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ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2023

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way
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Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces may be engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian fronts and launch a decisive offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast.
  • The Russian military appears to be shifting its focus toward conventional forces deployed to Luhansk Oblast and away from the non-traditional force structure of the Wagner Group and its focus on Bakhmut.
  • The Kremlin and Russian milbloggers attempted to downplay the Western provision of tanks to Ukraine, indicating that they likely find these systems threatening to Russian prospects.
  • Russian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Svatove as Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Kreminna.
  • Ukrainian forces have likely made advances around Kreminna.
  • Ukrainian officials acknowledged that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Soledar.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. Russian forces reportedly continued localized offensive operations near Vuhledar.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct small-scale ground attacks across the Zaporizhia Oblast front line, likely to attempt to fix Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Russian milbloggers are divided over the veracity of Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov’s ongoing, overblown information operation.
  • The Kremlin is attempting to downplay new restrictions on crossing the Russian border, likely in an effort to contain panic within Russian society about a likely second mobilization wave.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin may be attempting to conduct another wave of mobilization discreetly out of concern for undermining his support among Russians.


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The Ukrainian defense forces eliminated about 123,860 Russian invaders from February 24, 2022, to January 26, 2023, including 780 soldiers in the last day alone.



In the spotlight.....





The Ukrainian army retreated from the salt mining town of Soledar to 'preserve the lives of personnel'.”


"These 'limited spoiling attacks' were taking place across most of the front line in Ukraine in order to 'disperse and distract' Ukrainian forces."


Carlson has never stopped carrying Putin's water.


"Solovyov said that the decision showed how the Germans 'no longer remember their guilt' referring to World War II."


The Swiss had been blocking the export of ammunition used by Germany's Marder APC's.


What the Biden administration neglects to mention is that the 31 Abrams tanks and the 8 M88A2 recovery vehicles have yet to be built.



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