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It's not about a shortage of capital per se, rather, it's about where existing capital has to be allocated according to the budget, a company only has so much to spend where needed, when labor is arbitrarily increased by law, it forces more allocation upon human resources departments(or management in smaller companies), a company will be faced with labor reduction or re-allocation choices.{QUOTE=Iriemon;523361]
If there were a shortage of capital for investment you'd have a point. That hasn't been the case for decades.
Close, it's not about fiscal irresponsibility directly, but that does certainly affect the tax rates that will be imposed on every part of the production process. Government interferance(sp?) is a much bigger problem in this regard in that it unnaturally puts more demand on the natural process of labor acquirement.The biggest threat to capital for investment isn't the MW but the Govt's fiscal irresponsibility.
Needed is the key word. More workers in a more conducive labor market benefits a company by keeping individual checks low, but with the increases in mandatory wages comes an increased tax percentage, meaning that more employees become more of a burden than an asset, hence, the "fat" gets trimmed. Speaking of Wal-Mart, they already have the self-checkout counters, an entire isle of registers is operated by one associate, what would keep Wal-Mart from simply adding more of these machines once human labor costs became a liability?These generalizations are not necessarily true. Cutting workers does not necessarily lead to more efficiency, and will lead to lease revenue and profit if you cut needed workers. If Wal-mart cut its work force by 90%, it wouldn't be more efficient, just a lot less profitable after it had to close 90% of its stores.
It's not misleading, it is a reasonable worst case scenario that always ends an inflationary cycle. Why do we keep repeating the increases in the MW when tax breaks and other economic changes would be more prudent? Simple, it's harder to show progress and win votes.You keep repeating the same misleading argument.
No, it's not the answer, the idea is to get the value of current earnings up by increasing the value of the dollars earned. When a dollar goes further then less are needed? Right? A MW worker will still have to work an hour to buy a value meal at Mickey D's, they will just have one more dollar to work for.Yes, over time if the MW is not adjusted for general inflation the benefits or the MW are lost over time. The fact this happens is not an argument against the MW. The answer is to increase the MW. The MW does not increase general inflation.
Precisely, which is why it is such a disservice to the middle class to bring them down while acomplishing nothing for the smaller group of people.Everyone in the middle and upper classes go down a peg. It is a very small peg because the percentages of MW earners is very small.
If it's the intent then it fails miserably, because people at the bottom are still at the bottom, and eventually have the same, then less buying power, all while reducing everyone else's buying power. It's not exactly a fair trade off if that's what you want to call it.But yes, that is the trade off for the MW. Those at the very lowest pegs of society do significantly better and everyone else does insignificantly less better. That is the intent -- help those at the very bottom.
To maintain the demand for it.Why must the money supply be increased?
What is the basis of this statement? There is undeniably a benefit to those earning the MW. The effect is a (very minor) transfer of income to those making the MW from those making more.
Yeah, it's called ECON 101, historically, the minimum wage is always a very temporary solution, which is exactly why we are debating a raise right now, and will be again in the next few years, it is also why the middle class will be talking about reduced buying power in roughly six months to a year and a half.Is there some correlation or data that supports your contention that "the trends have not been in favor of a minimal effect long term on the economy?" What trends and what data supports these trends?
You'll see temporary gains in buying, but reductions in investment, investment is a much better catalyst for business growth than consumption.The greater income goes directly towards purchases, which is as much of a stimulus to the economy as if anyone else spent it.
Economics laws don't care about who's in charge, partisan attacks won't change economic realities.Only when you have Republicans in charge of the Govt
That would be up to the people who are tired of living at the bottom, what's wrong with taking a little personal responsibility for your own welfare?Your point here is that by paying low end earners less, these things will decrease?
It's not about a shortage of capital per se, rather, it's about where existing capital has to be allocated according to the budget, a company only has so much to spend where needed, when labor is arbitrarily increased by law, it forces more allocation upon human resources departments(or management in smaller companies), a company will be faced with labor reduction or re-allocation choices.
Close, it's not about fiscal irresponsibility directly, but that does certainly affect the tax rates that will be imposed on every part of the production process. Government interferance(sp?) is a much bigger problem in this regard in that it unnaturally puts more demand on the natural process of labor acquirement.
Needed is the key word. More workers in a more conducive labor market benefits a company by keeping individual checks low, but with the increases in mandatory wages comes an increased tax percentage, meaning that more employees become more of a burden than an asset, hence, the "fat" gets trimmed. Speaking of Wal-Mart, they already have the self-checkout counters, an entire isle of registers is operated by one associate, what would keep Wal-Mart from simply adding more of these machines once human labor costs became a liability?
It's not misleading, it is a reasonable worst case scenario that always ends an inflationary cycle. Why do we keep repeating the increases in the MW when tax breaks and other economic changes would be more prudent? Simple, it's harder to show progress and win votes.
No, it's not the answer, the idea is to get the value of current earnings up by increasing the value of the dollars earned. When a dollar goes further then less are needed? Right? A MW worker will still have to work an hour to buy a value meal at Mickey D's, they will just have one more dollar to work for.
Precisely, which is why it is such a disservice to the middle class to bring them down while acomplishing nothing for the smaller group of people.
If it's the intent then it fails miserably, because people at the bottom are still at the bottom, and eventually have the same, then less buying power, all while reducing everyone else's buying power. It's not exactly a fair trade off if that's what you want to call it.
Iriemon Why must the money supply be increased?
To maintain the demand for it.
Yeah, it's called ECON 101, historically, the minimum wage is always a very temporary solution, which is exactly why we are debating a raise right now, and will be again in the next few years, it is also why the middle class will be talking about reduced buying power in roughly six months to a year and a half.
You'll see temporary gains in buying, but reductions in investment, investment is a much better catalyst for business growth than consumption.
Economics laws don't care about who's in charge, partisan attacks won't change economic realities.
If the MW is not raised, eventually (like over 10years) it folks making it lose buying power.
