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Looking ahead to Trump's potential impact on the District Courts/Trade Court (still no Article III nominations made to this point)

Safiel

Safiel

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As of today (4/17/2025) there are 42 Article III District Court Judicial vacancies and 0 Trade Court vacancies. Additionally, there are 10 announced future vacancies to the Article III District Courts and 0 announced future vacancies to the Trade Court. Less than half of the vacancies available to Trump at the start of his first administration.

Just as importantly, the ideological shift will be milder, because the vast majority of the open seats were previously held by Republican appointed incumbents, whereas in 2017, Trump was able to replace many Democrat appointed incumbents.

The vacancies are also primarily in red States that are already dominated by Republican appointees.

One current vacancy in Connecticut, two in New York, one in California. Five of the future vacancies are in blue States.

So 9 blue State vacancies to 33 red State vacancies will tend to blunt Trump's impact.

And because of the huge size of the courts in California and New York, Trump's appointments in those States will barely be noticed.

Trump's biggest impact will fall in States where Republicans already dominate, so I forecast little practical change at this time in the District Courts and Trade Court.
 
Rich2018 said:
The less impact the orange clown has, the happier I am.
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Far less impact than his first term. Obviously he will get 200+ total appointments in the Article III Judiciary, in addition to the 234 he got the first time around. But Biden did a good job with his 235 appointments in essentially "blocking" Trump from making any significant impact this time around.
 
Safiel said:
Far less impact than his first term. Obviously he will get 200+ total appointments in the Article III Judiciary, in addition to the 234 he got the first time around. But Biden did a good job with his 235 appointments in essentially "blocking" Trump from making any significant impact this time around.
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Far less impact on the judiciary perhaps, but already Trump is having a disastrous effect elsewhere.
 
Does he have a horse to nominate?
 
j brown's body said:
Does he have a horse to nominate?
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He hasn't announced or made any Article III Judicial nominations yet, or for that matter Article IV or Article I Judicial nominations.

I would expect the first nominations when the Senate returns from recess near the end of April.
 
I hope the Democrats keep a list so they can undo the damage caused by Trump.
 
Rich2018 said:
I hope the Democrats keep a list so they can undo the damage caused by Trump.
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Nothing they can do, but nominate their own candidates when a Democrat regains the Presidency.

Of course, if Democrats manage to retake the Senate in 2026, they could block Trump's nominees.
 
Safiel said:
Nothing they can do, but nominate their own candidates when a Democrat regains the Presidency.

Of course, if Democrats manage to retake the Senate in 2026, they could block Trump's nominees.
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With regards to judicial appointments, yes.
 
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