Is Autocracy Our Destiny? Part 1

[richmondc7]

During the American Revolution, in 1778 Washington and his half-frozen troops were wintering Valley Forge. A group of George Washington's officers put on a play that was very popular in colonial America. It tells the story of the end of the Roman Republic, a democracy in its time which was destroyed by the dictator Julius Caesar. Washington and the founders were aware that the end of democracy would be at the hands of an autocrat. They knew then, as we do today, that when Democracy dies its murderer will be an autocrat.

The good news is that humanity has been down the dark road to autocracy before. During WWII in the east we defeated the German autocrat, and, in the west, we defeated the Japanese autocrat. Over 400,000 American soldiers died and almost 700,000 were wounded.

Autocracies do not share any ideology. What they do share is the Strong Man Cult. Given that we have so many examples of past and present Autocrats, perhaps we can identify the steps autocrats use kill democracy and to gain and maintain power. Today, the majority of the world’s population is ruled by an autocrat, 83 nations to be exact. Some have no elections and the rest use “show” elections.

Steps from Democracy to Autocracy

Step 1 Lose faith in democracy

The question is “how do democracies decompose into autocracies?” While there are different drivers in different countries, there are key indicators that the move toward autocracy is accelerating.

First is the perception that those elected to represent us do not know nor do they care what their electorate wants. For a frame of reference, Pew Research conducted a worldwide survey of citizens living in democracies. They asked this exact question. 3 countries stand out as the most disbelieving in their representation. Spain was the leader at 85% of those surveyed feel ignored by those they elect. Tied for 2nd are the USA and Argentina with 83% saying their representatives don’t know or care about their them.

This Pew Survey found that in America 23% of Americans believe our system of government is somewhat to very bad with 50% saying is somewhat good.

Next is the perception that at least one party represents my views. 52% of those self-identifying as on the “left,” 40% of those self-identifying as centrists and 60% of those on the right feel one party represents their views.

As of 2023, 66% of Americans do not like the way American democracy is working.

Step 2 Creation of an alternate reality – Cloaked in “Patriotism”

The creation of an alternate reality is a key step for an autocrat. Technology and instant communication are power tools in the establishment of an alternate reality ecosystem. In this process, the autocrat makes purposeful statements that are factually untrue, but his ecosystem participants must accept it as true to maintain their status and access to power. The enemy are those who “fact check” or publicly reject what is patently untrue.

This replacement of reality with the “autocrat’s reality” bonds the autocrat’s followers even tighter. When an “outsider” attempts to demonstrate the falsity of the autocrat, the response is always denial and attack. All their algorithmic driven feeds only reinforce the “new” reality. This top-down alt-reality engine is at the heart of a modern autocrat. A cult is a group requiring unwavering devotion to a set of beliefs which are considered deviant and outside the norms of society. They are delivered by a charismatic and self-appointed leader who tightly controls its members. True believers become zealots ready to attack anything or anyone opposing the leader’s words.

For instance, Trump claims “This is the worst economy in history.” It now becomes an act of faith within the cult. By all standards of measurement, the economy has reached new highs across a vast array of financial measurements. Some prices are too high but, like interest rates, they are coming down. Statistics and data are anathema to cultists.

Schools are doing forced gender transition surgery. “Can you imagine you’re a parent, and your son leaves the house and you say ‘Jimmy, I love you so much. Go have a good day in school.’ And your son comes back with a brutal operation,” Trump said. “Can you even imagine this?” Now Trump cultists must accept this as our truth.

Rewriting history is a core skill set of autocrats. “Jan6th were just peaceful tourists incited to violence by the FBI and ANTIFA actors.”

"Immigrants are eating our pets!"

“The Jan 6th committee destroyed all their evidence”

https://www.govinfo.gov/collection/january-6th-committee-final-report?path=/GPO/January 6th Committee Final Report and Supporting Materials Collection

 

[bomberfox]

Bourgeois ruled democracies tend towards autocracies, corporations themselves are mini autocracies. The confusing part of this is it doesnt mirror the reaction to an actual threat of a worker’s revolution.since the 80s the left was dealt a blow to it that it has never recovered from. We are in the “when you are so accustomed to privilege, equality seems like oppression” stage. This ruling class has gotten so fat and so expecting to get what they want, even the tiniest resistence is met with overwhelming force.