Partisan or not, the Republicans don't increase the MW. That is why MW earners suffered a loss of buying power over 10 years. Everyone else's salary went up with inflation (except CEOs, their salaries went up about 100x inflation) except the poorest who get MW.
That would be up to the people who are tired of living at the bottom, what's wrong with taking a little personal responsibility for your own welfare?
IMO, someone working full-time instead of looking for handout is taking personal responsibility.
when a demand curve is dropping, production wouldn't need to be maximized, as you've put it, because with less demand, less productivity would be required.
This is not a zero-sum game, rather, it is an across the board increase to match all sectors of production costs, almost all goods and services will increase in price.
I agree, or a negative tax like the EIC for the lowest earners.
It may be because I've had a few tonight that I am not following, please elaborate on the EIC. You would be absolutely correct on the MW however, theoretically, empirically, and historically, it has been proven to be a losing proposition according to long-term projections.Don't you agree it would be better to pursue improvements in policies like the EIC rather than raising the minimum wage? Or even means-tested transfer payments have less distortionary effects on the markets for low-income earners. Pretty much everyone agrees on the effectiveness of EIC, and yet minimum wage is still at the very least hotly contested. Due to the effects it can have on employment, which have been detailed both in theoretical and empirical work.
Here is where the fallacy kicks in, the whole point of working is to work toward progress in pay, if someone is trying to "raise a family" on minimum wage, as the argument persists, then they have written themselves off in terms of market viability because all discretionary income goes towards basic needs, this is an economic reality that is constant in the face of government interference and will NOT change according to MW increases, once market factors catch up to raises, they are at absolute zero in buying power again, thus, unless you give an artificial raise every couple of quarters to keep up with the basic economic factors, people at the minimum will never have true "Buying Power", what this translates to is feel good legislation that gets nothing accomplished and makes minimal producers among society feel great for one to six months, certainly not ten years and not even one when all factors are in full effect.If the MW is not raised, eventually (like over 10years) it folks making it lose buying power.
Partisan or not, the Republicans don't increase the MW. That is why MW earners suffered a loss of buying power over 10 years. Everyone else's salary went up with inflation (except CEOs, their salaries went up about 100x inflation) except the poorest who get MW.
Fine, and most people who work full time don't stay at minimum wage, even so, one can still make a survivable living until something comes up.IMO, someone working full-time instead of looking for handout is taking personal responsibility.
Wait, I'm sorry, when is it that companies were more responsible to their workers than their shareholders or partners? When exactly did we become Soviet Russia? And Exactly when did unskilled workers all of a sudden become a hot commodity?Right. They have to take a few crumbs and throw them at the lowest paid workers instead of their profits. That is the whole point.
Actually, the MW was first established by Democrats to keep minorities out of preferability in the workforce becuase they would work for lower wages. You can find sources in the book......That is the purpose of the MW.
Larry Elder- "Ten Things You Can't Say in America"
It's only intended to benefit politicians among the unskilled these days......do some research.Perhaps. But the MW is not intended to benefit the company.
However, there was a mini-recession.MW wage increases do not create an inflationary cycle. There were several MW increases in the 90s and there was no inflationary cycle.
Irrelevent, because the MW and government spending are two entirely different issues.I very strongly disagree that tax breaks would be "prudent" at a time when the Govt is running in the red $1/2 trillion a year and is $9 trillion in debt.
Which is a stupid strategy, You will very temporarily increase less than ten percent of the populations buying power while decreasing eighty percent of the buying power of the country in less than five years.No, the idea is to disproporationally improve the purchasing power of bottom end labor. The value of the dollar as a whole has nothing to do with the MW. You are confusing general inflation with relative changes in prices.
Total Horse ****, each individual is a tangible loss, any ONE american who can buy less means less sales, it's an aggrigate loss scale that is damn near incomprehensible.The effect on the wealthy and middle class is neglible. We calculated in another thread the cost might be $26 billion a year for the MW; spit in the bucket in a nation with $11 trillion gross personal income.
thousands of dollars against billions of losses, yep, sounds great in my book, sign me up!The effect of a MW increase, in this case from about $10k to $14k a year, is significant and substantial to those at the bottom.
More partisan bullshit. You can't polish a turd, and you can't force economic equality by punishing providers of goods and services under the guise of law. Economics are nuetral regardless of party affiliation, and all the MW does is violate basic economic law. Get over the rhetoric and actually pay attention to trends.If they eventually after years have the same buying power, it is probably because Repubicans are in power and the greedy bastards don't want to throw a few crumbs to those at bottom.
Try again, in a system where employment is maintained, which you assert can happen under the MW, more demand for money means more has to be printed, the only way you would be right is if you would be wrong and employment would level off, which would mean that I'm still right and the MW decreases employment.False. You do not have to increase the money supply to maintain demand for money.
Eventually, everything catches up in a state of flux, you are trying to argue short term in economics, I can easily argue that because of the stoppage of arbitrary increases inflationary factors have FINALLY levelled off.What is your point? A MW increase causes inflation? There were several MW increases in the 90s, inflation was no worse then than in the past 6 years. It was problem better.
Sorry, but I aced economics, it's not ONE INPUT OF BUSINESS as you try to simplicitly state, but an overall affect of MULTIPLE INCREASES IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN THAT AFFECT OVERALL DEMAND AND SUPPLY CURVES THUS DISTURBING THE NATURAL STATE OF SUPPLY/DEMAND LAW. But go ahead, by all means, trust the political party that messed the whole thing up to begin with, I obviously can't talk any sense into you.If you think increasing the cost of one input in business, and in this case very very marginally at that, causes general inflation, I suggest you check that ECON 101 book again.
Don't you agree it would be better to pursue improvements in policies like the EIC rather than raising the minimum wage? Or even means-tested transfer payments have less distortionary effects on the markets for low-income earners. Pretty much everyone agrees on the effectiveness of EIC, and yet minimum wage is still at the very least hotly contested. Due to the effects it can have on employment, which have been detailed both in theoretical and empirical work.
