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July 4th (tribal politics and climate change)

Germinator

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found this July 4th "news" item interesting

Trump at Independence Day celebration: 'Biden is perhaps the most unpatriotic president in American history'

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-independence-day-celebration-joe-020200330.html

sad truth is political image (and tribal beliefs) is what 99.9999% people consider (and pretty much stop there)

since it's the 4th of July weekend, perhaps its time to consider the image of uncle sam (and how it plays a role in how people see the issue of climate change)


4x6-PC-TRUMP-climate-change-analysis-coverup.png


this patriotic graphic appeals to me because if you look at the fine print, it tells the scientific truth!!!

in keeping w/ the patriotic theme (and "science") consider,...

4x6-PC-lead-a-horse-to-science.png


as a pilot I had the good fortunate to learn about the OODA loop

https://military.wikia.org/wiki/OODA_loop

I mention this because basically "situational awareness" is important if one wants to prevent being killed off

4x6-PC-DENIERS-too-busy-to-notice.gif
 
^^^
continued

sad truth is 99.9999% of people don't have the brains (or "cajones") to understand that the first step needed to solve a problem,... is to understand the problem

in the case of climate change,... the basic science that 99.9999% of people don't understand is the basic chemical combustion process (and how it relates to their every lives)

4x6-PC-01-combustion-reaction-CO2-diffusion.png


one thing 99.9999% of people don't stop and wonder about is how much "fossil fuels" humanity has burned since the start of the industrial revolution (and consider the amont of CO2 produced)

4x6-PC-02-keeling-curve-june-2021.png


FWIW looking at the ratio of various carbon isotopes indicates the CO2 spike is the direct result of the chemical combustion of "fossil fuels"

https://oilprice.com/The-Environmen...-Prove-Humans-Have-Caused-Global-Warming.html

given global daily oil consumption of oil is near 100 million barrels of oil a day (AND there are 42 gals of oil in a barrel)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Much-Crude-Oil-Has-The-World-Really-Consumed.html

...that's a "yuge" amount of oil burned daily!!!!

last thing about climate change that 99.9999% of people don't appreciate is how long science has indicated CO2 will remain in the atmosphere,... even if humanity "magically" managed to stop polluting the atmosphere w/ various greenhouse gases (right now),... the full warming effect of an emission (by humanity) may not be felt for centuries,... AND since CO2 is a stable molecule it can stay in the atmosphere up to a thousand years

said another way it could take a hundred thousand years or so for CO2 levels to naturally drop to levels when I was a university student back in 1990 (given the june monthly 2021 average of 419 ppm)

4x6-PC-03-Global-mean-temperature-response-to-CO2.png


Abstract
In a recent letter, Ricke and Caldeira (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 124002) estimated that the timing between an emission and the maximum temperature response is a decade on average. In their analysis, they took into account uncertainties about the carbon cycle, the rate of ocean heat uptake and the climate sensitivity but did not consider one important uncertainty: the size of the emission. Using simulations with an Earth System Model we show that the time lag between a carbon dioxide (CO2) emission pulse and the maximum warming increases for larger pulses. Our results suggest that as CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, the full warming effect of an emission may not be felt for several decades, if not centuries.

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/55292641.pdf
 
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sad truth is 99.9999% of people don't have the brains?

correction: 99.9999% of conservatives and rightwingers don't have the brains - nor the curiosity, nor the desire to learn, nor the self-awareness of realized how limited their knowledge is.
 
found this July 4th "news" item interesting



sad truth is political image (and tribal beliefs) is what 99.9999% people consider (and pretty much stop there)

since it's the 4th of July weekend, perhaps its time to consider the image of uncle sam (and how it plays a role in how people see the issue of climate change)


4x6-PC-TRUMP-climate-change-analysis-coverup.png
The fact is, the agreements being done dramatically help the Chinese. I can see how this is correctly or incorrectly construed to make such a claim.

