1) Will a post-Brexit UK need a new trade deal with the European Union?
Yes. Once the UK’s formal decision to leave the EU is notified to the European council of EU leaders, under article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, the UK will be giving formal notice that it will be leaving the EU. Article 50 sets a two-year window to renegotiate a new legal basis for Britain’s trade relationship with the EU - although it also allows for an extension.
2) Will tariffs be imposed on UK goods and services under a new trade deal with the EU?
This is entirely possible and up for discussion under a grand UK-EU deal. Currently, UK companies are able to trade with the EU on a tariff free and quota free basis. During negotiations for a new trade deal, there is nothing to stop Brussels seeking to impose a 5% tariff on all UK car exports (more than eight of 10 UK-made cars are sold abroad). The UK can, of course, threaten tit-for-tat tariffs on BMW or Fiat cars, but it means consumers on both sides of the Channel suffer.
5) What happens to Britain’s financial services industry?
Britain’s financial and professional services industry – banks, accountants, corporate lawyers, investment managers is a significant contributor to GDP (around 12%, which is more than manufacturing). On Saturday, a senior figure at the European Central Bank said banks in the City of London risked being stripped of their lucrative EU “passports” that allow them to sell services to the rest of the union. The City, as the industry is better known, will want to retain that passport; otherwise it will not, for instance, be able to advise on a mega-euro takeover in Germany or sell euro-denominated products such as derivatives.
In full here.
Snippets:
Brexit will prove to be a colossal blunder to the British economy, tantamount to the same happening in the US - for instance California seceding and establishing a separate nation. (Interesting option, and I wonder what the American people would think of that circumstance!)
There will be less European synergy because the Brits will no longer be privy to the important meetings that employ EU data to discuss possible policy alternatives regarding entire industries. Of which they were previously participants.
Ditto the ability to make use of EU-funds in the development of key technologies. That funding is considerable, and will impact British universities.
Moreover, they will be cut off from any discussion regarding the EU-Central Bank financial manipulations of the Euro that could impact the British pound - whereas before they had some say in the matter as an EU-member.
These, I suggest are important privileges, or (as LBJ used to say) "Better being inside the tent pissing out, than outside pissing in" ...
__________________________
The upset? Your contention is that even though it look less than 24 hours for the UK to create a new English word "Bregret," that the European politicians take this as a sign to be scared?... be the upset it has caused in European capitals and among the Eurocrats scared out of their wits.
The upset? Your contention is that even though it look less than 24 hours for the UK to create a new English word "Bregret," that the European politicians take this as a sign to be scared?
Also, I should add.
Yesterday Farage predicted that the UK is going to go through a recession: Nigel Farage says Britain heading for recession 'regardless of Brexit' | Politics | The Guardian
Of course it has nothing to do with the Brexit.
Farage just thinks that he should set the bar really, really, really low.
the largest impact on the UK from the Brexit vote will be the upset it has caused in European capitals and among the Eurocrats scared out of their wits. They know they are under enormous pressure to change the EU's structure and goals and that, if they do not, the Union will disintegrate and go away.
Average educational attainment, median income and social class in English local authorities were the strongest predictors of how residents in that area voted in the referendum. The results indicate that the greater the proportion of residents with a higher education, the more likely a local authority was to vote remain.
You kidding? ... The EU politicians aren't demanding the UK leave immediately because they're panicked or afraid. They're pissed off. Brussels doesn't like nor has ever liked the UK, because over the past 40 years the UK has avoided full EU integration, attempted to carve out special benefits for themselves and was always either opposed to or was noncommittal about EU initiatives. In that the UK is Europe's "problem child." The Eurocrats want to both punish and wash their hands of the UK problem immediately, which was opposed to Angela Merkel's point about approaching the development quickly but with measure:It shows how irrational they are thinking and under how much pressure they must feel themselves.