Here is where the fallacy kicks in, the whole point of working is to work toward progress in pay, if someone is trying to "raise a family" on minimum wage, as the argument persists, then they have written themselves off in terms of market viability because all discretionary income goes towards basic needs, this is an economic reality that is constant in the face of government interference and will NOT change according to MW increases, once market factors catch up to raises, they are at absolute zero in buying power again, thus, unless you give an artificial raise every couple of quarters to keep up with the basic economic factors, people at the minimum will never have true "Buying Power", what this translates to is feel good legislation that gets nothing accomplished and makes minimal producers among society feel great for one to six months, certainly not ten years and not even one when all factors are in full effect.
Fine, and most people who work full time don't stay at minimum wage, even so, one can still make a survivable living until something comes up.
Wait, I'm sorry, when is it that companies were more responsible to their workers than their shareholders or partners? When exactly did we become Soviet Russia? And Exactly when did unskilled workers all of a sudden become a hot commodity?
It's only intended to benefit politicians among the unskilled these days......do some research.
However, there was a mini-recession.
Which is a stupid strategy, You will very temporarily increase less than ten percent of the populations buying power while decreasing eighty percent of the buying power of the country in less than five years.
Total Horse ****, each individual is a tangible loss, any ONE american who can buy less means less sales, it's an aggrigate loss scale that is damn near incomprehensible.
thousands of dollars against billions of losses, yep, sounds great in my book, sign me up!
More partisan bullshit. You can't polish a turd, and you can't force economic equality by punishing providers of goods and services under the guise of law. Economics are nuetral regardless of party affiliation, and all the MW does is violate basic economic law. Get over the rhetoric and actually pay attention to trends.
Iriemon. False. You do not have to increase the money supply to maintain demand for money.
Try again, in a system where employment is maintained, which you assert can happen under the MW, more demand for money means more has to be printed,
Eventually, everything catches up in a state of flux, you are trying to argue short term in economics, I can easily argue that because of the stoppage of arbitrary increases inflationary factors have FINALLY levelled off.
Sorry, but I aced economics, it's not ONE INPUT OF BUSINESS as you try to simplicitly state, but an overall affect of MULTIPLE INCREASES IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN THAT AFFECT OVERALL DEMAND AND SUPPLY CURVES THUS DISTURBING THE NATURAL STATE OF SUPPLY/DEMAND LAW. But go ahead, by all means, trust the political party that messed the whole thing up to begin with, I obviously can't talk any sense into you.
disagree all you want, but keep in mind that when there was a stable MW and all factors of the supply chain were allowed to adjust, prices for goods and services remained stable for a long period, it wasn't until around the late 60's/early 70's that tax increases, spending problems, and other economic tinkering started to increase the cost of goods, inflation, and created an eventual recession, buying power was reduced as costs increased.You continue to make this argument, I continue to disagree with it.
You seem to be arguing that because inflation over time eventually negates the relative purchasing power of the MW, that there is no benefit to the MW, based upon the assumption that the increase in MW causes an equivalent increase in inflation.
On it's face, maybe, the problem comes along when all the subtle factors shift to accomodate the new increases in cost. In almost everything we buy, someone is making at or just over the minimum wage at some point, each increase will increase the cost to provide supply to the market, hence each step in the process will create a multiple increase effect.I disagree. The MW has at most a minor effect on inflation, and significantly increases the purchasing power of those earning the MW.
Indexing for inflation adds another step to the process, it is further tinkering with the natural flow of the market, it can work, but it can fail as well, I don't know about you, but I like to play it safe when indexing, if you're right, then yes, MW value would stabalize for a time, but eventually the cycle would perpetuate itself again. As far as the increase and percentage go, it might take up to 15 years for the value to decline, it also might take only 6 months, the problem isn't the time frame, it's the system.I agree that if the MW is not indexed for inflation, then over time, general inflation negates the value of the MW, as it does any other fixed income. But that does not negate the value of the MW. After a 40% increase in the MW, it might take 15 years before inflation would erase that increase.
Why not stop the cycle then by doing these things:The answer is not to say the MW is meaningless because it eventually is diminished by inflation, but to raise it to match inflation.
1) eliminate withholding taxes to maximize gross earnings, replace with consumption tax.
2) replace income tax with above as well
3) create a deflationary trend by allowing companies to slowly pay less to new hires after the prevailing wages become sufficient, thus creating a more valuable dollar.
4) have a commodity based standard for money, thus increasing the value of a dollar further and making fewer required, allowing for further reductions in hourly minimums and increasing buying power.
The overall point is that yes, everyone feels the effects of reduced buying power, it is felt more by people who aren't at the bottom Tier, exactly because they don't get an automatic raise, and more descretionary money is lost to basic needs after price increases reduce the value of take home pay.Most might not, yet many do. If they aren't below the MW level then the MW law doesn't affect them.
This is contracictory, it is not the government's job to create wages, only to form the currency allowing said wages to be paid, it is a businesses job to pay wages, and to determine what their human capitols labor is worth, eventually, less valuable employees will be either terminated or will move on naturally when they do not see raises based on merit. What the MW does is to give an automatic raise to all at the very bottom tier, among new hires, the worthless and the meritorious are both set at the same minimum value, thus removing the natural mechanism to deal with labor relations.Exactly right. They are not at all. Their job is to maximize profit. They do that in part by minimizing the cost of input, including labor. That means paying low end labor just as little as possible.
It is not a business' duty to pay a decent wage to the worker. That is why you need the law.
It's not the only factor, but it is a contributor, '97 MW increased, '98 Dot.com crash, '99 fallout from said crash, meantime, buying power in process of depreciation, further complicated by market losses and hiring freezes/labor reductions.Are you trying to contend that was caused by the MW increase, the last of which was '97?
