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ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way
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Key Takeaways
  • Leaked US intelligence Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.
  • Ukrainian officials acknowledged limited Ukrainian battlefield successes during recent localized counterattacks in and around Bakhmut.
  • Russian milbloggers uniformly attacked a proposal for “military censorship,” further indicating that the community is highly motivated to defend its privileged position.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that it intercepted a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile for the first time on May 15.
  • The Kremlin has reportedly banned high-ranking officials from resigning during the war in Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on May 14 and 15 confirming the provision of more Western military aid.
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast but ISW has observed no visual confirmation of these claims.
  • Russian forces continued to launch ground assaults in and around Bakhmut and conducted limited offensive operations near Donetsk City.
  • Ukrainian intelligence reported that approximately 152,000 Russian military personnel in southern Ukraine continue defensive efforts ahead of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.
  • Russian authorities continue efforts to take advantage of migrant labor and incentivize foreigners into contract military service.
  • Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to set conditions to forcibly relocate Ukrainians from occupied territories to Russia. (doing so is a war crime)
  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko received a briefing from Belarusian generals on May 15 following recent speculation about his possible illness or death.


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Ukraine's defense forces killed about 199,460 Russian invaders between February 24, 2022 and May 15, 2023, including 580 in the past day alone.



In the spotlight.....





"Exploiting it has led to Ukrainian casualties, but at the end of the day, war isn't about absolutes. It's about relative advantages."


"The ground forces are greatly eroded, they have run into big problems."


"Ukraine... Our troops are gradually advancing in two directions in the suburbs of Bakhmut."


"Since May 8, 106 Russian artillery systems were reportedly lost to Moscow's forces."


"These weapons mark a "very substantial development" because they allow Ukraine to access targets much further behind the front lines."


"France will train and equip several battalions with tens of armored vehicles and light tanks, including AMX-10RCs.”



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