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From the Guardian: How will Brexit affect Britain's trade with Europe?

Lafayette

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In full here.

Snippets:
1) Will a post-Brexit UK need a new trade deal with the European Union?
Yes. Once the UK’s formal decision to leave the EU is notified to the European council of EU leaders, under article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, the UK will be giving formal notice that it will be leaving the EU. Article 50 sets a two-year window to renegotiate a new legal basis for Britain’s trade relationship with the EU - although it also allows for an extension.

2) Will tariffs be imposed on UK goods and services under a new trade deal with the EU?

This is entirely possible and up for discussion under a grand UK-EU deal. Currently, UK companies are able to trade with the EU on a tariff free and quota free basis. During negotiations for a new trade deal, there is nothing to stop Brussels seeking to impose a 5% tariff on all UK car exports (more than eight of 10 UK-made cars are sold abroad). The UK can, of course, threaten tit-for-tat tariffs on BMW or Fiat cars, but it means consumers on both sides of the Channel suffer.

5) What happens to Britain’s financial services industry?

Britain’s financial and professional services industry – banks, accountants, corporate lawyers, investment managers is a significant contributor to GDP (around 12%, which is more than manufacturing). On Saturday, a senior figure at the European Central Bank said banks in the City of London risked being stripped of their lucrative EU “passports” that allow them to sell services to the rest of the union. The City, as the industry is better known, will want to retain that passport; otherwise it will not, for instance, be able to advise on a mega-euro takeover in Germany or sell euro-denominated products such as derivatives.

Brexit will prove to be a colossal blunder to the British economy, tantamount to the same happening in the US - for instance California seceding and establishing a separate nation. (Interesting option, and I wonder what the American people would think of that circumstance!)

There will be less European synergy because the Brits will no longer be privy to the important meetings that employ EU data to discuss possible policy alternatives regarding entire industries. Of which they were previously participants.

Ditto the ability to make use of EU-funds in the development of key technologies. That funding is considerable, and will impact British universities.

Moreover, they will be cut off from any discussion regarding the EU-Central Bank financial manipulations of the Euro that could impact the British pound - whereas before they had some say in the matter as an EU-member.

These, I suggest are important privileges, or (as LBJ used to say) "Better being inside the tent pissing out, than outside pissing in" ...
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In full here.

Snippets:

Brexit will prove to be a colossal blunder to the British economy, tantamount to the same happening in the US - for instance California seceding and establishing a separate nation. (Interesting option, and I wonder what the American people would think of that circumstance!)

There will be less European synergy because the Brits will no longer be privy to the important meetings that employ EU data to discuss possible policy alternatives regarding entire industries. Of which they were previously participants.

Ditto the ability to make use of EU-funds in the development of key technologies. That funding is considerable, and will impact British universities.

Moreover, they will be cut off from any discussion regarding the EU-Central Bank financial manipulations of the Euro that could impact the British pound - whereas before they had some say in the matter as an EU-member.

These, I suggest are important privileges, or (as LBJ used to say) "Better being inside the tent pissing out, than outside pissing in" ...
__________________________

If the Brits are smart, the largest impact on the UK from the Brexit vote will be the upset it has caused in European capitals and among the Eurocrats scared out of their wits. They know they are under enormous pressure to change the EU's structure and goals and that, if they do not, the Union will disintegrate and go away. They want to start the process as soon as possible, but do not want the UK at the table fomenting more reasonable rules than "Ever Closer Union", which some of the scared old men are beginning to rave about. They know that they could get the majorities before, but that support has gone as more and more EU member governments see themselves under siege from, what they like to call extremists, while the Eastern countries are rather disgusted with the large EU countries. They absolutely want England out during this process and that is why they are squealing that Cameron should trigger article 50 tomorrow.

But is England plays this part of the negotiations well, the EU will be fixed, many of the old guard Eurocrats will be gone and there will be no reason for the UK to Brexit anymore.
 

