How many states will Trump win in 2020? Part 2

[zimmer]

The first thread was made 2-years and 21-days ago.
First thread: https://www.debatepolitics.com/polls/308314-many-states-trump-win-2020-a-2.html?highlight=2020

Now we have more information... and it looks like Bernie is going to win the nomination.

So... how many states will Trump win in the general election should Sanders win the D nomination?

I said 42 in the last poll against a generic D... I think 48 against Bernie.

And you?

 

[Dittohead not!]

The first thread was made 2-years and 21-days ago.
First thread: https://www.debatepolitics.com/polls/308314-many-states-trump-win-2020-a-2.html?highlight=2020

Now we have more information... and it looks like Bernie is going to win the nomination.

So... how many states will Trump win in the general election should Sanders win the D nomination?

I said 42 in the last poll against a generic D... I think 48 against Bernie.

And you?

What will the local weather be on election day in November?

Some things just can't be predicted this far in advance. Trump might win. Trump might lose. Sanders might be the nominee, and he might not.

One thing that can be predicted: Economic conditions are cyclical. Eventually, there will be an economic downturn. If it occurs during the Trump presidency, whether first or second term, then the Trumpers will blame the Democrats, but most of the voters won't buy it. If it happens during the first term of the next Democratic president, then people will buy the idea that the downturn was because of the new president and will vote him/her out in the next election. That sort of thing is as easy to predict as saying that the weather in November will be cooler than it was in August, at least in the northern hemisphere.

I'll stick to predicting the predictable.

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

I don't think he will do as well. I hope so if Bernie is the other choice. Of course it still depends on who he runs against. If they are a strong leader and stay focused on what they will do for us Trump will have a tough battle. If they run on a policy of hate and their only goal is to remove Trump then I think they will push a lot of people towards Trump. Most of the people in this country are good people and hate is not a great campaign strategy to win the hearts and minds of good people. Trump won because he told the people what he was going to do and has tried to do exactly that. A very rare thing among todays leaders. Will the people continue to support a leader who will not give up and will continue to try and accomplish their promises or will they support the resistance and the party of hate. That is what it may come down to and in that scenario Trump wins again. It depends more on the campaign by the democrats because we already know where Trump stands. He will continue to fight to accomplish what he promised the people that elected him.

 

[AtlantaAdonis]

Bernie makes every state either red or purple except Vermont and California. But hey, at least we'll avoid a woman president, right Bernie Bros?

 

[Phys251]

The first thread was made 2-years and 21-days ago.
First thread: https://www.debatepolitics.com/polls/308314-many-states-trump-win-2020-a-2.html?highlight=2020

Now we have more information... and it looks like Bernie is going to win the nomination.

So... how many states will Trump win in the general election should Sanders win the D nomination?

I said 42 in the last poll against a generic D... I think 48 against Bernie.

And you?

As Dittohead not said, it depends on a lot of things. Too soon to tell.

BTW it is nice to see you make a sensible, decent OP. More of that, please. :thumbs:

 

[Cardinal]

24. Of course this is before we have a Democratic nominee so my prediction is based on hilariously premature data.

 

[zimmer]

What will the local weather be on election day in November?

Some things just can't be predicted this far in advance. Trump might win. Trump might lose. Sanders might be the nominee, and he might not.

One thing that can be predicted: Economic conditions are cyclical. Eventually, there will be an economic downturn. If it occurs during the Trump presidency, whether first or second term, then the Trumpers will blame the Democrats, but most of the voters won't buy it. If it happens during the first term of the next Democratic president, then people will buy the idea that the downturn was because of the new president and will vote him/her out in the next election. That sort of thing is as easy to predict as saying that the weather in November will be cooler than it was in August, at least in the northern hemisphere.

I'll stick to predicting the predictable.

The Media tries to predict all the time... there’s nothing wrong with predictions... most are wrong, but what harm is there giving it a shot?

Put you logic to test. Much is known now... so... give it a shot.

 

[zimmer]

24. Of course this is before we have a Democratic nominee so my prediction is based on hilariously premature data.

Note the wording in the OP?

Don’t be fearful... give it an honest try... put your logic machine to the test.

PS. It looks like Bernie is gonna burn this bitch down.

