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Is the White House trying to engineer a recession? This Wall Street pro explains the vision.

mrjurrs said:
Everything he does is done to benefit Putin.
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huh? how so ?

an Orange puppet trying to benefit a putin puppet ?

we need to see the Bigger Picture people, the TDS is getting tiring. let's think better.
 
Mika-El said:
I think trying to suggest at this time the current regime deliberately does anything let alone has the intelligence to intend to do anything or carry out anything is unlikely.

The entire administration is in panic mode going minute to minute in an absolute leadership vacuum. Anything resulting comes out of default from chaos and last second unintentional decisions based on covering up a mistake.

Please do Bessin or Lutnick (who has vanished now his best friend Musk is gone) look like they have any clue about anything? Does that genius Peter Navarro? The US Reserve Board ignores Trump as do all world leaders and multi-nationals especially his own multi-nationals.

What we have is a demented man over his head oblivious to the world living in a fantasy land and whose sycophants have no clue at this point what to do with.
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🙂 (y)
 
JohnfrmClevelan said:
trump is just a useful idiot. There are smart people behind the scenes. Project 2025. The legal effort to overturn the 2020 election. trump's little brain can't comprehend what's going on, but they are using him to smash up the government into a malleable pile of parts.
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He is an idiot tes, but is he useful>

Tge people behind Project 2025 are a loose network of individuals who all fight with one another and their ideology means nothing to Trump. Trump has ideology he believes in and he can not read or understand any kind of ideology. He used Project 2025 cult followers as much as they thought they were going to use him.

You can't impose a Project 2025 agenda if you have no one who can pass it through congress as laws and we surely see just how incompetent everyone in Trump's cabinet or his advisors are in that regard.

By the way if you think big business is behind Trump, his tariff chaos has sabotaged that sector supporting him.

Trump literally has no allies. He has alienated every possible ally he might have had. The only thing keeping him in office at this point is that there is no consensus as to who would replace him. He deliberately [ut Vance in as his failsafe. Vance is so gawd damn incompetent no one wants him as President either.

Trump does not follow any discernable plan. He is incoherent. He lives in the deluded moment of what ever he thinks makes him look good-otherwise the intelligence and details required to implement any recession could not be understood by him with his dementia.

Also the problem is when someone is so dumb as Trunp was to start with, adding his dementia to it makes it impossible to tell how much of him now is just his dishonesty or idiocy and how much of it is delusional thought from his dementia. He certainly does not remember anything he says within seconds and his speech pattern has deteriorated to the point he can not utter complete thoughts.

He is not sitting in meetings listening and planning a damn thing. He erects flag poles, gives meaningless press conferences attacking his same imagined enemies, and he plays golf.
 
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Mika-El said:
He is an idiot tes, but is he useful>

Tge people behind Project 2025 are a loose network of individuals who all fight with one another and their ideology means nothing to Trump. Trump has ideology he believes in and he can not read or understand any kind of ideology. He used Project 2025 cult followers as much as they thought they were going to use him.

You can't impose a Project 2025 agenda if you have no one who can pass it through congress as laws and we surely see just how incompetent everyone in Trump's cabinet or his advisors are in that regard.

By the way if you think big business is behind Trump, his tariff chaos has sabotaged that sector supporting him.

Trump literally has no allies. He has alienated every possible ally he might have had. The only thing keeping him in office at this point is that there is no consensus as to who would replace him. He deliberately [ut Vance in as his failsafe. Vance is so gawd damn incompetent no one wants him as President either.

Trump does not follow any discernable plan. He is incoherent. He lives in the deluded moment of what ever he thinks makes him look good-otherwise the intelligence and details required to implement any recession could not be understood by him with his dementia.

Also the problem is when someone is so dumb as Trunp was to start with, adding his dementia to it makes it impossible to tell how much of him now is just his dishonesty or idiocy and how much of it is delusional thought from his dementia. He certainly does not remember anything he says within seconds and his speech pattern has deteriorated to the point he can not utter complete thoughts.

He is not sitting in meetings listening and planning a damn thing. He erects flag poles, gives meaningless press conferences attacking his same imagined enemies, and he plays golf.
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Number of Days of President Donald Trump in Office, it is 153 Since January 20, 2025.

Number of days Days of President Donald Trump Spent Golfing is 37.

Percentage of Presidency of President Donald Trump Spent Golfing 24.2% of his second term so far.

Estimated cost to taxpayers for President Donald Trump's golfing since returning to office: $51,800,000 dollars.

But remember, to President Donald Trump there are, "Too many non-working holidays in America. It is costing our Country $BILLIONS OF DOLLARS...!"
 