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... be the upset it has caused in European capitals and among the Eurocrats scared out of their wits.
The upset? Your contention is that even though it look less than 24 hours for the UK to create a new English word "Bregret," that the European politicians take this as a sign to be scared?
 

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The upset? Your contention is that even though it look less than 24 hours for the UK to create a new English word "Bregret," that the European politicians take this as a sign to be scared?

At the moment most everyone is still waiting for the dust to settle.

But the game structure of the for negotiations and the pressures on the players are well enough known to see that the British weakness is an illusion unless they make really bad moves. One such would be to trigger Article 50 head over heels. Demanding this was really stupid of the EU people. It shows how irrational they are thinking and under how much pressure they must feel themselves. As far as negotiation tactics doing so was as ignorant as the way they constructed the Euro or Schengen.
 

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Lafayette

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the largest impact on the UK from the Brexit vote will be the upset it has caused in European capitals and among the Eurocrats scared out of their wits. They know they are under enormous pressure to change the EU's structure and goals and that, if they do not, the Union will disintegrate and go away.

Hogwash.

The Europeans have been warring with one another since time immemorial, namely because monarchies thought themselves spiritual leaders designated by God. Which is why they were crowned in a Cathedral.

Finally, after two world-wars they have found a common destiny and you would take it away from them? Or, perhaps you presume they are so stupid as to renounce it. I am convinced of this largely because if what you say is indeed the sentiment of some of the older residents, the younger people with sufficient education credentials are resolutely in favor of a maintained European Union.

From the Guardian:
Average educational attainment, median income and social class in English local authorities were the strongest predictors of how residents in that area voted in the referendum. The results indicate that the greater the proportion of residents with a higher education, the more likely a local authority was to vote remain.

And here as well: EU referendum results: every area by key demographics (Each one of the dots is a voting area.)
Cluap64WYAAgnTr.jpg


The younger set of Brits do not want to turn back the clock, as well as those with a higher educational status.
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It shows how irrational they are thinking and under how much pressure they must feel themselves.
You kidding? ... The EU politicians aren't demanding the UK leave immediately because they're panicked or afraid. They're pissed off. Brussels doesn't like nor has ever liked the UK, because over the past 40 years the UK has avoided full EU integration, attempted to carve out special benefits for themselves and was always either opposed to or was noncommittal about EU initiatives. In that the UK is Europe's "problem child." The Eurocrats want to both punish and wash their hands of the UK problem immediately, which was opposed to Angela Merkel's point about approaching the development quickly but with measure:

Angela Merkel's stand against an accelerated exit deal for Britain holds out the possibility of a better settlement of Britain's decision to leave the European Union.
Angela Merkel shows a better way to deal with Brexit | afr.com

Britain needs time to react to the result of last week’s vote to break away from the European Union, but it can’t leave Europe in limbo for too long, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned on Monday.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel Warns Not to Let Uncertainty Over Brexit Drag Out - WSJ
 
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Both the President of France and the head of the EU in Brussels asked Britain to come to a "quick resolution" - meaning exit. Other (less political minds) looked at the shared EU-laws (about 40,000 pages worth at last count) and thought it would take 3-years for Britain to understand which laws it would keep and which it would let go.

The Brits are of two kinds, the ordinary people who actually like visiting Europe and its great diversity. And the politicians who can only get elected based upon their "differences of opinion". Of course, that can be said of any country.

It is certain that this was Prime Minister Cameron's key-mistake - to propose a referendum based upon a subject that, in fact, few people understood. The plurality is very short indeed, only 2.9% of the voters; and we are seeing commentary about voters who had no idea that Brexit meant "exit from the EU", which is a bit difficult to believe. Others are thought to have confused the migrants as the source of their problems within the EU. (After all, it was Angela who suggested that Germany was willing to "take in all the migrants that wanted to come". Which went over like a lead-balloon in most of the rest of Europe.)

Cameron is most certainly history. It is difficult to see where he could be elected dog-catcher.

But is Boris (ex-mayor of London) any better? Doubtful. The Tories are pee-brained (all mouth and no mind) ... like their brethren on the "other side of the pond" ...