Can anyone here show evidence that these claimed negotiations do not help the Chinese? They are allowed to build numerous dirty coal power plants.

this patriotic graphic appeals to me because if you look at the fine print, it tells the scientific truth!!!

in keeping w/ the patriotic theme (and "science") consider,...

4x6-PC-lead-a-horse-to-science.png
Yes, considered and disagree with your assessment. A horse will not drink polluted/poisonous water. They know better.

as a pilot I had the good fortunate to learn about the OODA loop

https://military.wikia.org/wiki/OODA_loop

I mention this because basically "situational awareness" is important if one wants to prevent being killed off

4x6-PC-DENIERS-too-busy-to-notice.gif

You obviously lack such situational awareness. I think you are influenced by the lies out there. The real situation is we would have to turn back to a 1700's way of life to stop what is called antropogenic climate change. We would still have some with our wood stoves producing soot. Even then, we had an influence. I find it very disturbing that so many people buy into the rhetoric that greenhouse gasses are the problem. there are other factors as well. We have a dramatic effect with land use changes. I believe at least twice as much as the greenhouse gasses we source into the atmosphere. Then there is the fact that more greenhouse gasses are good for agriculture.

This is a money grab. To tax carbon emissions. To control people.
 
sad truth is 99.9999% of people don't have the brains?

correction: 99.9999% of conservatives and rightwingers don't have the brains - nor the curiosity, nor the desire to learn, nor the self-awareness of realized how limited their knowledge is.
True. That includes most the people here who think they do. But it isn't dependent on political association. The left/right ideals on both sides are indoctrinated thinking. Both extremes are wrong.
 
^^^
continued

sad truth is 99.9999% of people don't have the brains (or "cajones") to understand that the first step needed to solve a problem,... is to understand the problem

in the case of climate change,... the basic science that 99.9999% of people don't understand is the basic chemical combustion process (and how it relates to their every lives)

4x6-PC-01-combustion-reaction-CO2-diffusion.png


one thing 99.9999% of people don't stop and wonder about is how much "fossil fuels" humanity has burned since the start of the industrial revolution (and consider the amount of CO2 produced)
I would say you are over estimating your assessment. You are claiming only one in a million understand it? So.... Only about 330 people understand it? Are you claiming you and I are two of the only people in the USA that understand it?

Sorry. You are flat out wrong. You also incorrectly use an combustion example for methane then speak of gasoline. That type of gaff puts you into the "not understanding" category.
So?

CO2 is good for plants. I would like to see it rise and stabilize to about 600 ppm.

given global daily oil consumption of oil is near 100 million barrels of oil a day (AND there are 42 gals of oil in a barrel)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Much-Crude-Oil-Has-The-World-Really-Consumed.html
Do you know if that is US gallons, or imperial gallons?

...that's a "yuge" amount of oil burned daily!!!!
Yes. It is.

last thing about climate change that 99.9999% of people don't appreciate is how long science has indicated CO2 will remain in the atmosphere,... even if humanity "magically" managed to stop polluting the atmosphere w/ various greenhouse gases (right now),... the full warming effect of an emission (by humanity) may not be felt for centuries,... AND since CO2 is a stable molecule it can stay in the atmosphere up to a thousand years
True. It takes a rather long time to dissipate from the atmosphere. Can you quantify why this is important by giving us sold facts about its dangers? I only see good, in creating more farmland and being a critical molecule for photosynthesis.

said another way it could take a hundred thousand years or so for CO2 levels to naturally drop to levels when I was a university student back in 1990 (given the june monthly 2021 average of 419 ppm)

4x6-PC-03-Global-mean-temperature-response-to-CO2.png
I hope you understand that in all of history, we probably only sources maybe 500 GtC. That chart shows we actually don't do so bad considering at present, we probably source 10 GtC annually.

Such graphs scaled so far from reality, pose little reliable reality. It does show however, that larger pulses than our annual sourcing, the greatest impact is seen in under a decade.
 
