How and Why Did the Afghan Army Fall so Quickly to The Taliban?
Patterns of collapse indicate it was the collective result of individual soldiers making rational decisions about their own situations and deciding not to fight
By TODD LEHMANN
THE CONVERSATION via AP — The swift collapse of the Afghan military in recent days caught many in the US by surprise, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
In the months after US President Joe Biden’s April 2021 announcement of the troop withdrawal, intelligence reports warned that the Afghan military might not fight on its own, opening the way for a Taliban takeover after US forces withdrew.
Yet few expected that the Taliban would succeed so quickly.
On August 10, a US intelligence assessment predicted a Taliban takeover within 90 days. It took just five.
My research into what game theorists and academics call “commitment problems” identifies the problem, and it is not one that most experts are talking about, like poor planning or corruption. The patterns of the Afghan military’s collapse indicate it was the collective result of individual soldiers making rational decisions about their own situations and deciding not to fight.
Looking for the right cause
Throughout the conflict, the perennial emphasis on a US “exit strategy” meant US politicians always focused on whether it was time to leave yet. For 20 years, US efforts focused on short-term thinking and problem-solving that shifted both military and political goals over time, rather than investing the time and effort to develop a comprehensive long-term strategy for the war. An arguably lukewarm US commitment steadily created many of the underlying conditions for the Afghan military’s collapse. However, it did not entirely determine the outcome.
Biden claimed that the Afghan military lacked the will to fight. Others have blamed possible training problems, incompetent or corrupt Afghan soldiers, and too much reliance on private contractors to prop up Afghan forces.
Based on my research and analysis, the primary cause of what happened in the Afghan military is not any of those, nor was it a failure of character. Instead, soldiers encountered a “commitment problem,” seeing rapidly shifting conditions that changed their minds from being willing to fight to realizing it was a bad – and dangerous – idea at this time.
A cascade of surrender
Soldiers seek strength in numbers. When soldiers fight in battle, they only succeed if they fight as a unit. However, individual decisions to fight or flee depend on mutual expectations. If a soldier expects that most of his comrades will fight, the soldier’s best interest is also to fight.
But if they expect most of their comrades will surrender, soldiers may find it more attractive to surrender – which leads to a “collective action problem.” If soldiers learn that other units have actually surrendered, they expect their own comrades’ resolve to be low and will become less likely to fight. A few initial surrenders or desertions can spark a few more, and then more and more until an entire army collapses.
This is precisely what happened to the Afghan military. As the US withdrawal began in May, the Taliban started gaining territory. As they advanced, the Taliban also negotiated with groups of Afghan forces stationed at outposts and in towns, and convinced some troops to surrender. Once the first bout of surrendering occurred and the news began to spread, others quickly followed, facilitating accelerating momentum to the Taliban as they advanced without facing major resistance. In the end, Afghan soldiers chose safety in numbers by surrendering together.
Surrender Theory - the Army that fights together surrenders together?
How and why did the Afghan army fall so quickly to the Taliban?
Patterns of collapse indicate it was the collective result of individual soldiers making rational decisions about their own situations and deciding not to fightwww.timesofisrael.com
Surrender Theory - the Army that fights together surrenders together?
How and why did the Afghan army fall so quickly to the Taliban?
Patterns of collapse indicate it was the collective result of individual soldiers making rational decisions about their own situations and deciding not to fightwww.timesofisrael.com
Surrender Theory - the Army that fights together surrenders together?
How and why did the Afghan army fall so quickly to the Taliban?
Patterns of collapse indicate it was the collective result of individual soldiers making rational decisions about their own situations and deciding not to fightwww.timesofisrael.com
I'm sure you would loved for us to stay in there forever, but the predecessor set this path into motion.
Surrender Theory - the Army that fights together surrenders together?
How and why did the Afghan army fall so quickly to the Taliban?
Patterns of collapse indicate it was the collective result of individual soldiers making rational decisions about their own situations and deciding not to fightwww.timesofisrael.com
All you wokesters
The Afghan army didn't care about democracy or Afghanistan as a nation.
All they care about is their tribal affiliation.
There was nothing for them to fight for. Certainly nothing to die for.
So they laid down their guns, dressed in civilian clothes and quietly slipped into the crowd.
This is very true.Listen carefully.
Biden simply followed through on the plan that Donnie Boy put into motion.
Was Donnie Boy's plan bad, or was it a bad plan to follow through with it?
The "fact checkers" have jumped the shark long ago -- people have wisened up to the "fact checking" racket. The "fact checkers" are no more objectively honest than the Taliban's "Ministry of Defeating Vice and Protecting Virtue"
So in other words, you don't know a thing about Afghanistan, so when an Afghan crisis happens, all you know to do is reflexively blame it on Trump.