 

[Cardinal]

Note the wording in the OP?

Don’t be fearful... give it an honest try... put your logic machine to the test.

PS. It looks like Bernie is gonna burn this bitch down.

I'm basing my answer on present day polling data for Sanders versus Trump. Nobody has any idea what will happen exactly if he becomes the nominee. His support in swing states might go up; it might go down; it might stay the same. I don't know which of these will happen, and neither do you. But based on present day data, Trump will win about 24 states, maybe 26.

 

[zimmer]

I don't think he will do as well. I hope so if Bernie is the other choice. Of course it still depends on who he runs against. If they are a strong leader and stay focused on what they will do for us Trump will have a tough battle. If they run on a policy of hate and their only goal is to remove Trump then I think they will push a lot of people towards Trump. Most of the people in this country are good people and hate is not a great campaign strategy to win the hearts and minds of good people. Trump won because he told the people what he was going to do and has tried to do exactly that. A very rare thing among todays leaders. Will the people continue to support a leader who will not give up and will continue to try and accomplish their promises or will they support the resistance and the party of hate. That is what it may come down to and in that scenario Trump wins again. It depends more on the campaign by the democrats because we already know where Trump stands. He will continue to fight to accomplish what he promised the people that elected him.

Hate has been the driving force behind the D’s since before Trump won.

Why change now... they have less positive to campaign on than in 2016.

They can only try to slash and burn... but Trump... has had extreme vetting... they’ve shot, lobbed mortars, aerial bombing missions... and it’s done virtually nothing. In fact... it’s made him stronger.

Dems are out of ammo.

 

[zimmer]

I'm basing my answer on present day polling data for Sanders versus Trump. Nobody has any idea what will happen exactly if he becomes the nominee. His support in swing states might go up; it might go down; it might stay the same. I don't know which of these will happen, and neither do you. But based on present day, Trump will win about 24 states, maybe 26.

Democrats are freaking out. Pundits, media, and the party.

They know it’s going to be a blowout... with serious down-ticket consequences.

Down-ballot Democrats move to distance themselves from Sanders | The Seattle Times

 

[Cardinal]

Democrats are freaking out. Pundits, media, and the party.

They know it’s going to be a blowout... with serious down-ticket consequences.

Down-ballot Democrats move to distance themselves from Sanders | The Seattle Times

Good for them. I gave my answer.

 

[zimmer]

Good for them. I gave my answer.

And a very optimistic one considering the economy and all the promises he kept.

 

[Cardinal]

And a very optimistic one

Maybe. We'll see.

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

Hate has been the driving force behind the D’s since before Trump won.

Why change now... they have less positive to campaign on than in 2016.

They can only try to slash and burn... but Trump... has had extreme vetting... they’ve shot, lobbed mortars, aerial bombing missions... and it’s done virtually nothing. In fact... it’s made him stronger.

Dems are out of ammo.

It maybe true but it does not help anyone from either party. I want and expect the parties to disagree on how to solve problems. I also expect them to work together to solve the problems by both parties giving and taking. These witch hunts and hate campaigns of utter resistance are not solving the dire problems affecting the vast majority of Americans. Plus Trump needs to do a better job of asking their opinions and listening to their arguments. This nonsense of mob rule by one party or the other taking control and pushing through their agenda despite what the other party wants needs to end. We may need to require at least some members of each party to pass bills. Any bills pushed through because one party controls congress and the presidency is mob rule plain and simple.

 

[Dittohead not!]

The Media tries to predict all the time... there’s nothing wrong with predictions... most are wrong, but what harm is there giving it a shot?

Put you logic to test. Much is known now... so... give it a shot.

OK, then. I predict the election will be very close, but that Trump will win a second term. Then, he'll rant and hoot about a landslide.

and that prediction, of course, is based solely on wild speculation.

 

[zimmer]

It maybe true but it does not help anyone from either party. I want and expect the parties to disagree on how to solve problems. I also expect them to work together to solve the problems by both parties giving and taking. These witch hunts and hate campaigns of utter resistance are not solving the dire problems affecting the vast majority of Americans. Plus Trump needs to do a better job of asking their opinions and listening to their arguments. This nonsense of mob rule by one party or the other taking control and pushing through their agenda despite what the other party wants needs to end. We may need to require at least some members of each party to pass bills. Any bills pushed through because one party controls congress and the presidency is mob rule plain and simple.