^^^
continued

sad truth is 99.9999% of people don't have the brains (or "cajones") to understand that the first step needed to solve a problem,... is to understand the problem

in the case of climate change,... the basic science that 99.9999% of people don't understand is the basic chemical combustion process (and how it relates to their every lives)



one thing 99.9999% of people don't stop and wonder about is how much "fossil fuels" humanity has burned since the start of the industrial revolution (and consider the amont of CO2 produced)



FWIW looking at the ratio of various carbon isotopes indicates the CO2 spike is the direct result of the chemical combustion of "fossil fuels"

https://oilprice.com/The-Environmen...-Prove-Humans-Have-Caused-Global-Warming.html

given global daily oil consumption of oil is near 100 million barrels of oil a day (AND there are 42 gals of oil in a barrel)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Much-Crude-Oil-Has-The-World-Really-Consumed.html

...that's a "yuge" amount of oil burned daily!!!!

last thing about climate change that 99.9999% of people don't appreciate is how long science has indicated CO2 will remain in the atmosphere,... even if humanity "magically" managed to stop polluting the atmosphere w/ various greenhouse gases (right now),... the full warming effect of an emission (by humanity) may not be felt for centuries,... AND since CO2 is a stable molecule it can stay in the atmosphere up to a thousand years

said another way it could take a hundred thousand years or so for CO2 levels to naturally drop to levels when I was a university student back in 1990 (given the june monthly 2021 average of 419 ppm)

4x6-PC-03-Global-mean-temperature-response-to-CO2.png
I noticed that you did not actually link to the paper that produced the quote and the graphic.
The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission
The title of the paper says it all, that the time lag between emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission,
the problem with that is the lowest emission level evaluated was 100 GtC, or about 10 times the annual human emission level.
Here is what they found for the 100 GtC pluse.
For a 100 GtC pulse of CO2 released into the atmosphere with a background CO2 concentration of 389 ppm,
R&C found the median time between an emission and maximum warming to be 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years.
So if a 100 GtC pulse take 10.1 years, and the 1000 GtC pulse took 31 years, what would the lag be for the 9.6 GtC annual human emission?
You also trimmed the quote from the abstract. I have bolded the portion you included, I will it for other to judge if the excluded statement,
changes the content.
Our results suggest that as CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, the full warming effect of an emission may not be felt for several decades, if not centuries.
Most of the warming, however, will emerge relatively quickly, implying that CO2 emission cuts will not only benefit subsequent generations but also the generation implementing those cuts.
 
^^^
continued

sad truth is 99.9999% of people don't have the brains (or "cajones") to understand that the first step needed to solve a problem,... is to understand the problem

in the case of climate change,... the basic science that 99.9999% of people don't understand is the basic chemical combustion process (and how it relates to their every lives)

4x6-PC-01-combustion-reaction-CO2-diffusion.png


one thing 99.9999% of people don't stop and wonder about is how much "fossil fuels" humanity has burned since the start of the industrial revolution (and consider the amont of CO2 produced)

4x6-PC-02-keeling-curve-june-2021.png


FWIW looking at the ratio of various carbon isotopes indicates the CO2 spike is the direct result of the chemical combustion of "fossil fuels"

https://oilprice.com/The-Environmen...-Prove-Humans-Have-Caused-Global-Warming.html

given global daily oil consumption of oil is near 100 million barrels of oil a day (AND there are 42 gals of oil in a barrel)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Much-Crude-Oil-Has-The-World-Really-Consumed.html

...that's a "yuge" amount of oil burned daily!!!!

last thing about climate change that 99.9999% of people don't appreciate is how long science has indicated CO2 will remain in the atmosphere,... even if humanity "magically" managed to stop polluting the atmosphere w/ various greenhouse gases (right now),... the full warming effect of an emission (by humanity) may not be felt for centuries,... AND since CO2 is a stable molecule it can stay in the atmosphere up to a thousand years

said another way it could take a hundred thousand years or so for CO2 levels to naturally drop to levels when I was a university student back in 1990 (given the june monthly 2021 average of 419 ppm)

4x6-PC-03-Global-mean-temperature-response-to-CO2.png
the first step needed to solve a problem,... is to understand the problem

There obviously isn't a problem. First it was ten years of Global Cooling and now
it's been forty years of Global Warming, Climate Change, The Climate Crisis, etc.
and exactly what is the problem? You know, the catastrophic disaster that the
Democrats have been predicting for the last 50 years?

