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You are just confused. The 900% figure is in nominal terms (not factored for inflation) as were your rent and gasoline data points.
Toilet-Tissue 'Desheeting' Shrinks Rolls, Plumps Profits - Yahoo! Finance
So here we go, Kimberly-Clark Corp is bulking up toilet paper 15% but reducing the number of actual sheets by 13%. "Consumer products makers call this 'desheeting'—reducing the number of sheets of toilet paper or tissues in each package while holding retail prices constant."
The article goes on to say that this has been a common practice for many consumer products over the years, shrinking the amount you get in order to maintain prices. Examples included in the article: "A regular Snickers bar now weighs 1.86 ounces, down from 2.07 ounces in the past, and Tropicana Pure Premium orange juice is now sold in 59-ounce bottles, versus 64-ounce cartons prior to 2010."
Thus we begin to see what I like to call HIDDEN INFLATION.
Some may think it is funny, joke about "toilet paper;" but hasn't anyone else noticed this shrinkage in other products over the years? Not only shrinkage, but after a period of adjustment eventual increases in prices for these shrunken products? So while you pay the same or slightly higher price for any product, you are getting less and less of the actual product in each package. Yet economists, financial advisors, and our government keeps telling us our worthless money isn't causing inflation, just check consumer prices and see, they've only gone up a few percent each year.
I've been noticing this over time, but I am glad to find a recent article on the subject to post as proof positive on the issue. Proof positive that we are NOT getting what we think we are paying for; that our dollar is not maintaining its purchasing power; and that inflation, though HIDDEN by these practices, is growing rampantly.
Counter this you supporters of our current monetary system! Counter this you Greed is Good Capitalist naysayers who think we don’t need a minimum wage, much less a “living wage” for our workers. Shades of “let them eat cake!”
What do you have to say now? :waiting:
Wrong. Food and energy are most certainly included. There is, among many others, a special index that excludes food and energy, but that's not the headline number.I largely agree with the idea that there are hidden inflations in the products we purchase. There are a number of ways that government statisticians hide this fact. For example, food and energy costs are excluded from inflation calculations because the prices for these are "too volatile" (nevermind that the volatility is mostly to the upside).
Quality adjustment works both ways.With regard to the sort of thing Captain Adverse is claiming, government statisticians regularly make use of a "value added" factor in their calculations to reduce some of the price increase of consumer goods.
Except hedonic adjustment Isn't used for dishwashers. Appliances that use it are washing machines, dryers, stove tops, refrigerators, and microwaves.[/quote]For example, it used to be the case that dishwashers would be controlled by a dial. When buttons became popular, the price increases in dishwashers were factored out for a few years (even though the increases probably had nothing to do with the design changes) because customers were receiving more for their money (supposedly) in that they could now press buttons rather than turn knobs.
Statisticians don't collect the prices, economic assistants do. And they have to check the size...how would you know if they were asking for the price of say, a 2oz bag of chips or a 10 oz bag? And they're supposed to check the shelf to confirm the item is available and the right item.The statisticians who contacted my company for pricing info did not collect data on size changes. They just wanted price changes.
You haven't shown me anything that supports a change of mind, and I am not going to waste time debating it with you since it serves no useful purpose. :2brickwal
Why the **** did you reply to my statement? It was not addressed to you.
DUH! YOU quoted ME. :censored
No, it was a general question
open to those interested in discussion.
Given your response, that was not the case.
So i ask again, why the **** did you reply to my statement?
If you don't want a response from a particular member, don't quote them.
Make a general statement that is stand-alone without reference to that member's prior statement and then you don't have to expect a response from that member. Simple enough concept.
and I am not going to waste time debating it with you since it serves no useful purpose.
CA, the BLS does in fact track changes in quantity and package size. Your initial claim that there is "hidden inflation" is incorrect, and is based on a lack of understanding of how inflation is calculated.
Arguing about who quoted what doesn't change that fact.
I didn't quote you.
Geez...I don't need to know the difference. If $10,316 1975 dollars was the inflation adjusted equivalent of $44,851 in current dollars...your figures don't show that your 900% personal increase is that much of a real increase at all.
Stop with your smoke and mirrors.
You are just confused. The 900% figure is in nominal terms (not factored for inflation) as were your rent and gasoline data points.
Actually, you did...(see post #100)
Nice.He put me on ignore when I pointed that out..while claiming I said things I neither said nor implied.
Not that I know of. He just announced he was going to.Nice.
Sorry to derail, but is there a spot in the CP where you can see that someone is ignoring you? I don't see anything like that. Thx
Visbek said:The BLS does, in fact, check serving / package sizes on goods.
Visbek said:Each month, BLS data collectors called economic assistants visit or call thousands of retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices, all over the United States, to obtain information on the prices of the thousands of items used to track and measure price changes in the CPI. These economic assistants record the prices of about 80,000 items each month, representing a scientifically selected sample of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services purchased.