Revelation said:
huh? how so ?

an Orange puppet trying to benefit a putin puppet ?

we need to see the Bigger Picture people, the TDS is getting tiring. let's think better.
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themoscowproject.org

Putin’s Payout: 12 Ways Trump has Supported Putin’s Foreign Policy Agenda - The Moscow Project

In May 2017, the FBI formally opened a counterintelligence investigation into the President of the United States to determine whether he had been working on behalf of the Russian government, according to The New York Times. The inquiry into the President was formally folded into the Special...
themoscowproject.org themoscowproject.org

That's a pretty long list already, and it was from 2019. Since then, you have the Russian invasion of Ukraine and everything trump has done to yank support from Ukraine and get cozy with Russia.

For 80 friggin' years Russia has been our enemy, and Europe our allies - until now. That is 100% on trump, who coincidentally owes Russian bankers a pile of money.
 
I think the plan in some quarters was to create recession and unemployment, so 2/3 of the workers would have to work 60 hours to make what they used to in 40 hours. The other 1/3, desperately applying every day, would help ensure those workers don't slack off. Especially when the health care goes away. But with half the workers about to be fired and replaced by AI, it kind of diverts into unknown territory.

The collapse of the dollar is a different issue. Not just Trump but all the legislators are herding his people (i.e. their anonymous donors) into Bitcoin. Then Treasury bonds stop selling. Lebanon is a template: eventually the banks stop allowing withdrawals of dollar money while the currency drops to a small fraction of its value. Then the old folks all die (like in Russia's great era of reform). Seems all very familiar, but I'm still not really sure what to do about it.
 
Revelation said:
huh? how so ?

an Orange puppet trying to benefit a putin puppet ?

we need to see the Bigger Picture people, the TDS is getting tiring. let's think better.
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In February, the United States voted against Ukraine's resolution condemning Russian aggression. Washington voted unanimously with Russia and Belarus, while even some Kremlin sympathizers decided to abstain.
 
JohnfrmClevelan said:

In February, the United States voted against Ukraine's resolution condemning Russian aggression. Washington voted unanimously with Russia and Belarus, while even some Kremlin sympathizers decided to abstain.
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ok John, interesting article.

but only half baked.

IMHO, the whole Ukraine/Russia war is a fraud and can be stopped in 24 hours or less, IF THE TRUTH WERE KNOWN.

however Oligarchs lie and people die. ALL THE Time

the sheep don't get it, so soak up the MSN article you feature and call it a day. go on, because that is what you are going to do, and you don't need my help.

Russia man bad, and Orange man bad.

got it.

actually this is more of a Banker's War the Oligarchs put on for you, with enuf Drama to become believable. most accept this...

i don't.

i don't accept millions dying for nothing; i don't accept Trillions spent on Afghanistan for nothing; but most Sheep find this acceptable....

i don't

in the End, Russia will annex all of Ukraine and this has been decided by the Club of Rome before this ever started. so you have been had again and again.

but it looks real........at least sort of.

give Ukraine enfu weapons to hang themselves and call it a day.

well don't listen to me and i am absolutely sure you will not because you never do. but when it happens, you saw it coming all along. groan.


blessings all, enjoy your Oligarch world and Banker's wars. not me, this is to easy to see thru; try harder next time.


.
 
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ashurbanipal said:
I'm trying to follow your argument here and not having much luck. I sometimes see figures that there is around $7tn in money market accounts, and the idea is that that money will flow into the stock market if the fed cuts rates further. However, historically speaking, as a portion of GDP, the cash to securities ratio is lower than it has been on average, so it seems unlikely that all, or even a substantial portion, of that money will flow to stocks. Maybe some will. But then, the companies whose stocks are purchased will have more cash to spend, which in turn will drive inflation further. Doesn't seem like a workable strategy for most folks; the wealthy will profit immensely, but everyone else will struggle to buy bacon.

The short of that is that driving the economy into recession at the tail end of a long and pervasive inflation is not great for any but a few economic elites. So if that's what you're saying they're driving toward, sounds to me like you're saying what Trump's critics have been saying all along.


It seems to me, and to many others, that the real problem is that people at the top of the economic ladder keep making more and more, and everyone else less and less, as a portion of total GDP over any given interval, and no one is doing anything to fix that problem. Your proposed solution here will only further exacerbate income and wealth inequality.
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I think those who are doing well think a correction is when they do even better. Misallocation of assets means that assets aren’t being allocated enough to those who already have more than others. The whole thing is without a doubt about the rich getting richer and screw the little guy because the little guy never has enough assets to get richer anyway. It is elitist propaganda thinly disguised as some kind of noblesse oblige by claiming that helping the rich will of course help us all. The Republicans are the party of the rich and take advantage of the emotions of the poor who don’t seem to mind too
much about being poor as long as they get bread and circuses and lip service about their culture war fears. The Republicans cynical use of skin deep patriotism serves them well in the never needing quest to reward the rich and screw the poor. The poor will be asked to sacrifice for the greater good which means more for the rich. It is always cloaked in flag waving phony patriotism.
 