The 10% will still only be able to buy basic goods and services as needed, since there exists no mobility, while the other 80% will LOSE buying power, basic goods/services will cost more and thus reduce descretionary income for those on higher tiers, this translates to less overall market sales of products and services, creating unfavorable market conditions for growth. Sorry, but the 10% does not justify the ends.Not stupid at all. You signficantly increase the 10%, which is the goal, while the 80% decrease is marginal.
I've already explained how this will happen, when it happens again, I'll keep your words in mind.An "incomprehensible" loss caused by a 26 billion increase in low end wages? Don't think so.
If you phrase it in the linear, as a short term absolute, you're right, but think in the long term using the natural cycles of economics, and the overall losses eventually become astronomical.Thousands of dollars per individual for the relatively few that are at the very bottom, versus some billions of losses spread among 90% of the population that is far less than 1% of GDP that is hardly noticeable.
And for those who care about everyone, it's not.For thosewho care at all about those at the very bottom, it is great.
Nope, all you do is create great feelings for people who can only afford the basics, while spreading the misery of economic depreciation to all. If you can improve economic equality with a MW increase, where is the proof? where are all these suburban MW earners that are moving up? Why isn't everyone working middle class? Show me some examples and we'll discuss it further.Now *that* is partisan bullshit. Yes you absolutely can improve economic inequality by providing better wages to those at the bottom.
IF, you somehow maintain full employment after the shock of a minimum wage increase AND the maximum are working for more money THEN the demand FOR more money is increased to keep up with payroll requirements, THUS more supply of money devalues itself because there is less backing capital behind more money.Absolutely false. Why do you have to "print more money"?
Where exactly did I say inflation, I said inflationary factors, meaning once everything settled, the economy finally found it's equilibrium and the end of the cycle completed itself, this is when the value of each dollar earned becomes less than the last MW increase, this is where the last raise flattens out, instead of raising it again, let the market do what it always has and correct itself.Great. I'd love to hear your explanation about how the non-inflation in the 90s was really inflation caused by the MW increases in the 90s.
Gas increases are all part of a bigger problem created by interfering with the markets natural state. Inflation or devaluation will happen, as they always do, why do you keep insisting on the 90's as the only example, first off, we ARE feeling the effects of the last increase, that's exactly why the donkeys, sorry, democrats are asking for another one, because the cycle is completing itself and the next step is devaluation, they are trying to cover it up by throwing more money in the front end to counter the effects, this has happened in the 60's, 70's, and 80's, and is now happening. You keep using a ten year plan, I guess the forty year trend doesn't mean anything to you.Raising the MW does not make the cost of gas go up. But maybe you can explain why the MW increases in the 90s didn't cause the inflation you insist will occur.
disagree all you want, but keep in mind that when there was a stable MW and all factors of the supply chain were allowed to adjust, prices for goods and services remained stable for a long period, it wasn't until around the late 60's/early 70's that tax increases, spending problems, and other economic tinkering started to increase the cost of goods, inflation, and created an eventual recession, buying power was reduced as costs increased.
Unless you can show data that there is a correlation between MW rates and inflation, anecdotal comments prove nothing.
Inflation in the 70s was not caused by tax increases (tax rates remained stable in the 70s) spending problems or other fiscal policy. It was caused by monetary policy, in which the money supply was expanded in a failed attempt to maintain employment. Inflation was stopped when Carter appointed Volker who put the brakes on money supply growth.
On it's face, maybe, the problem comes along when all the subtle factors shift to accomodate the new increases in cost. In almost everything we buy, someone is making at or just over the minimum wage at some point, each increase will increase the cost to provide supply to the market, hence each step in the process will create a multiple increase effect.
It only affects relative prices, not prices overall. And the effect of about $26 billion in increased low end wages on a $13 trillion economy is negligable.
Indexing for inflation adds another step to the process, it is further tinkering with the natural flow of the market, it can work, but it can fail as well, I don't know about you, but I like to play it safe when indexing, if you're right, then yes, MW value would stabalize for a time, but eventually the cycle would perpetuate itself again. As far as the increase and percentage go, it might take up to 15 years for the value to decline, it also might take only 6 months, the problem isn't the time frame, it's the system.
What cycle?
Why not stop the cycle then by doing these things:
1) eliminate withholding taxes to maximize gross earnings, replace with consumption tax.
2) replace income tax with above as well
3) create a deflationary trend by allowing companies to slowly pay less to new hires after the prevailing wages become sufficient, thus creating a more valuable dollar.
4) have a commodity based standard for money, thus increasing the value of a dollar further and making fewer required, allowing for further reductions in hourly minimums and increasing buying power.
What cycle?
The overall point is that yes, everyone feels the effects of reduced buying power, it is felt more by people who aren't at the bottom Tier, exactly because they don't get an automatic raise, and more descretionary money is lost to basic needs after price increases reduce the value of take home pay.
Yes. That is the whole purpose. To increase the relative purchasing power of those at the bottom.
The effect of a $26 billion increase in wage payment on a $13 trillion economy isn't going to affect everyone's else relative purchasing power in any significant way.
This is contracictory, it is not the government's job to create wages, only to form the currency allowing said wages to be paid, it is a businesses job to pay wages, and to determine what their human capitols labor is worth, eventually, less valuable employees will be either terminated or will move on naturally when they do not see raises based on merit. What the MW does is to give an automatic raise to all at the very bottom tier, among new hires, the worthless and the meritorious are both set at the same minimum value, thus removing the natural mechanism to deal with labor relations.
We have a difference of opinion as to the government's job in a capitalist economy.
It's not the only factor, but it is a contributor, '97 MW increased, '98 Dot.com crash, '99 fallout from said crash, meantime, buying power in process of depreciation, further complicated by market losses and hiring freezes/labor reductions.
How was the MW a factor, other than your say-so.
The MW increased in '91 and '96 and didn't cause recessions.