Visbek said:During each call or visit, the economic assistant collects price data on a specific good or service that was precisely defined during an earlier visit.
Visbek said:If the selected item is available, the economic assistant records its price. If the selected item is no longer available, or if there have been changes in the quality or quantity (for example, eggs sold in packages of ten when they previously were sold by the dozen)
Visbek said:of the good or service since the last time prices were collected, the economic assistant selects a new item or records the quality change in the current item.
Visbek said:The recorded information is sent to the national office of BLS, where commodity specialists who have detailed knowledge about the particular goods or services priced review the data. These specialists check the data for accuracy and consistency and make any necessary corrections or adjustments, which can range from an adjustment for a change in the size or quantity of a packaged item to more complex adjustments based upon statistical analysis of the value of an item's features or quality.
Visbek said:/end thread
pinqy said:Wrong. Food and energy are most certainly included. There is, among many others, a special index that excludes food and energy, but that's not the headline number.
pinqy said:Quality adjustment works both ways.
pinqy said:Statisticians don't collect the prices, economic assistants do.
pinqy said:And they have to check the size...how would you know if they were asking for the price of say, a 2oz bag of chips or a 10 oz bag?
pinqy said:And they're supposed to check the shelf to confirm the item is available and the right item.
....What I meant to say is this: policy makers most often use the food and energy excluded index to make monetary and economic policy. See, for instance:
No Inflation? Fed Calls Food, Energy Gains ‘Temporary’ Despite 24-Year Rise
Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco | What is “core inflation,” and why do economists use it instead of overall or general inflation to track changes in the overall price level?
the paper that can be downloaded here:
Food Price Inflation: Explanation and Policy Implications - Council on Foreign Relations
and also:
Fed Research: Inflation Expectations Overly Sensitive to Food, Energy Prices - Real Time Economics - WSJ
The Inflation that Concerns the Fed Does Not First Affect Food and Energy Prices | Beat the Press
Well, it certainly should, but this is a different claim than saying it actually does.
Except hedonic adjustment Isn't used for dishwashers. Appliances that use it are washing machines, dryers, stove tops, refrigerators, and microwaves.
I think this is incorrect. It appears to be variable, dependent on when a substitution occurs. See, for instance:
Hedonic Model for DVD Players
In any case, I was using dishwashers as an illustration of the point. If you don't like dishwashers (or if the BLS doesn't), then translate to microwaves, washing machines, or whatever.
They would provide UPCs. The UCC allows a company to reuse a UPC for a smaller package provided it avers that the item is intended to be a one-to-one substitute for the larger size item.
Well, I suppose it's possible they mystery shopped some of my stores or something, but surely you're aware that what someone is supposed to do, and what they actually do, are two different things.
They don't have to ask you for price quantity changes. It's hardly a state secret. All they have to do is get the size changes into their database, and that can be done anywhere.That was not my experience. All they wanted were UPCs and prices.
No, that is "chained CPI." It's an alternate measure (C-CPI).This is complex government-speak for "massaging the data." CPI no longer tracks a fixed basket of goods with the same weights over time; the assumption is that consumers will substitute less expensive items for more expensive ones.
Shadowstats is basically bull****.I refer you to this link:
Visbek said:They don't have to ask you for price quantity changes. It's hardly a state secret. All they have to do is get the size changes into their database, and that can be done anywhere.
Visbek said:No, that is "chained CPI." It's an alternate measure (C-CPI).
They've been discussing switching to chained CPI, but haven't done it yet.
Visbek said:Shadowstats is basically bull****.
Visbek said:So unless you actually work at the BLS, and know for a fact that they ignore changes in quantity and size -- even when they explicitly say state that they do -- then yeah, the thread is pretty much over.
Visbek said:Here ya go, UPC info from a database. This is one run by a hobbyist, no less.
UPC Database: Item Record
Size/weight is right in the DB. If some dude does this in his spare time, there should be little doubt the BLS can do so as well.
Visbek said:Are we done yet?
Captain Adverse said:I want to thank you for this and your prior post #115. I have never claimed to be an economist (nor would I want to be), so all I can argue from is empirical evidence garnered over the last 50 years. I knew what the economy was like prior to 1975 and how much is has changed since.
I've always been confused by the constant refrain from economists that nothing is amiss, our money is still good...look your wages are up! But they never really address the fact that prices for everything also went up, while both product quality and the packaged amounts kept going down. Instead they argue regular inflation is good, and always quote the CPI and other razzle dazzle statistics claiming everything is fine. Yet this doesn't seem to match reality much.