The polar bears are still here, sea level continues to rise just like it did 200 years ago,
world food production is up, and extreme storms haven't increased in frequency.
 
the first step needed to solve a problem,... is to understand the problem

There obviously isn't a problem. First it was ten years of Global Cooling

When was that exactly? Oh, you mean the 1970's when peer reviewed papers on global warming outnumbered those on global cooling 6:1?

and now
it's been forty years of Global Warming, Climate Change, The Climate Crisis, etc.
and exactly what is the problem? You know, the catastrophic disaster that the
Democrats have been predicting for the last 50 years?

You say "democrats" like you have no clue about the history of AGW.

The polar bears are still here, sea level continues to rise just like it did 200 years ago,
world food production is up, and extreme storms haven't increased in frequency.

If you want us to follow you you will have to prove to many of us (some with much more scientific background than you have) that the earth's climate experts are mostly wrong.

That's gonna be tough. Especially since some here have far more scientific background than you do.
 
the first step needed to solve a problem,... is to understand the problem

There obviously isn't a problem. First it was ten years of Global Cooling and now
it's been forty years of Global Warming, Climate Change, The Climate Crisis, etc.
and exactly what is the problem? You know, the catastrophic disaster that the
Democrats have been predicting for the last 50 years?

The polar bears are still here, sea level continues to rise just like it did 200 years ago,
world food production is up, and extreme storms haven't increased in frequency.

Falsehoods and denier talking points. Nothing more. As usual.
 
Sorry. You are flat out wrong. You also incorrectly use an combustion example for methane then speak of gasoline. That type of gaff puts you into the "not understanding" category.

all the statements are true,...

4x6-PC-01-combustion-reaction-CO2-diffusion.png



FWIW given the space constraints (for an illustration) selected CH4 (i.e. "methane") as the fossil fuel used in combustion reaction example because when I looked for "benzine" which a longer chain of carbon molecules (that is another example of fossil fuel),... couldn't find one as spiffy looking (that appealed to my eye)

400px-Benzene_Representations.svg.png


language can be pretty sloppy,... but the bottom line is CO2 is produced whenever there is a combustion process

https://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_difference_between_gasoline_and_benzene

CO2 is good for plants. I would like to see it rise and stabilize to about 600 ppm.

I only see good, in creating more farmland and being a critical molecule for photosynthesis.

science indicates in the PETM when CO2 concentrations were higher plants grew lazy,... IOW w/ elevated CO2 levels plants needed fewer stomata (when this happens there isn't as much photosynthesis)

33615_evo_resources_resource_image_372_original.gif


then there is another down side fact ya might not have considered,...

Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide are associated with reductions in protein and multiple key nutrients in rice, according to a new field study by an international team of scientists.

https://newsroom.uw.edu/news/increasing-co2-levels-reduce-rices-nutritional-value
 
all the statements are true,...