You kidding? ... The EU politicians aren't demanding the UK leave immediately because they're panicked or afraid. They're pissed off. Brussels doesn't like nor has ever liked the UK, because over the past 40 years the UK has avoided full EU integration, attempted to carve out special benefits for themselves and was always either opposed to or was noncommittal about EU initiatives. In that the UK is Europe's "problem child." The Eurocrats want to both punish and wash their hands of the UK problem immediately, which was opposed to Angela Merkel's point about approaching the development quickly but with measure:
Angela Merkel's stand against an accelerated exit deal for Britain holds out the possibility of a better settlement of Britain's decision to leave the European Union.
Angela Merkel shows a better way to deal with Brexit | afr.com
Britain needs time to react to the result of last week’s vote to break away from the European Union, but it can’t leave Europe in limbo for too long, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned on Monday.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel Warns Not to Let Uncertainty Over Brexit Drag Out - WSJ
Brussels doesn't like nor has ever liked the UK, because over the past 40 years the UK has avoided full EU integration
Non members of the Euro-group: Bulgaria; Croatia; Czech Republic; Denmark; Hungary; Poland; Romania; Sweden; United Kingdom
Adopting the Euro was never a condition for EU "full membership".
Get your facts right ...
We shall see how it goes. The three prime ministers sounded like they are now in a hurry to get the rule changes agreed on and not wait till UK is no longer a member.
The EU politicians aren't demanding the UK leave immediately because they're panicked or afraid. They're pissed off.]
The EU politicians aren't demanding the UK leave immediately because they're panicked or afraid. They're pissed off.]
________________________It's the right of MPs alone to make or break laws, and the peers to block them. So there's no force whatsoever in the referendum result. It's entirely for MPs to decide.
MPs are entitled to vote against it and are bound to vote against it, if they think it's in Britain's best interest [to vote that way]. It's not over yet.
The sooner the EU is out, the less voice it has in EU-affairs and voting.
It's cleaner, and the EU can get on with its business without the UK and its Tories ...
As I just wrote a friend closer to the events than I, he should maybe try to look at the position from a Downing Street vantage.
- The referendum was non-binding. It gives Parliament a mandate enforce option to trigger article 50 with no obligation attached.
- In the next months the EU says it wants to change its constitution in order to reduce the centrifugal forces and further disintegration. Independent of Brexit, it would be important for the UK to participate in the formulation of these changes as a full member.
- Should the changes be enough significant that the reason and basis of the referendum would no longer exist. In that case it would be negligent or even illegitimate to activate article 50.
This being the case, the position might be interpreted to be that it would be seriously negligent for the government to exit now.
The British government cannot ignore the Brexit result...it would be political suicide for whomever voted to ignore it.
They would be basically saying...'you know that Brexit vote we all made a huge deal about (including me) and we told you to go and vote? Turns out we were lying...we only were going to honor your vote if it was 'Remain'. So you all - the 70+% of you eligible voters who actually voted - jumped through hoops for absolutely nothing.
In the end, we do not respect the word of the voters'.
No chance.
Brexit may or may not happen...but no way Parliament ignores the Brexit result.
The 17+ million who voted Leave will never vote for those that ignore the Brexit result, again. And a lot of those that voted 'Remain' will be so pissed at these politicians disregarding the referendum that they will not vote for them again either.
Btw, the British, German and French markets are way up so far today. And America is way up in futures trading plus gold is down.
This silly panic seems to be over after just 2 days (though you never know for certain).
Britain - in the end - will almost certainly be fine without the EU. The EU has more to lose from Brexit then Britain does, IMO.
The DOW futures are up and so is the FTSE's (Britain's stock market).
Looks like the panic may have ended.
If you believe that the expected waning of an equally expected market hysteria is a sign of market stability now returning, you are to be commended upon your positive thinking but not upon your naiveté.The DOW futures are up and so is the FTSE's (Britain's stock market).
Looks like the panic may have ended.
Really? Do tell more.~...........................The UK was fine before the EU ..........................~
In the next months the EU says it wants to change its constitution in order to reduce the centrifugal forces and further disintegration.
They're worried about large amounts of discontent anyway and were so long before Brexit even came onto the table.The upset? Your contention is that even though it look less than 24 hours for the UK to create a new English word "Bregret," that the European politicians take this as a sign to be scared?
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