It thus seems that a good many Brits may be questioning their initial motives to have voted for Brexit - but not the young who were genuinely pleased that their cohorts from Europe wanted to come to London to get a job. Hey great, thinking, "They are coming here when we Brits used to go over there for a job!"

And now the EU-people will be leaving. To go back where?

Anywhere, but most certainly without their newly found British comrades in arms. Whyzzat?

Because still fresh in the minds of many adult members of the EU are the negotiations with a strident "Margaret" (Thatcher) who was intransigent to the point of silliness at getting "breaks" from the EU - which they gave her just to shut her up.

And now that particular bird has come back home to roost ...
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joG

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You kidding? ... The EU politicians aren't demanding the UK leave immediately because they're panicked or afraid. They're pissed off. Brussels doesn't like nor has ever liked the UK, because over the past 40 years the UK has avoided full EU integration, attempted to carve out special benefits for themselves and was always either opposed to or was noncommittal about EU initiatives. In that the UK is Europe's "problem child." The Eurocrats want to both punish and wash their hands of the UK problem immediately, which was opposed to Angela Merkel's point about approaching the development quickly but with measure:

Angela Merkel's stand against an accelerated exit deal for Britain holds out the possibility of a better settlement of Britain's decision to leave the European Union.
Angela Merkel shows a better way to deal with Brexit | afr.com

Britain needs time to react to the result of last week’s vote to break away from the European Union, but it can’t leave Europe in limbo for too long, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned on Monday.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel Warns Not to Let Uncertainty Over Brexit Drag Out - WSJ

We shall see how it goes. The three prime ministers sounded like they are now in a hurry to get the rule changes agreed on and not wait till UK is no longer a member.
 

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Nonsense.

Britain has the fifth largest economy in the world...no one is going to stop trading with them just because they left the EU. Britain will just set up new trade deals with EU countries...no big deal.

Corporations run politicians. Do people honestly think corporations are going to not want to trade with GB and lose all that potential profit? Come on now. They will push their respective governments to get a trade deal in place as fast as possible. And the politicians will oblige. And all the people that are employed making products that are exported to Britain will push them hard to make new deals.

Sure, the pound is way down on silly panic...but that will pass.

The UK was fine before the EU and it will be fine after the EU.

Remember, the principle reason the EU started was not economics...but peace. Europe was tired of wars amongst the European nations and they - probably rightly - thought that an EU would lessen the chance of more wars. And it has worked.
But it is a different era now and I think the days of European wars is probably over - with or without the EU.
 

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Brussels doesn't like nor has ever liked the UK, because over the past 40 years the UK has avoided full EU integration

Non members of the Euro-group: Bulgaria; Croatia; Czech Republic; Denmark; Hungary; Poland; Romania; Sweden; United Kingdom

Adopting the Euro was never a condition for EU "full membership".

Get your facts right ...
 

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Non members of the Euro-group: Bulgaria; Croatia; Czech Republic; Denmark; Hungary; Poland; Romania; Sweden; United Kingdom
Adopting the Euro was never a condition for EU "full membership".
Get your facts right ...

Where did I mention the adaptation of the Euro? Re-read my post again, please.
 

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We shall see how it goes. The three prime ministers sounded like they are now in a hurry to get the rule changes agreed on and not wait till UK is no longer a member.

The sooner the EU is out, the less voice it has in EU-affairs and voting.

It's cleaner, and the EU can get on with its business without the UK and its Tories ...
 

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The EU politicians aren't demanding the UK leave immediately because they're panicked or afraid. They're pissed off.]

Wrong.

The UK has decided that it does not want to be in the EU, so it is best that it refrain from any further meeting regarding matters pertinent only to the UK.

A special committee has been set up within the EU at Berlaymont to expedite the departure. The UK no longer pays into running the EU, and no longer receives subsidies.

The cut is clean and quick, which is better. Both parties can get on with their own business. And, in 3/5 years time, when the Tories have been defeated in Parliament, the Labor Party will make a request to rejoin.

