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Reform's annual conference takes place this weekend in Birmingham, with 5,500 tickets
reportedly already sold. It is thought that one in five of the nation's lobbyists will be
there too. The party has now been ahead in the polls for five months.
Never before has a party other than Conservative or Labour been ahead in the polls
for so long. Indeed, since the party's success in English local elections in May, it has
consistently been averaging 30% to 31%, enough to put it well ahead of all its rivals.
reportedly already sold. It is thought that one in five of the nation's lobbyists will be
there too. The party has now been ahead in the polls for five months.
Never before has a party other than Conservative or Labour been ahead in the polls
for so long. Indeed, since the party's success in English local elections in May, it has
consistently been averaging 30% to 31%, enough to put it well ahead of all its rivals.
Sir John Curtice: How Reform's capture of the Brexit vote could be enough to win an election
The party has now been ahead in the polls for five months, but can it keep the momentum?
We finally have a breakdown based on polling opinion and statistics and Reform are consistently polling in the 30% mark - way above Labour but what are the issues that make this support so unwavering?
"according to Ipsos, 68% of voters feel that the economy will get worse over the
next year, up from 43% at the time of last year's election and as high as it has
ever been a year into a new Parliament. Among those whose current party preference
is Reform, a remarkable 89% are pessimistic about the prospects for the economy."
next year, up from 43% at the time of last year's election and as high as it has
ever been a year into a new Parliament. Among those whose current party preference
is Reform, a remarkable 89% are pessimistic about the prospects for the economy."
I find this one ironic as many Brexit supporters wanted the economy to shrink so as to make the UK less appealing to migration. They gave us Brexit and I guess thought a shrinking economy would only affect immigrants?
"a record 59% are dissatisfied with the NHS. Among those who voted Reform last
year, the figure is even higher – 69%."
year, the figure is even higher – 69%."
Also ironic as Farage is in favour of US style insurance companies having access to the NHS
"Most voters think that immigration is too high. An Opinion poll in August found
that 71% feel that way. But nearly everyone who is now backing Reform (97%)
expresses that view."
that 71% feel that way. But nearly everyone who is now backing Reform (97%)
expresses that view."
No surprise here, the same 97% turned out in force to pull us out of the EU over immigration.
81% of those who voted Reform last year believe that migrants have undermined rather
than enriched the country's culture. Equally 73% feel that migrants have been bad for
the country's economy.
than enriched the country's culture. Equally 73% feel that migrants have been bad for
the country's economy.
No surprise here, a huge proportion of Reform supporters think everything bad in the UK is because of foreigners, migrants and asylum seekers. None that I speak to online or in the real world are aware that Brexit put us in the situation where illegal migrants could not be returned to France as we left the EU without agreeing a successor to the Dublin III agreement.
"53% of Reform voters believe that attempts to give equal opportunities for lesbians,
gay men and bisexuals have "gone too far". Some 49% say the same of equal
opportunities for black and Asian people, while 71% express that view in the case
of transgender people."
gay men and bisexuals have "gone too far". Some 49% say the same of equal
opportunities for black and Asian people, while 71% express that view in the case
of transgender people."
No surprise here either, the older population does not like LGBTQ+ and think society has gone too far in including them and this applies for the majority of Reform supporters in their opinion to the black and Asian population of the UK.
"Reform voters are less supportive than other voters of virtually any measure designed
to address climate change."
to address climate change."
A large does of climate scepticism from Reform supporters.
So there we have it based on opinion research carried out. To me, it's also become "Rebrand" rather than "Reform" as yet more former Conservatives from the Boris Johnson wing of the party seek to improve their political fortunes by joining REFORM.