Trump has been the subject of dirty tricks by the Left and their Goebbels Media. It’s been non-stop for almost 4-years... yet he has fulfilled a lot of promises.

The goal is to crush the Left to a point they are feeble and realize they have to change. This only happens with total destruction of their party at the ballot box. They learned nothing from 2016. Perhaps another shellacking of that type will make them a little wiser.

I predicted 42-states 2-years ago...

If Sanders wins... it’ll be 48-states for Trump. NY and CA may go Sanders.

 

[Dittohead not!]

Trump has been the subject of dirty tricks by the Left and their Goebbels Media. It’s been non-stop for almost 4-years... yet he has fulfilled a lot of promises.

The goal is to crush the Left to a point they are feeble and realize they have to change. This only happens with total destruction of their party at the ballot box. They learned nothing from 2016. Perhaps another shellacking of that type will make them a little wiser.

I predicted 42-states 2-years ago...

If Sanders wins... it’ll be 48-states for Trump. NY and CA may go Sanders.

How dare the Left's Goebbels Media quote Trump accurately and report on the things he actually says and does! How disloyal! Heil Trump!

 

[zimmer]

How dare the Left's Goebbels Media quote Trump accurately and report on the things he actually says and does! How disloyal! Heil Trump!

Oh yes... they’ve been reporting the news in an unbiased manner... ROTFLOL... Such a silly post... funny even.

 

[Dittohead not!]

Oh yes... they’ve been reporting the news in an unbiased manner... ROTFLOL... Such a silly post... funny even.

Exactly. Reporting what Trump actually says and does clearly shows bias. They're supposed to report on what he should have said and done instead.

 

[JMaximus]

Maybe others have pointed this out, but the number of states doesn't matter - the number of electoral votes is what decides the winner.

 

[zimmer]

Maybe others have pointed this out, but the number of states doesn't matter - the number of electoral votes is what decides the winner.

True, but it’s a good measure of how big the landslide will be.

We talk about Reagan’s 49-State landslide... don’t we?

 

[uptower]

As Dittohead not said, it depends on a lot of things. Too soon to tell.

BTW it is nice to see you make a sensible, decent OP. More of that, please. :thumbs:

Yes, it is too early to tell how many exactly but I believe there's a ceiling. He won't get a single state more than last time. That's his maximum. Which means he could still win. But if he loses a handful...

 

[slick]

True, but it’s a good measure of how big the landslide will be.

We talk about Reagan’s 49-State landslide... don’t we?

I'll be content if he wins the 30 1/2 states he won last time. Reagan nor Nixon could win California if they were
to run in this environment. I predict 26 to 30 or 31 to 35. Right now Trump is the favorite to win, lets hope
he does but it won't be a landslide 40 or more state event! Mass., Hawaii, Connecticut, RI, Washington, NY, NJ &
Illinois are virtual impossibilities.

'The left’s electoral calculation is, of course, as follows: As the country turns majority brown and black,
the Democratic Party will be electorally invincible because, you know, they have minority voters in the
bag. Per their calculation, brown native-born and foreign-born citizens especially will forever vote for
Democrats because they represent the good party that looks out for minority voters, while the GOP
is the evil, racist, white nationalist party.'

The saying goes, ‘If you’re going to kill the king you better not miss.’ This was never more accurate than today.
Not only has Trump obstructed the coup d'etat, he destroyed it.

Think of the alternate timeline in which the wench Hillary won. Trump winning was truly a hail mary moment for this country.

At every major intersection since Donald Trump announced his candidacy, the Democrats chose the absolute wrong option.
They push the coup. They push racism. They push illegal immigration. They push higher taxes… and on and on and on

 

[Phys251]

Yes, it is too early to tell how many exactly but I believe there's a ceiling. He won't get a single state more than last time. That's his maximum. Which means he could still win. But if he loses a handful...

He barely lost Minnesota. If we run on destroying private health insurance, he'll pick up all the states he won in 2016 plus MN. Maybe VA and even Colorado.