How likely is it that Russia will use the American bombing of Iran as an excuse to explode a tactical nuke in Ukraine?

[craig]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

 

[EthanB]

He could, but using any type of nuke would take their war to a level that nobody wants to go to.

 

[ColdHardTruth]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

I doubt it.

 

[Allan]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

Putin was warned (by Biden using back channels) that using a nuke in Ukraine would result in NATO ground forces in that country.

Not sure what Trump's position would be.

 

[Juin]

Putin was warned (by Biden using back channels) that using a nuke in Ukraine would result in NATO ground forces in that country.

Not sure what Trump's position would be.

Makes no sense. Why would Nato send in ground forces after a country has been contaminated?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

Bullies use all sorts of bullshit as post-hoc rationalizations for what they were going to do anyway.

It is impractical, unpragmatic, and un-practicable to cater to bullies out of fear of what they might rationalize.

Same goes for Trump.

 

[Roadvirus]

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China would drop Russia like a bad habit (which would be both militarily & economically bad for Russia, since China is the only richest nation still doing semi-regular trading with them) & NATO would rightfully consider it a threat and end this war once and for all.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

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China would drop Russia like a bad habit (which would be both militarily & economically bad for Russia, since China is the only richest nation still doing semi-regular trading with them) & NATO would rightfully consider it a threat and end this war once and for all.

My understanding is that since Russia lost its shirt for the Ukraine war, China has been their sugar daddy.

China's economy is much, much larger and more robust than Russia's.

China can afford to hire Russian politicians over the coming decades.

Putin is dependent on cooperation from Russian oligarchs whose money is becoming more and more intertwined with China's economy.


afaIct anyway

 

[Allan]

Makes no sense. Why would Nato send in ground forces after a country has been contaminated?

Because neaby NATO countries are also contaminated by the fallout.

 

[MAGAnificent]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

That depends on Putin's level of stupidity and insanity. I don't think he seriously wants to draw NATO into the conflict on the battlefield.

 

[Juin]

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China would drop Russia like a bad habit (which would be both militarily & economically bad for Russia, since China is the only richest nation still doing semi-regular trading with them) & NATO would rightfully consider it a threat and end this war once and for all.

That's wishful thinking. You have to give the Chinese some credit. They have to be better chess players than your caricature. Russia is China's most powerful piece on the board, causing Nato to hemorrhage hundreds of billions of dollars yearly. A China Queen, if you will. And China is just supposedly to drop it off like that?

 

[Juin]

Because neaby NATO countries are also contaminated by the fallout.

Still makes no sense. The deterrence to use of nukes is fear of nuclear retaliation from others. If all one feared was ground troops Ukraine would have been tactical nuked to kingdom come by now

 

[maxparrish]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

Putin has already demonstrated that he doesn't need a justification for any escalation in Ukraine, having increased military forces over the years from 200,000 to at least 600,000 (or more), and using every kind of conventional weapon in Russia's inventory but one, and hit every kind of target - legal and illegal - in Ukraine.

To date the only thing that has stayed Putin's hand is the promise of the US and NATO retaliating, warning that it would result in "catastrophic circumstances" for Russia's troops by using either nuclear or conventional means - a promise they allegedly made should he act.

And Putin's fear of that, in turn, rests solely on Putin's perception of Trump as feckless and a TACO, a perception that has been weakened since Trump chose to strike Iran without waiting "two weeks" (a ruse).

If anything this should have convinced Putin that Trump's action makes it too risky to test him with a tactical nuke.

PS - I should add that it may serve as a weak justification for Putin using FOAB, a conventional bomb equal to 44 tons of TNT and the largest of its kind in the world. I say "weak" because the US bomb exploded underground on a pure military target - the Russian FOAB is for surface destruction.

 

[phoenix2020]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

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If they did so, China would cut them off, their economy would collapse and Putin would be on the run or in a shallow grave within a week.

 

[phoenix2020]

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China would drop Russia like a bad habit (which would be both militarily & economically bad for Russia, since China is the only richest nation still doing semi-regular trading with them) & NATO would rightfully consider it a threat and end this war once and for all.

This.

 

[Peter]

Using nukes would be so stupid it isn't even worth wondering about.
There is no way a nuclear strike would not result in a vast escalation of arms sent to Ukraine.

I could see the UK finally donating Eurofighters from Tranche 1 for a start which are vastly more capable than anything that's in the Ukrainian force now.
Russia would be condemned by all sides and most likely lose any allies they have left as they won't want to go down with Russia in any response to the use of nukes.

 

[Peter]

My understanding is that since Russia lost its shirt for the Ukraine war, China has been their sugar daddy.

China's economy is much, much larger and more robust than Russia's.

China can afford to hire Russian politicians over the coming decades.

Putin is dependent on cooperation from Russian oligarchs whose money is becoming more and more intertwined with China's economy.


afaIct anyway

China would rather not have even the slight possibility of being bombed back to the stone age which is what will happen in a full scale nuclear war.

 

[Roadvirus]

That's wishful thinking. You have to give the Chinese some credit. They have to be better chess players than your caricature. Russia is China's most powerful piece on the board, causing Nato to hemorrhage hundreds of billions of dollars yearly. A China Queen, if you will. And China is just supposedly to drop it off like that?

If Putzin uses a nuke in Ukraine (or anywhere else in anger for that matter), Xi would not want anything to do with Russia because it wants to remain a top dog in the world. And it can't do that if it's involving itself in Putzin's dick-measuring contests with NATO. China still supplies Russia with some of the stuff that the rest of the developed world isn't (like drone parts or computer stuff for other weapons). If Russia starts using Chinese-made weapons on NATO....

Nope. Xi ain't gonna touch that baby with a 100 ft. pole. If Putzin goes nuclear, Xi will lose Putzin's phone number in a heartbeat. And if reporters ask him about Putzin, the answer will be "Who is that?"

 

[noonereal]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

Don't see it. I have long believed they would tactical nukes but we're fearful of Joe.
Now, they don't need them.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

China would rather not have even the slight possibility of being bombed back to the stone age which is what will happen in a full scale nuclear war.

even w/o facing any direct retaliation

Nuclear war seems likely bad for business.

China likes business.

 

[Peter]

even w/o facing any direct retaliation

Nuclear war seems likely bad for business.

China likes business.

Killing most of your customers doesn't seem like a fantastic business plan.

 

[Stealers Wheel]

What would be the strategic objective?

"I want to control your land, therefore I will nuke that land and control it from a safe far distance."

 

[Fledermaus]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

NFL

Not ****ing Likely

 

[Integrityrespec]

He could, but using any type of nuke would take their war to a level that nobody wants to go to.

If he lets the genie out of the bottle maybe the world will condemn him. Hopefully. It's not a toy we want to see out in public.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Putin could use the novel American buster bombing of Iran as a justification for a dangerous escalation in Ukraine.

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