The 10% will still only be able to buy basic goods and services as needed, since there exists no mobility, while the other 80% will LOSE buying power, basic goods/services will cost more and thus reduce descretionary income for those on higher tiers, this translates to less overall market sales of products and services, creating unfavorable market conditions for growth. Sorry, but the 10% does not justify the ends.
This assumes overall purchasing power decreases for which there is no basis for assertion. The 80% suffer a very minor decrease in relative purchasing power, offset by the significant increasein purchasing power by the bottom 10%. It offsets.
If you phrase it in the linear, as a short term absolute, you're right, but think in the long term using the natural cycles of economics, and the overall losses eventually become astronomical.
You have not explained how.
And for those who care about everyone, it's not.
Insignificantly.
Nope, all you do is create great feelings for people who can only afford the basics, while spreading the misery of economic depreciation to all.
The fact that the rest of us suffer a 1/2% loss of overall purchasing power isn't quite "misery." Misery is trying to raise your kid on on a MW that pays $10k a year.
If you can improve economic equality with a MW increase, where is the proof?
It is designed to improve those at the bottom.
where are all these suburban MW earners that are moving up? Why isn't everyone working middle class? Show me some examples and we'll discuss it further.
Huh?
IF, you somehow maintain full employment after the shock of a minimum wage increase AND the maximum are working for more money THEN the demand FOR more money is increased to keep up with payroll requirements, THUS more supply of money devalues itself because there is less backing capital behind more money.
The fallacy is that a demand for a little more money for the extra wages at the low end necessarily results in an increase in the money supply. It does not. The money supply increase is based on Fed policy, not MW wages.
Where exactly did I say inflation, I said inflationary factors, meaning once everything settled, the economy finally found it's equilibrium and the end of the cycle completed itself, this is when the value of each dollar earned becomes less than the last MW increase, this is where the last raise flattens out, instead of raising it again, let the market do what it always has and correct itself.
Meaning those at the bottom receive sub-poverty wages.
Gas increases are all part of a bigger problem created by interfering with the markets natural state. Inflation or devaluation will happen, as they always do, why do you keep insisting on the 90's as the only example, first off, we ARE feeling the effects of the last increase, that's exactly why the donkeys, sorry, democrats are asking for another one, because the cycle is completing itself and the next step is devaluation, they are trying to cover it up by throwing more money in the front end to counter the effects, this has happened in the 60's, 70's, and 80's, and is now happening. You keep using a ten year plan, I guess the forty year trend doesn't mean anything to you.
Your implicit assertion that MW causes inflation is baseless. If that were true, we would have had llower inflation the last few years because the last MW increase was a decade ago.
The MW does not cause general inflation. General inflation is caused by the amount of dollars -- the money supply -- in the system. If the money supply and everything else remains constant, and you increase the wages of the lowest 10%, it is only the relative cost for that labor that changes. Everything else will relatively adjust to reflect that.
Emprically that is born out.
Between 1990 and 1997, the MW increased from $3.8 to $5.15, in '90, 91, 96 and 97. That was a 35% increase.
Between 1997 and 2007, the MW increase was -0-.
Under your theory, we should have seen significantly greater inflation in the 8 year period '92-99 than between 8 year period '99-06. But we do not. The CPI in the former period averaged 2.51% in the former period and 2.65%. Minimum wage increases in the 90s did not have any effect of increasing the overall cost of products.
This is a more concise writing of the basic point I was trying to make, thank you. I made an earlier error of simplifying the use of inflation as the term to make the point, but depreciation is what my major concern is, inflation does tend to level off, this is true, as the increase in monetary supply catches up to the demand for it, depreciation however tends to increase as the adjustments made to accomodate unnatural labor demand requirements take affect, such as increased prices, reduced hours worked per worker, etc. The overall point I am trying to make to those supporting the MW is that there are at best very temporary, minimal positives which do not outweigh long term, subtle negatives.A minimum wage law won't drive inflation beyond the immediate aftermath. There may be some initial cost-driven upward pressure on prices but firms can normally adjust quickly to a more expensive unskilled labor pool. Inflation is a general phenomena and it's only susceptible to general instrumentals of policy like monetary expansion, not market-specific policies like the minimum wage.
Hence, the concept of removing unnatural restrictions to allow for maximum usage of current market conditions by firms which would be more fluid and able to change quickly with fewer reprecussions.What's important to look at is not the effect on prices but how firms respond by adjusting the capital-labor ratio, which will depend on industry conditions and the nature of the employment. If it's a monopsonostic labor market a minimum wage can actually cause more unskilled workers to be employed at higher wages. This can be called an empirical question but in reality monopsonistic labor markets are very rare and the model's not particularly useful.
I think we pretty much agree on the MW but differ on remedies. My opinion is that getting rid of the punitive withholding structure that limits take home pay for those of lesser means, and more fair taxation overall, I think with more take home pay, the need for more wages would be eliminated as the market settled and adjusted accordingly.The minimum wage policy is questionable at best and it'd be far better to institute a more comprehensive welfare-package which would combine something like the negative income tax with targeted but heavily conditional transfer payments (to minimize distortionary effects on labor markets) rather than pursue something that raises so many doubts.
As we have discussed earlier, it isn't just inflation, why do you keep asserting just inflation, deppreciation is just as bad and if allowed to continued has a more lasting affect, I did concede that I should have added that, historically, when the MW has been constantly tinkered with the value of real dollars earned dropped. If you don't believe me, look at the price of a basic good of your choice throughout the decades. If you can still assert that real dollar value hasn't dropped then prove it.Unless you can show data that there is a correlation between MW rates and inflation, anecdotal comments prove nothing.
You're right, it wasn't tax increases or fiscal policy alone, they were contributors to the overall need to increase the money supply, which caused inflation because the demand for money was increased past what it's backing capitol could sustain.Inflation in the 70s was not caused by tax increases (tax rates remained stable in the 70s) spending problems or other fiscal policy. It was caused by monetary policy, in which the money supply was expanded in a failed attempt to maintain employment. Inflation was stopped when Carter appointed Volker who put the brakes on money supply growth.