FWIW given the space constraints (for an illustration) selected CH4 (i.e. "methane") as the fossil fuel used in combustion reaction example because when I looked for "benzine" which a longer chain of carbon molecules (that is another example of fossil fuel),... couldn't find one as spiffy looking (that appealed to my eye)



language can be pretty sloppy,... but the bottom line is CO2 is produced whenever there is a combustion process

https://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_difference_between_gasoline_and_benzene





science indicates in the PETM when CO2 concentrations were higher plants grew lazy,... IOW w/ elevated CO2 levels plants needed fewer stomata (when this happens there isn't as much photosynthesis)



then there is another down side fact ya might not have considered,...
Thanks for posting the article about Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide are associated with reductions in protein and multiple key nutrients in rice,
I had forgotten about the study referenced in the article.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries
What is interesting is that when plants grow faster, and increase yields, like in higher CO2 environments,
there is less time for the crops to pick up ground based nutrients and minerals.
So a poor farmer would get more crop yield, but each kilo of rice would have fewer nutrients and minerals, than the slower growing crops.
 
Thanks for posting the article about Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide are associated with reductions in protein and multiple key nutrients in rice,
I had forgotten about the study referenced in the article.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries
What is interesting is that when plants grow faster, and increase yields, like in higher CO2 environments,
there is less time for the crops to pick up ground based nutrients and minerals.
So a poor farmer would get more crop yield, but each kilo of rice would have fewer nutrients and minerals, than the slower growing crops.
I would say you are over estimating your assessment. You are claiming only one in a million understand it? So.... Only about 330 people understand it? Are you claiming you and I are two of the only people in the USA that understand it?

perhaps the figure 99.9999% might be a slight exaggeration BUT the figure does in fact have a scientific basis in fact (that not many understand the various fields of science associated w/ climate change)

a few years ago there was study done in my home town (of San Diego) to find out what people knew about the science of climate change,... basically the findings were no one was able to describe the basic scientific mechanism of climate change


thinking the findings were a fluke, at a start up conference (conducted my own informal poll) AND also went to a meetup of SD350.org (which is a group of environmental activists), there I asked people attending what causes climate change,... sadly, conformed the findings of study (which found basically no one in the general public understands the basic science AND can put things into context)

given the downtime (because of pandemic), decided to develope a pitch deck (w/ graphic images) to hopefully teach what sadly isn't about the basic science of climate change,... and placed the PDFs on GoogleDocs AND to make the info easy to access registered a domain name

www.ThereIsNoPlanet-B.org

one of the things I did long ago to learn how to program was to deconstruct "Eliza" the chat bot


an idea I'm working on now in my spare time is trying to code a chat bot like "Eliza" to discuss the hard fact science of climate change

also have been playing around w/ xPlane which is a flight simulator that has a pretty accurate digital world


my idea is to repurpose the xPlane flight simulator (since is has a pretty accurate digital model of the world w/ "coast lines") and use it as a scientific visualizing tool to show users "simulated" effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise

there are existing web sites that show the projected effects BUT figure w/ a flight simulator that has accurate graphics of airports AND various buildings, why not take all those digital models of building on the coast lines and show them "underwater"

 
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perhaps the figure 99.9999% might be a slight exaggeration BUT the figure does in fact have a scientific basis in fact (that not many understand the various fields of science associated w/ climate change)

a few years ago there was study done in my home town (of San Diego) to find out what people knew about the science of climate change,... basically the findings were no one was able to describe the basic scientific mechanism of climate change


thinking the findings were a fluke, at a start up conference (conducted my own informal poll) AND also went to a meetup of SD350.org (which is a group of environmental activists), there I asked people attending what causes climate change,... sadly, conformed the findings of study (which found basically no one in the general public understands the basic science AND can put things into context)

given the downtime (because of pandemic), decided to develope a pitch deck (w/ graphic images) to hopefully teach what sadly isn't about the basic science of climate change,... and placed the PDFs on GoogleDocs AND to make the info easy to access registered a domain name

www.ThereIsNoPlanet-B.org

one of the things I did long ago to learn how to program was to deconstruct "Eliza" the chat bot


an idea I'm working on now in my spare time is trying to code a chat bot like "Eliza" to discuss the hard fact science of climate change

also have been playing around w/ xPlane which is a flight simulator that has a pretty accurate digital world


my idea is to repurpose the xPlane flight simulator (since is has a pretty accurate digital model of the world w/ "coast lines") and use it as a scientific visualizing tool to show users "simulated" effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise

there are existing web sites that show the projected effects BUT figure w/ a flight simulator that has accurate graphics of airports AND various buildings, why not take all those digital models of building on the coast lines and show them "underwater"

P.S. we already get flooding, hurricane storm surge, and high tide, up to 15 feet.
The actual sea level projections are closer to 12 inches by 2100!
 
