, and significantly increases the purchasing power of those earning the MW.

I agree that if the MW is not indexed for inflation, then over time, general inflation negates the value of the MW, as it does any other fixed income. But that does not negate the value of the MW. After a 40% increase in the MW, it might take 15 years before inflation would erase that increase.

The answer is not to say the MW is meaningless because it eventually is diminished by inflation, but to raise it to match inflation.

Fine, and most people who work full time don't stay at minimum wage, even so, one can still make a survivable living until something comes up.

Most might not, yet many do. If they aren't below the MW level then the MW law doesn't affect them.

Wait, I'm sorry, when is it that companies were more responsible to their workers than their shareholders or partners? When exactly did we become Soviet Russia? And Exactly when did unskilled workers all of a sudden become a hot commodity?

Exactly right. They are not at all. Their job is to maximize profit. They do that in part by minimizing the cost of input, including labor. That means paying low end labor just as little as possible.

It is not a business' duty to pay a decent wage to the worker. That is why you need the law.

It's only intended to benefit politicians among the unskilled these days......do some research.

If you are going to make the assertion it is up to you to back it up.

However, there was a mini-recession.

Are you trying to contend that was caused by the MW increase, the last of which was '97?

Which is a stupid strategy, You will very temporarily increase less than ten percent of the populations buying power while decreasing eighty percent of the buying power of the country in less than five years.

Not stupid at all. You signficantly increase the 10%, which is the goal, while the 80% decrease is marginal.

Total Horse ****, each individual is a tangible loss, any ONE american who can buy less means less sales, it's an aggrigate loss scale that is damn near incomprehensible.

An "incomprehensible" loss caused by a 26 billion increase in low end wages? Don't think so.

thousands of dollars against billions of losses, yep, sounds great in my book, sign me up!

Thousands of dollars per individual for the relatively few that are at the very bottom, versus some billions of losses spread among 90% of the population that is far less than 1% of GDP that is hardly noticeable.

For thosewho care at all about those at the very bottom, it is great.


Now *that* is partisan bullshit. Yes you absolutely can improve economic inequality by providing better wages to those at the bottom.

Iriemon. False. You do not have to increase the money supply to maintain demand for money.

Try again, in a system where employment is maintained, which you assert can happen under the MW, more demand for money means more has to be printed,

Absolutely false. Why do you have to "print more money"?

Eventually, everything catches up in a state of flux, you are trying to argue short term in economics, I can easily argue that because of the stoppage of arbitrary increases inflationary factors have FINALLY levelled off.

Great. I'd love to hear your explanation about how the non-inflation in the 90s was really inflation caused by the MW increases in the 90s.



Raising the MW does not make the cost of gas go up. But maybe you can explain why the MW increases in the 90s didn't cause the inflation you insist will occur.
 
 
 
A minimum wage law won't drive inflation beyond the immediate aftermath. There may be some initial cost-driven upward pressure on prices but firms can normally adjust quickly to a more expensive unskilled labor pool. Inflation is a general phenomena and it's only susceptible to general instrumentals of policy like monetary expansion, not market-specific policies like the minimum wage.

What's important to look at is not the effect on prices but how firms respond by adjusting the capital-labor ratio, which will depend on industry conditions and the nature of the employment. If it's a monopsonostic labor market a minimum wage can actually cause more unskilled workers to be employed at higher wages. This can be called an empirical question but in reality monopsonistic labor markets are very rare and the model's not particularly useful.

The minimum wage policy is questionable at best and it'd be far better to institute a more comprehensive welfare-package which would combine something like the negative income tax with targeted but heavily conditional transfer payments (to minimize distortionary effects on labor markets) rather than pursue something that raises so many doubts.
 
 
 
Can you clarify your terminology? By depreciation I assume you mean a decline in the real value of the dollar, but that's the same as inflation. In any case I still don't think that component of the argument is very useful. Firms are unlikely to adjust prices in response to changes in factor prices especially in highly competitive markets. And most of the industries in which unskilled labor is used, is in fact highly competitive. Fast food, personal services, retail, etcetera. So they are far more likely to make adjustments to their labor pool.