The Tories are going to pay mightily for their miscalculation ...
 

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The DOW futures are up and so is the FTSE's (Britain's stock market).

Looks like the panic may have ended.
 

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The EU politicians aren't demanding the UK leave immediately because they're panicked or afraid. They're pissed off.]

UK voters have decided by referendum that they do not want to remain in the EU. However, the referendum is purely advisory in nature, and the British Legislature (a Parliament and the House of Lords) must vote on any decision to exit the EU for it to be formalized. The vote could be stymied in Parliament, if the entire block of Labor and those members of the Tory Party who did not favor Brexit were to vote it down. There are 302 Conservatives in Parliament and only 47 would need to vote down (along with Labor) any proposition to leave the EU.

From the Independent newpaper, excerpt:

It's the right of MPs alone to make or break laws, and the peers to block them. So there's no force whatsoever in the referendum result. It's entirely for MPs to decide.

MPs are entitled to vote against it and are bound to vote against it, if they think it's in Britain's best interest [to vote that way]. It's not over yet.
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The sooner the EU is out, the less voice it has in EU-affairs and voting.

It's cleaner, and the EU can get on with its business without the UK and its Tories ...

As I just wrote a friend closer to the events than I, he should maybe try to look at the position from a Downing Street vantage.

- The referendum was non-binding. It gives Parliament a mandate enforce option to trigger article 50 with no obligation attached.
- In the next months the EU says it wants to change its constitution in order to reduce the centrifugal forces and further disintegration. Independent of Brexit, it would be important for the UK to participate in the formulation of these changes as a full member.
- Should the changes be enough significant that the reason and basis of the referendum would no longer exist. In that case it would be negligent or even illegitimate to activate article 50.

This being the case, the position might be interpreted to be that it would be seriously negligent for the government to exit now.
 

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As I just wrote a friend closer to the events than I, he should maybe try to look at the position from a Downing Street vantage.

- The referendum was non-binding. It gives Parliament a mandate enforce option to trigger article 50 with no obligation attached.
- In the next months the EU says it wants to change its constitution in order to reduce the centrifugal forces and further disintegration. Independent of Brexit, it would be important for the UK to participate in the formulation of these changes as a full member.
- Should the changes be enough significant that the reason and basis of the referendum would no longer exist. In that case it would be negligent or even illegitimate to activate article 50.

This being the case, the position might be interpreted to be that it would be seriously negligent for the government to exit now.

The British government cannot ignore the Brexit result...it would be political suicide for whomever voted to ignore it.

They would be basically saying...'you know that Brexit vote we all made a huge deal about (including me) and we told you to go and vote? Turns out we were lying...we only were going to honor your vote if it was 'Remain'. So you all - the 70+% of you eligible voters who actually voted - jumped through hoops for absolutely nothing.
In the end, we do not respect the word of the voters'.


No chance.

Brexit may or may not happen...but no way Parliament ignores the Brexit result.

The 17+ million who voted Leave will never vote for those that ignore the Brexit result, again. And a lot of those that voted 'Remain' will be so pissed at these politicians disregarding the referendum that they will not vote for them again either.


Btw, the British, German and French markets are way up so far today. And America is way up in futures trading plus gold is down.
This silly panic seems to be over after just 2 days (though you never know for certain).
Britain - in the end - will almost certainly be fine without the EU. The EU has more to lose from Brexit then Britain does, IMO.
 
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The British government cannot ignore the Brexit result...it would be political suicide for whomever voted to ignore it.

They would be basically saying...'you know that Brexit vote we all made a huge deal about (including me) and we told you to go and vote? Turns out we were lying...we only were going to honor your vote if it was 'Remain'. So you all - the 70+% of you eligible voters who actually voted - jumped through hoops for absolutely nothing.
In the end, we do not respect the word of the voters'.


No chance.

Brexit may or may not happen...but no way Parliament ignores the Brexit result.

The 17+ million who voted Leave will never vote for those that ignore the Brexit result, again. And a lot of those that voted 'Remain' will be so pissed at these politicians disregarding the referendum that they will not vote for them again either.