The losing faith in democracy has been well a long time coming and the system itself is partly to blame:

 

[lwf]

It is a danger but I don't think it's inevitable. The U.S. has several things going for it: The Constitution is not easily cast aside, and we are capable of replacing our leaders every 4 years without bloodshed, and required to do so a maximum of every 8 years. Add to that the proliferation of firearms among the populace that any would-be autocrat would need to contend with. In spite of the occasional chaos this type of government causes when leaders are swapped out that frequently, it's a damn site better than the alternative that countries like North Korea, Russia, and China forced to endure. They are also prone to chaos when they get a bad leader, and when that happens it tends to last a hell of a lot longer than our periods of chaos.

 

[reinaert]

Republics, as Machiavelli noted five centuries ago, can crush oligarchy by spending down oligarchs' wealth. So, no, not inevitable. Likely, but not unavoidable.

 

[TomFitz]

It is a danger but I don't think it's inevitable. The U.S. has several things going for it: The Constitution is not easily cast aside, and we are capable of replacing our leaders every 4 years without bloodshed, and required to do so a maximum of every 8 years. Add to that the proliferation of firearms among the populace that any would-be autocrat would need to contend with. In spite of the occasional chaos this type of government causes when leaders are swapped out that frequently, it's a damn site better than the alternative that countries like North Korea, Russia, and China forced to endure. They are also prone to chaos when they get a bad leader, and when that happens it tends to last a hell of a lot longer than our periods of chaos.

at least that was the case until Donald Trump came along.

He led the parade in questioning democracy and the Constitution (saying he would “suspend” parts of it.

His plans, and those of his fellow travelers at the Heritage Foundation, envisioned a kleptocracy run by, and totally beholden to one man. Politicizing the entire civil service from the DoJ to the National Park Service.

Of course, Trump openly dreamed of ruling forever.

 

[maxparrish]

During the American Revolution, in 1778 Washington and his half-frozen troops were wintering Valley Forge. A group of George Washington's officers put on a play that was very popular in colonial America. It tells the story of the end of the Roman Republic, a democracy in its time which was destroyed by the dictator Julius Caesar. Washington and the founders were aware that the end of democracy would be at the hands of an autocrat. They knew then, as we do today, that when Democracy dies its murderer will be an autocrat.

The good news is that humanity has been down the dark road to autocracy before. During WWII in the east we defeated the German autocrat, and, in the west, we defeated the Japanese autocrat. Over 400,000 American soldiers died and almost 700,000 were wounded.

Autocracies do not share any ideology. What they do share is the Strong Man Cult. Given that we have so many examples of past and present Autocrats, perhaps we can identify the steps autocrats use kill democracy and to gain and maintain power. Today, the majority of the world’s population is ruled by an autocrat, 83 nations to be exact. Some have no elections and the rest use “show” elections.

Steps from Democracy to Autocracy

Step 1 Lose faith in democracy

The question is “how do democracies decompose into autocracies?” While there are different drivers in different countries, there are key indicators that the move toward autocracy is accelerating.

First is the perception that those elected to represent us do not know nor do they care what their electorate wants. For a frame of reference, Pew Research conducted a worldwide survey of citizens living in democracies. They asked this exact question. 3 countries stand out as the most disbelieving in their representation. Spain was the leader at 85% of those surveyed feel ignored by those they elect. Tied for 2nd are the USA and Argentina with 83% saying their representatives don’t know or care about their them.

This Pew Survey found that in America 23% of Americans believe our system of government is somewhat to very bad with 50% saying is somewhat good.

Next is the perception that at least one party represents my views. 52% of those self-identifying as on the “left,” 40% of those self-identifying as centrists and 60% of those on the right feel one party represents their views.
...

Alas, like most, your outlook is short sighted, too narrowly focused on the present and transitory politics, as it they were the engine of history. I suggest the readers back off to see the whole of history and civilization for it they do there is one undeniable reality - all Democracy is fleeting, a historical anamoly that appears briefly as an exception to the normal rule of society by dictators, monarchies, emperors, religious authority, and tribes.

The arc of the last few hundred years has, for all its exceptionalism, been nothing compared to the recorded history of the last 5000 or more years. Empires and civilizatons have come and gone, only a few having dabbled in semi democratic norms. Ancient China, India, Egypt, the civilizations of the Americas, etc. did not so much as taste a drop of this "democracy" and the few that did (Republican Rome, and Greek City States) did not last ... autocratic forms dominating most of their history as well.

Two centuries of some mostly western European and British Commonwealth experiments with Democratic forms (mixed with horrific autocratic driven wars and civil wars) has not been the experience of the majority of humanity, even today.