I can't argue with them because I am not a charts and figures guy, I am just a KNOW IT CUZ I SEE IT kinda guy. They appear wrong because what they say does not reflect in the consumer marketplace. I mean who cares if major items I'll buy once in a decade like washing machines or HDTV seem cheaper when everyday items and services I need use up everything I earn and more?
So thanks for pushing back and providing those links. Kudos!
Yes.You mean, size changes?
Yes. But chained CPI changes much more frequently than the standard measure, and is not the official inflation rate.I agree they don't do this as much as they (by which I mean, politicians) like. However, the basket of goods is not fixed, and it does track changes in consumer buying patterns. At least some of those changes are going to be due to the old items becoming unaffordable.
Again, some prices have gone up, others have gone down; and people notice negatives much more than positives.My experience as a consumer is that prices have been increasing at a much faster rate than the official report.
Oh. Right. That's obviously conclusive, hard data. People are reporting that they don't feel economically secure... during a recovery from the worst economic downturn since the 1930's. Obviously, that proves that inflation is greater than the official rate.I don't think this is mere bellyaching or nostalgia. It seems to be widely reported.
"Epistemic neutrality" suggests that if you're going to accuse anyone (including a government) of blatant malfeasance -- such as manipulating price data over a period of years -- you ought to have a little more evidence than "I feel like I'm not doing as well as I did when I was 22."It seems to me that the proper attitude ought to be epistemic neutrality. What you seem to be saying is that without a firm reason to doubt what government tells us, we ought to simply believe what they say.
The OP doesn't understand how the data is collected, he doesn't understand how it's evaluated, doesn't have a good grasp of economics, and is making a claim based on biased subjective impressions.You seem to be in a hurry to be finished with this conversation.
Visbek said:Yes.
What I mean is: Rather than waste the time of 200 data collectors, all they have to do is put the size changes into a database used by the BLS. That way, all the data collectors need is the UPC and the price.
So again: Just because they didn't ask you doesn't mean they weren't getting that information via some other means.
Each month, BLS data collectors called economic assistants visit or call thousands of retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices, all over the United States, to obtain information on the prices of the thousands of items used to track and measure price changes in the CPI. These economic assistants record the prices of about 80,000 items each month, representing a scientifically selected sample of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services purchased.
During each call or visit, the economic assistant collects price data on a specific good or service that was precisely defined during an earlier visit. If the selected item is available, the economic assistant records its price. If the selected item is no longer available, or if there have been changes in the quality or quantity (for example, eggs sold in packages of ten when they previously were sold by the dozen) of the good or service since the last time prices were collected, the economic assistant selects a new item or records the quality change in the current item.
VIsbek said:Yes. But chained CPI changes much more frequently than the standard measure, and is not the official inflation rate.
Visbek said:Plus, the standard measure ought to change. Should they still be tracking prices on VCR's, floppy discs and Palm Pilots? Should they refuse to track prices on coconut water and energy bars, because they weren't tracked in 2000?
Visbek said:Again, some prices have gone up, others have gone down; and people notice negatives much more than positives.
Visbek said:That's why the official CPI is based on data collectors reporting prices, rather than asking people on the street if they believe prices have gone up.
Visbek said:Oh. Right. That's obviously conclusive, hard data.
Visbek said:People are reporting that they don't feel economically secure... during a recovery from the worst economic downturn since the 1930's. Obviously, that proves that inflation is greater than the official rate.
Visbek said:Of course, it could also be that while you were increasing their wages, your company probably had to scale back on other benefits such as employer contributions to health care; or, their 401(k)'s were tanking; or their home values were underwater; or the decline in the value of their home, while an unrealized loss, weighs heavily on their state of mind.
Visbek said:Or, again, they're noticing the things that cost more (gas, onions) and taking for granted things that get cheaper all the time (cell phones, durable goods).
Visbek said:Or, they take for granted how compared to the 2006 model, that 2013 Toyota Camry LE they're eyeing now has all-disc brakes, brake assist, 6-speed transmission, electronic stability system, lighted vanity mirrors, better airbags, 1-touch windows, an audio jack, a CD that can play MP3's, bluetooth compatibility....
Visbek said:And adjusted for inflation, the prices are the same.
Visbek said:You really can't tell based on subjective measures, because again, the reporters are biased.
Visbek said:"Epistemic neutrality" suggests that if you're going to accuse anyone (including a government) of blatant malfeasance -- such as manipulating price data over a period of years -- you ought to have a little more evidence than "I feel like I'm not doing as well as I did when I was 22."
Visbek said:And no, a flat declaration that "government lies" is not sufficient. It's about as valuable as saying "women are bad drivers, therefore my wife will be at fault if she's in an accident."
Visbek said:The OP doesn't understand how the data is collected, he doesn't understand how it's evaluated, doesn't have a good grasp of economics, and is making a claim based on biased subjective impressions.
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