A recent example of this is a study done examining the effects of a minimum wage increase on part-time and full-time employment. He regresses the part-time/full-time employment ratio on a minimum wage variable along with other factors, and finds a negative relationship. Meaning a hike will cause less part-time opportunities to be available. That's just one of the many effects on employment that have been examined, I can post more if you want later.

http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/index/EUFXGL1GGNPHDYM3.pdf
 
 
I will take a look at that later, thank you. I agree with the summation you have presented as that makes much sense.
 
 
I've spelled it out thouroughly enough for you, read back.

I'll suppose you mean the devaluation of fixed MW over time because of inflation. Which again, isn't a problem with a MW, it is a problem with not increasing it over time.



We have a difference of opinion.


~sigh~ Inflation is not a function of fiscal policy. It is a function of monetary policy. Do you understand the difference?


Yes you've made your argument. Your proposition that MW increases result in inflation that "depreciates" the value of the MW is not supported empircally by the effect of MW increases in the 90s, which had no effect on inflation in the 90s or 00s.

It's complicated, but basically, growth needs a mechanism to trigger it, such as long term purchasing and investment,

Demand for products triggers growth.


So what? Just increase it again to keep up with inflation. Simple really.

This is after it rose during the implementation of the MW to start with, besides, you're gonna need a source for that claim.

Historical Poverty Tables

Which pretty much makes my point. Thank you.

Mine too. Thank you.

There is no argument. The idea is to create an economic environment that allows for inflationary trends to become deflationary trends, it's possible.

Why on Earth would you want to do that.

But can't control economic law, which can force it's hand in the worst of circumstances.

How does "economic law" force the Fed to inflate the currency?


Because it gives those desparately struggling to get by on the very bottom rungs of society a chance for a slightly more decent existance, for the cost of a few crumbs from the rest of the pie.
 
This entire argument is pointless. No one has refuted the most basic problem with raising minimum wage.

Just math. If you have $10,000 for labor costs and you are currently paying 10 people $1000 each and the gov't tells you that you have to pay them $1200 each, someone's going to lose thier job. That was a tough one to figure out... :roll:
 
This entire argument is pointless. No one has refuted the most basic problem with raising minimum wage.
Simply put, that's because it can't be refuted.
 
Just math. If you have $10,000 for labor costs and you are currently paying 10 people $1000 each and the gov't tells you that you have to pay them $1200 each, someone's going to lose thier job.

I've seen this refuted several times, and it's not too difficult to figure out. If a company can keep up production with only 8 workers, then they would have fired those other workers long ago.

Normally, companies adjust to the higher wages and increase productivity:
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/protection/condtrav/pdf/infosheets/w-1.pdf
http://www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/get-it.asp?REF=8106071E.PDF&TYPE=browse

In either case, a company that actually reduces the number of workers is creating a more efficient economy. This isn't speculation or propoganda - the definition of creating output with less labor is higher productivity.

Some fired employees will actually find productive work, adding more to the economy. Some will sit at home, watching television, adding nothing to the economy. However, when they were working as employee #10 for a company that could meet output with 8 employees, the situation was exactly the same as when they do nothing.

Employers should be firing unneeded workers so they can do something useful. If a company is so poorly operated that higher minimum wage forces them to do so, then that is better for consumers and employees.
 

The problem is that if you reduce the number of unskilled workers you employ and substitute them with capital or higher-skilled workers, you increase the market prices of those other factors (assuming you can impact the market) which in turn reduces the use of those factors. So labor productivity as you define it will decline in other industries as capital is bid away from those firms. The end result will be a change in the mix of inputs for those firms affected by the minimum wage and those that are not. This isn't a zero sum game either. Unless labor markets are highly uncompetitive (which tends not to be the case for unskilled labor markets) there's going to be a loss among the workers who lost their jobs which is not compensated by those earning greater incomes.

So the situation is not the same as before. Plus there's an output effect due to the factor price increase, and in most cases this effect will be negative. You don't determine how workers are "needed" by looking at a firm and deciding whether or not it could let go said workers if it just became more "productive". No offense but that's retarded logic. In reality we are looking across different markets as they are all interrelated. An inputs value is determined by how it can be used elsewhere; if it's more productively efficient to use that input in the current market than you create a welfare loss by changing that allocation.
 
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