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Individual market insurers requesting largest premium increases in more than 5 years

W_Heisenberg

Trade Representative of Heard and McDonald Islands
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Individual market insurers requesting largest premium increases in more than 5 years - Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

Early indications are that individual market insurers will be increasing premiums in 2026 by more than they have since 2018, the last time policy uncertainty contributed to sharp premium increases. Across 105 ACA Marketplace insurers in 20 markets (19 states and the District of Columbia)...
www.healthsystemtracker.org

—

Insurers are hiking ACA premiums by a median of 15% next year, based on early reports. ACA enrollees will see their out-of-pocket premiums skyrocket by an average of over 75% if enhanced premium tax credits are allowed to expire at the end of this year.

—

Trump did that!
 
Yep, if the increased federal PPACA subsides are allowed to expire (sunset?) then PPACA premiums (often called out-of-pocket expenses) will increase.


*above quote is from Google’s AI Overview*
 
W_Heisenberg said:
Trump did that!
Click to expand...

No, he didn't.


All Obamacare did was to subsidize demand. It did nothing to reduce healthcare costs, if fact, it made the situation even worse:

Thread 'How government ruined the US healthcare market. Part 3: the 80/20 rule'

"Everything government touches turns to shit." – Ancient proverb

First, let’s remember that the primary problem with the U.S. healthcare system is the outrageous prices charged by healthcare providers. The U.S. healthcare industry operates under the "regulated capitalism" model, which means it is riddled with monopolies, oligopolies, and labor cartels - all of which are enforced by the filthy government. Thanks to these restrictions on competition and supply, healthcare in the U.S. is absurdly expensive.

In this post, I want to address a particularly stupid piece of government...
 
Not to worry. Trump has a big, beautiful healthcare plan that replace the disasterous ACA. He's going to unveil it in two weeks. How do I know this? Because Trump said so - in 2020.
 
Bok Tuklo said:
Who was President in 2018?
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It's like clockwork. Trump takes office, makes decisions intended to jack up premiums, insurers prepare to jack up premiums.

Stealers Wheel said:
Not to worry. Trump has a big, beautiful healthcare plan that replace the disasterous ACA. He's going to unveil it in two weeks. How do I know this? Because Trump said so - in 2020.
Click to expand...

Don't hear much about repeal-and-replace anymore!
 
Greenbeard said:
False, excess health care cost growth disappeared after the ACA passed.
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Post a chart showing that.

Healthcare costs per capita went up after the ACA:



Healthcare costs compared to consumer prices:



Can you look at that chart and tell when Obamacare went into effect? Nope.

Healthcare costs went up as a share of gdp:



Obamacare didn't do shit regarding the price of healthcare. If you disagree, post a chart, not some blog article. If you can't, then stop spreading propaganda.
 
aociswundumho said:
Post a chart showing that.

Healthcare costs per capita went up after the ACA:

View attachment 67580766
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Why are you using *projected* data from 2010 onward? It's 2025.

aociswundumho said:
Healthcare costs compared to consumer prices:

View attachment 67580767

Can you look at that chart and tell when Obamacare went into effect? Nope.
Click to expand...
It went into effect in 2014.

The blue line was roughly at 40 when Obamacare started (as a percentage increase over the baseline date), and is now at 86.1, representing a 32% increase. (That's 186.1/140 for those who want to make the math deliberately confusing with weird baselines and chart axes.)
The green line was roughly at 70 when Obamacare started and is now at 121.3, representing a 30% increase. (221.3/170)

Health care costs are basically on track with, or slightly slower than, overall inflation since Obamacare started. The divergence happened BEFORE then.

aociswundumho said:
Healthcare costs went up as a share of gdp:

View attachment 67580768

Obamacare didn't do shit regarding the price of healthcare. If you disagree, post a chart, not some blog article. If you can't, then stop spreading propaganda.
Click to expand...
That's because old people are a larger percentage of the population than in previous decades, not because health care has gotten exhorbitantly more expensive since 2014.
 
Gatsby said:
That's because old people are a larger percentage of the population than in previous decades, not because health care has gotten exhorbitantly more expensive since 2014.
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The claim is that obamacare reduced healthcare prices. If that's what you believe, then walk me through the mechanism.
 
aociswundumho said:
The claim is that obamacare reduced healthcare prices.
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??
aociswundumho said:
If that's what you believe, then walk me through the mechanism.
Click to expand...
Your charts show that health care costs were outpacing overall inflation, and that stopped by 2014 when Obamacare went into effect. Since then they have been about the same, or slightly slower, than overall inflation.

The reason health care costs have continued to grow are: 1) Inflation in general, and 2) Demographic aging. Not because health care has been a particularly inflationary sector of the economy.
 
aociswundumho said:
Which chart are you referring to?
Click to expand...
Your second one.

 
Gatsby said:
It went into effect in 2014.
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No, it was signed into law in 2010. For example, the requirement for insurance companies to allow adult children to remain on their parent's health insurance until age 26 started in 2010.


All of it is indexed to a baseline of 0% in 2000. So when the green line hits 70 in 2014, it means medical prices were 70% higher than in 2000 at that point, correct? So when it hits 121.3 in 2024, prices are 121.3% higher than in 2000, right?