Sorry, but negative change is not good, period. Relative prices have an affect on the overall prices in a macro economy, there is no independent relationship. You are perfectly entitled to your opinion on what economic damages are okay, but I say none are acceptable when they come from policy and not natural market factors.It only affects relative prices, not prices overall. And the effect of about $26 billion in increased low end wages on a $13 trillion economy is negligable.
The cycle of depreciation. I have explained it enough already.What cycle?
What cycle?
Which does not happen in the long term, thus perpetuating a cycle of dependence on the MW.Yes. That is the whole purpose. To increase the relative purchasing power of those at the bottom.
Then why does the MW need to be increased constantly as your side puts it?The effect of a $26 billion increase in wage payment on a $13 trillion economy isn't going to affect everyone's else relative purchasing power in any significant way.
That is the ultimate end, you don't see effects immediately, but it deosn't necessarily exclude earlier actions as a contributing factor.How was the MW a factor, other than your say-so.
The MW increased in '91 and '96 and didn't cause recessions.
When prices increase your buying power is less, more labor costs equate to higher prices, only those on the bottom get a raise, which negates itself meaning no mobility for those at the bare minimum, however, those who do not see raises must do with less, since the minority of wage earners are at minimum, what's the point except to spread misery.This assumes overall purchasing power decreases for which there is no basis for assertion. The 80% suffer a very minor decrease in relative purchasing power, offset by the significant increasein purchasing power by the bottom 10%. It offsets.
Simple, you are trying to explain a system of raises by saying that a+b=c. You are asserting that a(people at the bottom) + b(more purchases) = c(more economic growth), this completely ignores the fact that other factors are involved. For instance a will turn into a/x(depreciation) at the end of that scale a becomes 0, then we will add the factor i/x(that being households with reduced buying power), and we now have a new factor, d(affect on the economy), meaning c will be affected by all of the above changes in this particular equation, yes, there are other factors, but I want to keep it simple. Basically c is the overall effect of all factors, when depreciation is added, then you have slowed growth along with increased prices, thus, thinking in a cycle versus linear economics.You have not explained how.
So, you would have someone content to stay at the minimum and struggle, being dependent on more government regulation to survive rather than having the incentive to better their lives.......how generous of you. All while penalizing those who have taken the steps to succeed and at least be comfortable, priceless.The fact that the rest of us suffer a 1/2% loss of overall purchasing power isn't quite "misery." Misery is trying to raise your kid on on a MW that pays $10k a year.
Which it doesn'tIt is designed to improve those at the bottom.
It's real simple, if raising the minimum wage is so effective in "providing a living wage" where are all of those people that the last raise helped? How many middle class people, or comfortable people came from the last one? I'll wait for your answer.Huh?
You have argued, I believe, could be wrong, that employment levels can be maintained after a MW increase, well, how do you pay these 26B$ increases without more money?The fallacy is that a demand for a little more money for the extra wages at the low end necessarily results in an increase in the money supply. It does not. The money supply increase is based on Fed policy, not MW wages.
Define "sub-poverty". Considering the poorest of Americans typically have access to transportation, food, clothing, clean water, utilities, phone service, television, radio, and housing. I'm sure many in other countries would love to trade their poverty for our "sub-poverty". Whether you like this statement or not, it is not my responsibility to support other people, however, you want me to pay more and get less by forcing a change in the labor market by law so that people who haven't invested in their future can make more money. How generous of you.Meaning those at the bottom receive sub-poverty wages.
No, it's not.....in the long term, but as you have ignored before, depreciation is pretty much guaranteed.Your implicit assertion that MW causes inflation is baseless. If that were true, we would have had llower inflation the last few years because the last MW increase was a decade ago.
Until the value of a dollar drops and you need to create more, you are entitled to your own opinion, not your own facts.The MW does not cause general inflation. General inflation is caused by the amount of dollars -- the money supply -- in the system. If the money supply and everything else remains constant, and you increase the wages of the lowest 10%, it is only the relative cost for that labor that changes. Everything else will relatively adjust to reflect that.
Once again, economic effects are usually long-term, rarely immediate. Why do you insist on ignoring that?Between 1997 and 2007, the MW increase was -0-.
Under your theory, we should have seen significantly greater inflation in the 8 year period '92-99 than between 8 year period '99-06. But we do not. The CPI in the former period averaged 2.51% in the former period and 2.65%. Minimum wage increases in the 90s did not have any effect of increasing the overall cost of products.
As we have discussed earlier, it isn't just inflation, why do you keep asserting just inflation, deppreciation is just as bad and if allowed to continued has a more lasting affect, I did concede that I should have added that, historically, when the MW has been constantly tinkered with the value of real dollars earned dropped. If you don't believe me, look at the price of a basic good of your choice throughout the decades. If you can still assert that real dollar value hasn't dropped then prove it.
What depreciation?
Sorry, but negative change is not good, period. Relative prices have an affect on the overall prices in a macro economy, there is no independent relationship. You are perfectly entitled to your opinion on what economic damages are okay, but I say none are acceptable when they come from policy and not natural market factors.
Disagree. There are lots of situation where govt regulation is appropriate, IMO.
The cycle of depreciation. I have explained it enough already.
I think this is the first post you've used the term "decpreciation".
Which does not happen in the long term, thus perpetuating a cycle of dependence on the MW.
Then why does the MW need to be increased constantly as your side puts it?
Because any fixed level of income devalues over time with inflation. With moderate inflation ov 2.5%, the MW purchasing power devalues by about 30-35% over 10 years.
When prices increase your buying power is less, more labor costs equate to higher prices, only those on the bottom get a raise, which negates itself meaning no mobility for those at the bare minimum, however, those who do not see raises must do with less, since the minority of wage earners are at minimum, what's the point except to spread misery.
How does increasing the MW negate itself? How does it equate to no mobility?