multivita-man said:
I don't believe that the administration is necessarily trying to cause a recession, but I do think it's possible that they are so committed to their economic and political agenda that they don't necessarily care if one happens, and they may be confident that we can climb out of it. Think Reagan's supply side economics in 1981, which contributed to a very deep recession in 1982-83. The obvious difference is that in 1981 we weren't that far removed from the 1970s stagflation. In 2025, while we have a serious debt problem and a moderate inflation problem, our economy right now is generally in better shape than it was when Reagan took his wrecking ball to FDR's New Deal.
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All of this is just cynical favoritism of the rich, who the Republicans sold out to a long time ago. They don’t care if the little guy suffers from any economic disasters caused by their policies cynically designed to reward the rich. They depend on their cynical rah rah patriotic propaganda to keep their power by keeping a certain amount of the lower classes supporting them. They look down on those supporters and cynically take advantage of their willingness to make sacrifices of all kinds. Did I say “cynical” enough? I don’t think so. Let ‘em rack up credit card debt. That was Reagan’s motto. But like the booze companies cynically say “please drink responsibly” he cynically warned about overusing the easy credit he unleashed. Please spend your easy credit responsibly. Yeah, sure that’ll prevent any problems.
 
ashurbanipal said:
Not in every case, but in many cases, yes they do, through two avenues. First, companies regularly either split stock or make secondary offerings and sell shares directly on whatever exchanges they've listed, in which case, the sale of those shares raises capital directly. Secondly, and more commonly, companies own a certain share of their stocks directly and can sell those without making a secondary offering. Anything that drives up the price of those shares leads to unrealized gains in their available capital--most usually, companies will simply seek loans against the value of those shares.


You'll have to define what you mean by "misallocation" before I can comment.


So the income/wealth gap can be cured by non-economic means? Seems obviously false, but I'll be interested to hear it if you can explain what you mean.
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Misallocation means assets going to those won’t have enough extra assets to make investments and get richer. They think the point of an economy is mainly to increase wealth, not to spread wealth for a more equitable society. How dare we waste assets on feeding and clothing ourselves.
 
Quag said:
www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Oil sells off as traders calmly look beyond the bombs in the Middle East

The price of oil tumbled Monday afternoon in an historical move as traders bet that Iran’s decision to bomb a U.S. base in Qatar signaled it was not planning to do the one thing that could really hurt America: Shut down the flow of oil by attacking crude shipments.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca
Or the opposite
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Russian oil is funding Russia. How does a price increase in one commodity they have work against Putin?
 
devildavid said:
I think those who are doing well think a correction is when they do even better. Misallocation of assets means that assets aren’t being allocated enough to those who already have more than others. The whole thing is without a doubt about the rich getting richer and screw the little guy because the little guy never has enough assets to get richer anyway. It is elitist propaganda thinly disguised as some kind of noblesse oblige by claiming that helping the rich will of course help us all. The Republicans are the party of the rich and take advantage of the emotions of the poor who don’t seem to mind too
much about being poor as long as they get bread and circuses and lip service about their culture war fears. The Republicans cynical use of skin deep patriotism serves them well in the never needing quest to reward the rich and screw the poor. The poor will be asked to sacrifice for the greater good which means more for the rich. It is always cloaked in flag waving phony patriotism.
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Yes, I think that's exactly correct. In rich-speak, resources are misallocated when they're disposed in such a way that they primarily benefit someone else or society at large.
 
j brown's body said:
"Traders are starting to price in the possibility that the U.S. economy might fall into a recession — and one Wall Street veteran says that might actually be the Trump administration’s plan.

Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura dubbed Wall Street’s most wired analyst by the Financial Times for his manic missives focused on the options market, laid out the argument in a note to clients.

He said President Donald Trump and his administration need an engineered recession to cause a growth slowdown and disinflation that will translate into Fed rate cuts and a meaningfully weaker U.S. dollar for the next phase of his economic agenda.

In another note to clients on Wednesday morning, McElligott cited remarks made by Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent on a focus on small business and consumers that will require a “rebalance,” as Trump in front of Congress on Tuesday night spoke of being “okay” with a little disturbance from tariffs.

The idea is that Fed rate cuts and supply-side stimulus from tax cuts and deregulation will then be able to build up the economy without the need for government spending."

Link

This is a good, simple explanation of what Trump is trying to do. It's a pretty tall order and I'm not sure that what works on paper will happen in the real world. And indeed, there are many critics of this idea. These are weeds I'm not eager to wade into.
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Makes sense.
 
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