So the increase from 2014 to 2024 is not 121.3/170 = 30% because your math assumes the 2014 level (70%) is a “base” of 170. You would have to use the difference between the 2014 and 2024 numbers. so you start with 70 and end with 121.3. The change is therefore 51.3. Then we have to calculate the percentage increase from 70, which would be 51.3/ 70 times 100 equals a 73.3% increase. This could be wrong, I'm not a math nerd.


Gatsby said:
Health care costs are basically on track with, or slightly slower than, overall inflation since Obamacare started. The divergence happened BEFORE then.
Click to expand...

Even post 2014, the gap between medical prices and general inflation has grown, just at a slower pace. That still means medical prices are outpacing overall prices, which is exactly what the chart title says.

I'll concede that maybe ACA slightly slowed the rate of growth - but BFD. Obamacare didn't do anything about monopoly pricing by hospitals, nor did it expand supply of doctors and nurses. It didn't even open up insurance across state lines or increase price transparency in any meaningful way.
 
aociswundumho said:
No, it was signed into law in 2010. For example, the requirement for insurance companies to allow adult children to remain on their parent's health insurance until age 26 started in 2010.
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The important parts of the law didn't go into effect until 2014. Unless you're suggesting that small policy changes like that contributed to outsized inflation.
aociswundumho said:
All of it is indexed to a baseline of 0% in 2000. So when the green line hits 70 in 2014, it means medical prices were 70% higher than in 2000 at that point, correct? So when it hits 121.3 in 2024, prices are 121.3% higher than in 2000, right?
Click to expand...
Correct.
Assume the cost of health care is $100 in 2000. So it's $170 in 2014 and $221.3 in 2024.
221.3/170 = 30.2% increase over the relevant time frame, for health care.

Assume the overall CPI is $100 in 2000. So it's $140 in 2014 and $186.1 in 2024.
186.1/140 = 32.9% increase over the relevant time frame, for overall CPI.

aociswundumho said:
Even post 2014, the gap between medical prices and general inflation has grown, just at a slower pace. That still means medical prices are outpacing overall prices, which is exactly what the chart title says.
Click to expand...
It hasn't. Health care costs have increased slightly less than overall CPI, which means that it's cheaper to buy health care relative to other stuff than it was in 2014.
aociswundumho said:
I'll concede that maybe ACA slightly slowed the rate of growth - but BFD. Obamacare didn't do anything about monopoly pricing by hospitals, nor did it expand supply of doctors and nurses.
Click to expand...
I'm all for having Medicare/Medicaid negotiate prices instead of letting hospitals become monopolies.
I'm all for expanding the supply of doctors and nurses. Let's do that too. We should do occupational licensing reform, increase the number of available spots in medical schools, and increase immigration for health care professionals.
 
aociswundumho said:
Post a chart showing that.
Click to expand...

Through 2021:



Unprecedented to have zero relative cost growth over such an extended period of time. Official data now goes through 2023 and it remained pretty close to zero.

Healthcare costs per capita went up after the ACA:

View attachment 67580766
Click to expand...

Nominal spending numbers always go up. TVs don't cost more today than they did in 1950 simply because the nominal price is higher.

The cost of health care grew over the last century because nominal health spending grew faster than nominal incomes. That stopped when the ACA passed.

1960​
1970​
1980​
1990​
2000​
2010​
2023​
Per capita health spending (A)
$146​
$353​
$1,099​
$2,835​
$4,845​
$8,382​
$14,570​
Per capita personal income (B)
$2,336​
$4,218​
$10,206​
$19,639​
$30,528​
$40,525​
$69,413​
A / B
6%​
8%​
11%​
14%​
16%​
21%​
21%​

Health care cost the same thing on a per capita basis in 2023 as it did in 2010: 21% of per capita income. That's never happened before over any decade-plus period of time.

Healthcare costs compared to consumer prices:

View attachment 67580767
Click to expand...

The ACA wasn't around in 2000.

CPI Medical today is at 155.2% of its March 2010 value, CPI All Items is at 147.9%.

The reason starting the clock earlier makes the divergence look more stark is that health care price growth used to substantially (not slightly) exceed overall price growth. Before the ACA.

Healthcare costs went up as a share of gdp:

View attachment 67580768
Click to expand...

Not really, no. Health spending was 17.2% of GDP in 2010, it was 17.6% of GDP in 2023. Prior to the ACA, health care grew by multiple points of GDP each decade. Huge and unprecedented slowdown in spending growth to just about zero.
 
Gatsby said:
Why are you using *projected* data from 2010 onward? It's 2025.
Click to expand...
Perhaps he's using projected numbers to emphasize that actual health spending in 2023 was a much lower percentage of GDP than projected a few years earlier, due to the halt in health spending growth. His whole bit may be satire.
 
 
No. The ACA gave them the option to request price hikes every year. That is one of many reasons the insurers were all in on the legislation. And they absolutely loved the captive customer base.
 
MAGAnificent said:
No. The ACA gave them the option to request price hikes every year. That is one of many reasons the insurers were all in on the legislation. And they absolutely loved the captive customer base.
Click to expand...
The ACA did not "give" insurers to the option to price their products. The concept of prices existed prior to the ACA.
 
Greenbeard said:
The ACA did not "give" insurers to the option to price their products. The concept of prices existed prior to the ACA.
Click to expand...

True, but the issue of 2026 PPACA premium increases has little to do with insurers.


*above quote is from Google’s AI Overview.*
 
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