The 90-95% that don't get a minimum wage don't even feel it.
Simple, you are trying to explain a system of raises by saying that a+b=c. You are asserting that a(people at the bottom) + b(more purchases) = c(more economic growth), this completely ignores the fact that other factors are involved. For instance a will turn into a/x(depreciation) at the end of that scale a becomes 0, then we will add the factor i/x(that being households with reduced buying power), and we now have a new factor, d(affect on the economy), meaning c will be affected by all of the above changes in this particular equation, yes, there are other factors, but I want to keep it simple. Basically c is the overall effect of all factors, when depreciation is added, then you have slowed growth along with increased prices, thus, thinking in a cycle versus linear economics.
I never contended that increasing the MW increases overall economic growth. You were the one arguing that it decreases growth and I was disputing that.
So, you would have someone content to stay at the minimum and struggle, being dependent on more government regulation to survive rather than having the incentive to better their lives.......how generous of you. All while penalizing those who have taken the steps to succeed and at least be comfortable, priceless.
Disagree. Increasing the MW gives those at the bottom a significant increase in purchasing power while barely effecting the other 90%.
It's real simple, if raising the minimum wage is so effective in "providing a living wage" where are all of those people that the last raise helped? How many middle class people, or comfortable people came from the last one? I'll wait for your answer.
Poverty was falling in the 90s. It started increasing again in the 00s.
You have argued, I believe, could be wrong, that employment levels can be maintained after a MW increase, well, how do you pay these 26B$ increases without more money?
More specifically, I said that given the current low unemployment rate and demand for labor, I doubted the MW increase would have a significant impact un unemployment.
The 26% is paid for from other sources, including an increase in prices, and a marginal decrease in profits and pay of those at the top.
Define "sub-poverty". Considering the poorest of Americans typically have access to transportation, food, clothing, clean water, utilities, phone service, television, radio, and housing. I'm sure many in other countries would love to trade their poverty for our "sub-poverty". Whether you like this statement or not, it is not my responsibility to support other people, however, you want me to pay more and get less by forcing a change in the labor market by law so that people who haven't invested in their future can make more money. How generous of you.
Less than the poverty level.
No, it's not.....in the long term, but as you have ignored before, depreciation is pretty much guaranteed.
I never disagreed that fixed incomes devalue over time with inflation.
Until the value of a dollar drops and you need to create more, you are entitled to your own opinion, not your own facts.
It is a fact that the Fed controls the money supply.
Once again, economic effects are usually long-term, rarely immediate. Why do you insist on ignoring that?
Because you continue to insinuate that the benefits of a MW increase are short term and therefore not worth doing.
I will take a look at that later, thank you. I agree with the summation you have presented as that makes much sense.By depreciation, I mean the buying power of a dollar according to price changes exclusively, not the real value which certainly is a subject of inflation or the comparison to global currency exchanges. Even when the value of a dollar remains constant, if prices must be met to continue supply and demand quotas stable, then the usual effect is increased costs, which typically negates raises in pay. You may be right, the inflation argument can be excluded for the most part, I still fear it is a continual probability towards the end of a cycle caused by policy changes that affect the market heavily. I will throw the MW in there only as a worst case scenario. I do agree in part that the MW jobs will adjust, here is where I disagree with many proponents of the MW, They say employment in these sectors can be maintained, I say hiring trends toward the negative to make up for the HR losses incurred therein, the bigger overall argument was that if the people who say employment remains stable in the MW sector then economic effects on the dollar will reduce it's value in the American marketplace.Can you clarify your terminology? By depreciation I assume you mean a decline in the real value of the dollar, but that's the same as inflation. In any case I still don't think that component of the argument is very useful. Firms are unlikely to adjust prices in response to changes in factor prices especially in highly competitive markets. And most of the industries in which unskilled labor is used, is in fact highly competitive. Fast food, personal services, retail, etcetera. So they are far more likely to make adjustments to their labor pool.
A recent example of this is a study done examining the effects of a minimum wage increase on part-time and full-time employment. He regresses the part-time/full-time employment ratio on a minimum wage variable along with other factors, and finds a negative relationship. Meaning a hike will cause less part-time opportunities to be available. That's just one of the many effects on employment that have been examined, I can post more if you want later.
http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/index/EUFXGL1GGNPHDYM3.pdf
I've spelled it out thouroughly enough for you, read back.What depreciation?
Regulation is fine, as long as it's necessary, and proper. Overregulation is worse than unnecessary, it's improper and negatively affects the U.S. economy, which in turn drags down world economies. We can discuss those at a later time, but for the most part, if the regulation seeks to create workers rights rather than to interpret them, they are typically unnecessary. I think the MW regulations in this country are extremely abusive uses of government power and stink of overregulation.Disagree. There are lots of situation where govt regulation is appropriate, IMO.
I think I've used it before, but could be wrong, I have explained the mistake of verbiage earlier however.I think this is the first post you've used the term "decpreciation".
So instead of focusing on the symptom, i.e. MW, let's fix the problem. Inflation can be eased by responsible fiscal policy and can be fixed by a combination of that plus relieving regulatory pressure on the market and allowing it to settle back into a growth cycle.Because any fixed level of income devalues over time with inflation. With moderate inflation ov 2.5%, the MW purchasing power devalues by about 30-35% over 10 years.
Thought I covered that one already. Basically, it's a process of increased raw materials and services along the supply chain that creates a multiplier effect for each provided good or service, while not all items along the supply chain will be affected, most will, increasing costs to the point that what would have been a nice raise in a stable market, say, 1.25/hr(unskilled, merit based) and easily absorbed by natural labor supply/demand principles, it will not have that benefit when it is a required, across the board raise based on law, the market has to options, adjust heavily or pass costs along to consumers, when all available adjustments are made, prices must be increased to meet production costs, thus, all increases fall on consumers, including those in the minimum wage, thus negating the MW AND reducing gains made by those working over it.how does increasing the MW negate itself? How does it equate to no mobility?