You don't know a thing about medicine, so when a medical crisis happens, all you know to do is blame it on Trump.
You don't know a thing about economics, so when an economic crisis happens, all you think to do is blame it on Trump.
We get the pattern, man. You don't need to keep demonstrating it for us over and over.
Boy, that's one huge steaming pile of bullshit for just two paragraphs.All you wokesters are doing is reading from the same CYA talking points. None of you ever spoke up against this withdrawal or blamed it on Trump before. You simply didn't care.
It's only when your Sleep Joe & Co screw it up royally, that you're suddenly fearful for Joe's reign, and are now flooding forth to retroactively claim that it was all Trump's fault.
And that's your same tired recipe for every crisis that engulfs Biden -- just blame it all on the previous govt.
Why did you side even run for POTUS this time, if your only plan was to reflexively blame anything and everything on Trump? Obama did the same to Bush.
Trump himself at least spent less time deflecting, and more effort actually solving the situations he was faced with, even thinking out-of-the-box.
Most people haven't read the Trump agreement and should ( it took me a long time to actually find it )
Biden simply followed through on the plan that Donnie Boy put into motion.
Timeline of U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan - FactCheck.org
We lay out many of the key diplomatic decisions, military actions, presidential pronouncements and expert assessments of the withdrawal agreement that ended the U.S. military's 20-year war in Afghanistan.www.factcheck.org
Was Donnie Boy's plan bad, or was it a bad plan to follow through with it?
yes they were corrupt but it also didn't help the Afghan Gov. when Trump ( with out even talking to the Afghan gov ) agreed to give the Taliban control of the Gov.How and Why Did the Afghan Army Fall so Quickly to The Taliban?
It all came down to the breadth and depth of the corruption throughout the country, which dates all the way back to day 1. When the central government in Kabul fled, the army commanders fled. With the army commanders gone, why would the rank and file soldiers remain? Many hadn't been paid in a long time, because their salaries were supposed to be distributed by commanders who were corrupt and kept their money. At some point, any soldier has to ask who they are fighting for, if not for those who lead them.
When it is rotten all the way from the top down, the very bottom cannot be expected to defend the country.
Nor should they.
It's pretty easy to research the Trump plan and then to see that Trump has some conditions tied to the agreement and the withdrawal. Biden on the other hand had none, just a unconditional withdrawal that he did nothing to get his team prepared for success. He failed to let out two biggest allies know prior to pulling out of Bagram and moving down to HKIA, he blames the debacle on Trump with the "I inherited this agreement" excuse. We all know he undid almost every policy of the Trump administration so that's a BS excuse. Biden wanted out, has said so over and over but he had no idea how to go about it, and apparently his team is ignorant or were orverruled.
Biden simply followed through on the plan that Donnie Boy put into motion.
Timeline of U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan - FactCheck.org
We lay out many of the key diplomatic decisions, military actions, presidential pronouncements and expert assessments of the withdrawal agreement that ended the U.S. military's 20-year war in Afghanistan.www.factcheck.org
Was Donnie Boy's plan bad, or was it a bad plan to follow through with it?
Regardless of whether or not the deal Trump made was a good idea. the Biden administration has had seven months to put an organized plan in place for an orderly withdrawal. This would include a planned withdrawal of troops including taking their weapons and material with them, an organized method of allowing the Afghans who worked with us to emigrate and a working plan to evacuate American citizens.
I don't see much evidence that any of those things have happened.
Maybe Trump had a plan for all those things or maybe he didn't. but the fact is that Biden has been President for seven months and there is no indication that he did anything to prepare for a date that was known well in advance.Possibly the delay was because Mr. Biden couldn't locate the detailed plan that the Trump administration had drawn up for the repatriation of 100% of the Americans in Afghanistan (plus all of the Afghans whose lives would have been endangered due to the fact that they had worked with the Americans) and had put into place within days of Mr. Trump signing the agreement with the Taliban that the US would shuffle on home.
We know that there was such a plan because Mr. Trump has released all of its details - right?
More likely Biden couldn't remember he was the President. Biden is clearly not up to the task. He's got less than a week to get ALL Americans out, (that want to leave) plus our allies and vulnerable. And, remember he has to get the troops out as well. We will see.Possibly the delay was because Mr. Biden couldn't locate the detailed plan that the Trump administration had drawn up for the repatriation of 100% of the Americans in Afghanistan (plus all of the Afghans whose lives would have been endangered due to the fact that they had worked with the Americans) and had put into place within days of Mr. Trump signing the agreement with the Taliban that the US would shuffle on home.
We know that there was such a plan because Mr. Trump has released all of its details - right?
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