In time and space, democracy occupies a very small cornor of human experience. And it too will die, perhaps sooner than we think.

 

[richmondc7]

It is a danger but I don't think it's inevitable. The U.S. has several things going for it: The Constitution is not easily cast aside, and we are capable of replacing our leaders every 4 years without bloodshed, and required to do so a maximum of every 8 years. Add to that the proliferation of firearms among the populace that any would-be autocrat would need to contend with. In spite of the occasional chaos this type of government causes when leaders are swapped out that frequently, it's a damn site better than the alternative that countries like North Korea, Russia, and China forced to endure. They are also prone to chaos when they get a bad leader, and when that happens it tends to last a hell of a lot longer than our periods of chaos.

Correction. The last time they tried to overthrow the Constitution 5 people died.

 

[lwf]

Correction. The last time they tried to overthrow the Constitution 5 people died.

We are capable of changing leaders without bloodshed. Unfortunately, on rare occasions we fail at this.

 

[iguanaman]

In time and space, democracy occupies a very small cornor of human experience. And it too will die, perhaps sooner than we think.

Not on our watch, Bub. The coup will fail, the rule of law will prevail and the Maggots will have to crawl back into their holes where they belong. Putin will be driven out of Ukraine also.

 

[lwf]

Alas, like most, your outlook is short sighted, too narrowly focused on the present and transitory politics, as it they were the engine of history. I suggest the readers back off to see the whole of history and civilization for it they do there is one undeniable reality - all Democracy is fleeting, a historical anamoly that appears briefly as an exception to the normal rule of society by dictators, monarchies, emperors, religious authority, and tribes.

The arc of the last few hundred years has, for all its exceptionalism, been nothing compared to the recorded history of the last 5000 or more years. Empires and civilizatons have come and gone, only a few having dabbled in semi democratic norms. Ancient China, India, Egypt, the civilizations of the Americas, etc. did not so much as taste a drop of this "democracy" and the few that did (Republican Rome, and Greek City States) did not last ... autocratic forms dominating most of their history as well.

Two centuries of some mostly western European and British Commonwealth experiments with Democratic forms (mixed with horrific autocratic driven wars and civil wars) has not been the experience of the majority of humanity, even today.

In time and space, democracy occupies a very small cornor of human experience. And it too will die, perhaps sooner than we think.

This is an inductive error. Humans have for 99% of their history been hunter gatherers. Do you interpret this to mean that agriculture will die? Perhaps sooner than we think?

 

[maxparrish]

This is an inductive error. Humans have for 99% of their history been hunter gatherers. Do you interpret this to mean that agriculture will die? Perhaps sooner than we think?

I would if agriculture had the sorry record of failure of democracy since the dawn of civilization. Agriculture, of course, is a product for fortunate mutations in grains and non-democratic civilizations that organized them through mass irrigation.

Of all organized human social systems, democracy has already proven itself to be the most fragile. Why deny it?

 

[maxparrish]

Not on our watch, Bub. The coup will fail, the rule of law will prevail and the Maggots will have to crawl back into their holes where they belong. Putin will be driven out of Ukraine also.

Your assumption is that the only threat to democratic rule is from the far right. To the contrary, at this point I see few defenders in either party for the traditional liberties and democratic processes we once found sacrosanct.

 

[lwf]

I would if agriculture had the sorry record of failure of democracy since the dawn of civilization. Agriculture, of course, is a product for fortunate mutations in grains and non-democratic civilizations that organized them through mass irrigation.

Of all organized human social systems, democracy has already proven itself to be the most fragile. Why deny it?

I'm sure the same thing was said of the first failed farms. Democracy has spread since its first inception. That individual democratic governments fail is not proof that Democracy as a system will die. Far more autocracies have died than democracies, yes?

 

[Helix]

Let's hope not.

 

[richmondc7]

There are lots of reasons for hope. We are a society comprised of many who have fled autocrats. Our ability to quickly inform, and hopefully inspire is easier, faster and more universal than ever.

Elizabeth Willing Powel's question about whether the United States was a republic or a monarchy during the Constitutional Convention in 1787. “A republic, if you can keep it,” Franklin said this in response

“Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch.” This quote is often attributed to Franklin, but the actual author is unknown.

“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic,” Franklin said this about the dangers of democracy.

Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety: Franklin said this about the importance of liberty.

“Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God,” Franklin said this about government.

 

[Variant]

Autocracy would be very difficult to accomplish. A lot of Americans are downright ungovernable when we do have a say in what is going on.