The 90-95% that don't get a minimum wage don't even feel it.
It's complicated, but basically, growth needs a mechanism to trigger it, such as long term purchasing and investment, when companies have to adjust budgets, sometimes investment dollars dry up or are reduced, this can create economic slowdowns, stagnations, or declines. There are other factors, of course, but these seem to be the most relevant to this particular topic. Purchasing trends must follow value trends, as deemed by the overall buying power of the american populace, so reducing buying power will cause dopoffs in sales of luxury items, durable goods, and other goods whose purchases can or must be delayed because basic items are requiring more budgetary dollars, it's the trade-off principle of economic decision making.I never contended that increasing the MW increases overall economic growth. You were the one arguing that it decreases growth and I was disputing that.
And I disagree as well, in the short term, yes, a burger flipper will make an extra dollar per hour, whereas a secretary's will not. Once products require more money to purchase, the burger flipper's minimum wage will buy exactly what it did at the previous minimum if we're lucky, wheres the secretary's wage will buy less than it did previously did.Disagree. Increasing the MW gives those at the bottom a significant increase in purchasing power while barely effecting the other 90%.
This is after it rose during the implementation of the MW to start with, besides, you're gonna need a source for that claim.Poverty was falling in the 90s. It started increasing again in the 00s.
Read back for my response, I've already explained it enough.More specifically, I said that given the current low unemployment rate and demand for labor, I doubted the MW increase would have a significant impact un unemployment.
Which pretty much makes my point. Thank you.The 26% is paid for from other sources, including an increase in prices, and a marginal decrease in profits and pay of those at the top.
There is no argument. The idea is to create an economic environment that allows for inflationary trends to become deflationary trends, it's possible.I never disagreed that fixed incomes devalue over time with inflation.
But can't control economic law, which can force it's hand in the worst of circumstances.It is a fact that the Fed controls the money supply.
That's because I am in business as an independent. If I sold you a retirement policy that promised you a 75% return on investment for six months but the drawback was a 125% loss from month 7 through year three, and within four years and further you would need to pay me 10$ a month in premium you would want to track me down and kill me. so why do you insist that it's a great idea for everyone to be stuck paying for someone else's MW needs by legislating a bad fiscal policy?Because you continue to insinuate that the benefits of a MW increase are short term and therefore not worth doing.
I've spelled it out thouroughly enough for you, read back.
Regulation is fine, as long as it's necessary, and proper. Overregulation is worse than unnecessary, it's improper and negatively affects the U.S. economy, which in turn drags down world economies. We can discuss those at a later time, but for the most part, if the regulation seeks to create workers rights rather than to interpret them, they are typically unnecessary. I think the MW regulations in this country are extremely abusive uses of government power and stink of overregulation.
So instead of focusing on the symptom, i.e. MW, let's fix the problem. Inflation can be eased by responsible fiscal policy and can be fixed by a combination of that plus relieving regulatory pressure on the market and allowing it to settle back into a growth cycle.
Thought I covered that one already. Basically, it's a process of increased raw materials and services along the supply chain that creates a multiplier effect for each provided good or service, while not all items along the supply chain will be affected, most will, increasing costs to the point that what would have been a nice raise in a stable market, say, 1.25/hr(unskilled, merit based) and easily absorbed by natural labor supply/demand principles, it will not have that benefit when it is a required, across the board raise based on law, the market has to options, adjust heavily or pass costs along to consumers, when all available adjustments are made, prices must be increased to meet production costs, thus, all increases fall on consumers, including those in the minimum wage, thus negating the MW AND reducing gains made by those working over it.
It's complicated, but basically, growth needs a mechanism to trigger it, such as long term purchasing and investment,
And I disagree as well, in the short term, yes, a burger flipper will make an extra dollar per hour, whereas a secretary's will not. Once products require more money to purchase, the burger flipper's minimum wage will buy exactly what it did at the previous minimum if we're lucky, wheres the secretary's wage will buy less than it did previously did.
Which pretty much makes my point. Thank you.
There is no argument. The idea is to create an economic environment that allows for inflationary trends to become deflationary trends, it's possible.
But can't control economic law, which can force it's hand in the worst of circumstances.
That's because I am in business as an independent. If I sold you a retirement policy that promised you a 75% return on investment for six months but the drawback was a 125% loss from month 7 through year three, and within four years and further you would need to pay me 10$ a month in premium you would want to track me down and kill me. so why do you insist that it's a great idea for everyone to be stuck paying for someone else's MW needs by legislating a bad fiscal policy?
Just math. If you have $10,000 for labor costs and you are currently paying 10 people $1000 each and the gov't tells you that you have to pay them $1200 each, someone's going to lose thier job. That was a tough one to figure out... :roll:
Simply put, that's because it can't be refuted.This entire argument is pointless. No one has refuted the most basic problem with raising minimum wage.
Just math. If you have $10,000 for labor costs and you are currently paying 10 people $1000 each and the gov't tells you that you have to pay them $1200 each, someone's going to lose thier job.
I've seen this refuted several times, and it's not too difficult to figure out. If a company can keep up production with only 8 workers, then they would have fired those other workers long ago.
Normally, companies adjust to the higher wages and increase productivity:
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/protection/condtrav/pdf/infosheets/w-1.pdf
http://www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/get-it.asp?REF=8106071E.PDF&TYPE=browse
In either case, a company that actually reduces the number of workers is creating a more efficient economy. This isn't speculation or propoganda - the definition of creating output with less labor is higher productivity.
Some fired employees will actually find productive work, adding more to the economy. Some will sit at home, watching television, adding nothing to the economy. However, when they were working as employee #10 for a company that could meet output with 8 employees, the situation was exactly the same as when they do nothing.
Employers should be firing unneeded workers so they can do something useful. If a company is so poorly operated that higher minimum wage forces them to do so, then that is better for consumers and employees.
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