Btw, the British, German and French markets are way up so far today. And America is way up in futures trading plus gold is down.
This silly panic seems to be over after just 2 days (though you never know for certain).
Britain - in the end - will almost certainly be fine without the EU. The EU has more to lose from Brexit then Britain does, IMO.

"Ignoring the mandate" is the spin Schultz and Junker are attempting to build pressure on the UK with and Holland and Frenzi had taken that position also, until the meeting with Merkel.

But nobody was speaking of ignoring the mandate. I said pretty much opposite and would say that the mandate would be a valuable tool in the negotiations to change the EU rules. This is because the EU has so much to lose and the UK can opt to trigger article 50. This would put the EU under pressure to move along lines the allies of UK want and not towards Closer Union favored by EU dinosaurs like the Junkers, Cohn-Bendits and Schultzes. That is why they are so agitated.
 

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The DOW futures are up and so is the FTSE's (Britain's stock market).

Looks like the panic may have ended.

Lets see at the end of the day...and over the next few weeks. The longer the political chaos in the UK continues, the more insecurity there will be in the markets.
 

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The DOW futures are up and so is the FTSE's (Britain's stock market).

Looks like the panic may have ended.
If you believe that the expected waning of an equally expected market hysteria is a sign of market stability now returning, you are to be commended upon your positive thinking but not upon your naiveté. ;)

Things on the markets are far from normal and just as far from returning to that state and as long as there isn't a clear picture signalling certainty that everyone can bank upon, the condition will prevail.
 

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In the next months the EU says it wants to change its constitution in order to reduce the centrifugal forces and further disintegration.

Aint gonna happin.

Nothing, but nothing, gets done in Europe over August. Everybody and his brother are on vacation.

Just talking about a constitution is going to take three years, because there exists no such thing. There was one at the beginning (the 7-state "Common Market") but that has been superannuated by the addition since of a good number of of other countries.

It's easy to "talk about the constitution". Besides, just like Brexit, when you ask "the people" they assume it is a great opportunity to vent their anger. Which is why the French rejected constitutional changes in a vote in 2005. (Tony BLAIR, ex-PM of the UK announced to have a referendum on the "Constitution" and then cancelled it as "non-practicable".)

The constitution of the EU does not exist, but what does exist is a series of treaties mutually signed. See here. The foremost of which is the Maastricht Treaty that defines the Euro.

Any country's parliament can put down the treaties by means of a common vote. But they don't because, for the moment, the EU people see the benefit of keeping the EU as it is.

Still, if anyone is thinking that the EU will return to its origins as a grouping of separate-but-equal countries then they've gone off the deep end. The EU-people, for all their mutual bickering deeply want a European Union that binds them together. The polls consistently come up with this truth, though - in fact - all of the states have a beef with the "EU" management in Barlaymont (Brussels).

However, all those beefs are very different in nature.

Members of the EU have learned their lesson after two World Wars in the last century that decimated Europe - and they do not want that to happen again. Besides, Uncle Sam provides a fine example of a state-union within a Federal concept of governance .

Why should Europeans want anything less ... ?
 

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The upset? Your contention is that even though it look less than 24 hours for the UK to create a new English word "Bregret," that the European politicians take this as a sign to be scared?
They're worried about large amounts of discontent anyway and were so long before Brexit even came onto the table.

Nevertheless the poster you respond to has a problematic relationship to reality that causes somewhat warped perceptions of, as an example, French and Italian Heads of States near soiling themselves with discomfort when meeting with Merkel in Berlin yesterday. Not to mention the delusional understanding that all of Europe is now scared crapless to the point of rushing to reform so as to appease the UK as quickly as possible.

The take of UK indefinitely delaying the invocation of article 50 so that the EU will meanwhile reform itself to the point of making the whole exercise obsolete, is so idiotic that it really requires no further address.

It's generally agreed that there's crap that simply can't be made up. Well, that isn't entirely true, as we can see. Some can. :lol:
 
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