P.S. we already get flooding, hurricane storm surge, and high tide, up to 15 feet.
The actual sea level projections are closer to 12 inches by 2100!

FWIW what got me thinking about using a flight simulator to visualize sea level rise (due to climate change), is my news feeds which bring up stories about what happened in Florida



every once in a while I happen to drive by bill's home (which is on prime beach front land,... for now)


long story short is, the community of Del Mar (where bill has a home),... property owners there are pretty much in denial of the issue of long term sea level rise (because doing so would decrease property values)


anyway playing around w/ xPlane gave me the idea that since it was possible to model buildings and coast lines, why not repurpose the simulator it to show broadly what will happen (i.e. bill's home being flooded due to rising sea levels,... and on the other coast, using a flight simulator we can see what will happen to TRUMPs home)


one aspect few think about WRT the issue of climate change, is the "huge" flood insurance bill(s) which the fed gov is the the financial backstop for,...


personally as a taxpayer I don't want to be held responsible for bill gates or TRUMPs luxury home (on expensive beachfront property)
 
perhaps the figure 99.9999% might be a slight exaggeration BUT the figure does in fact have a scientific basis in fact (that not many understand the various fields of science associated w/ climate change)

a few years ago there was study done in my home town (of San Diego) to find out what people knew about the science of climate change,... basically the findings were no one was able to describe the basic scientific mechanism of climate change


thinking the findings were a fluke, at a start up conference (conducted my own informal poll) AND also went to a meetup of SD350.org (which is a group of environmental activists), there I asked people attending what causes climate change,... sadly, conformed the findings of study (which found basically no one in the general public understands the basic science AND can put things into context)
Yep. And we have so many people believing the AGW narrative as being real dangerous, without the understanding. They have been indoctrinated. That's why sometimes we have referred to it here as the religion of AGW, or that people are cult like in the belief.
 
Yep. And we have so many people believing the AGW narrative as being real dangerous, without the understanding. They have been indoctrinated. That's why sometimes we have referred to it here as the religion of AGW, or that people are cult like in the belief.
“Been indoctrinated” and “the religion of AGW” and “cult like” denier talking points.
 
“Been indoctrinated” and “the religion of AGW” and “cult like” denier talking points.
But they fit you so well. You keep babbling about things you don't understand.
 
But they fit you so well. You keep babbling about things you don't understand.

Nothing that’s you said in the post that I referenced had anything to do directly with the science of AGW. It was all just denier talking point babbling. Show otherwise. You can’t.
 
FWIW what got me thinking about using a flight simulator to visualize sea level rise (due to climate change), is my news feeds which bring up stories about what happened in Florida



every once in a while I happen to drive by bill's home (which is on prime beach front land,... for now)


long story short is, the community of Del Mar (where bill has a home),... property owners there are pretty much in denial of the issue of long term sea level rise (because doing so would decrease property values)


anyway playing around w/ xPlane gave me the idea that since it was possible to model buildings and coast lines, why not repurpose the simulator it to show broadly what will happen (i.e. bill's home being flooded due to rising sea levels,... and on the other coast, using a flight simulator we can see what will happen to TRUMPs home)


one aspect few think about WRT the issue of climate change, is the "huge" flood insurance bill(s) which the fed gov is the the financial backstop for,...


personally as a taxpayer I don't want to be held responsible for bill gates or TRUMPs luxury home (on expensive beachfront property)
You should read up on what the actual levels of sea level rise is in Florida! Certainly not 6 feet in the next 79 years!
 
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