8/15/19
A Fox News poll released Thursday showed President Trump losing head-to-head match-ups against four of the top Democratic presidential primary contenders. The poll found Trump with 39 percent support among registered voters in head-to-head match-ups against Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The poll found Sanders beating Trump with 48 percent, Warren winning over Trump with 45 percent and Harris winning with 46 percent support. Former Vice President Joe Biden, meanwhile, beat Trump in the theoretical match-up with 50 percent support among those surveyed, compared to Trump's 38 percent.
Fox News poll shows Trump losing to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris
Fake News!!! Oh wait............. :lamo
Related: Fox News Poll: Biden still leads Democratic race, Warren climbs into second
Only democrats are active in polling so you are asking democrats who can beat Trump.
Fox News poll shows Trump losing to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris
Fake News!!! Oh wait............. :lamo
Related: Fox News Poll: Biden still leads Democratic race, Warren climbs into second
Fox News poll shows Trump losing to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris
Fake News!!! Oh wait............. :lamo
Related: Fox News Poll: Biden still leads Democratic race, Warren climbs into second
From the Fox poll: Sampling by party affiliation
Dem: 48%
Rep: 42%
Ind: 12%
Fox News Poll, August 14 | Fox News
National Party affiliation according to Gallup:
Dem: 27%
Rep: 29%
Ind: 38%
Party Affiliation | Gallup Historical Trends
Seriously?
I don't know which is worse...that Fox thinks they can get away with this deliberately manipulated poll...or that they actually CAN get away with it.
POLL REJECTED!!
Only democrats are active in polling so you are asking democrats who can beat Trump.
According to the poll, Socialism and free stuff is winning, hands down.
Only democrats are active in polling so you are asking democrats who can beat Trump.
According to the poll, Socialism and free stuff is winning, hands down.
It's complex. For example, if Bernie doesn't win the primary, will the Bernie Bros come out and vote for the democratic president or will the stay home and play video games? Biden isn't promising a lot of free stuff, so the people who want free stuff might not vote.
Fox News poll shows Trump losing to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris
Fake News!!! Oh wait............. :lamo
Related: Fox News Poll: Biden still leads Democratic race, Warren climbs into second
I think Trump's approval numbers aren't based on what he does or doesn't, his policies or stances on issues or even tied to world events. They're tied to his brash persona. His character, his personality, to him personally.
Interestingly, in the head to heads Trump is actually polling below his 43% number and is at 38-39% in these polls.I go by RCP averages which Fox is included.
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Trump Job Approval
Trump has average between 42-44% approval since February 2018, rarely going above or below those figures. His Disapproval has been between 52-54% over that same time period. Nothing he does or doesn't do seems to effect those numbers. Trump is a very polarizing figure. He could bring world peace or plunge us into another great depression, his numbers would still remain steadily in that range.
Never has a president had such constant numbers. Obama ranged, lowest to highest from 38-69, G.W. Bush from 25-90, Bill Clinton 37-73, G.H.W. Bush 29-89 and on back. Their approval/disapproval moved depending on what was going on in the world, their stances on issues, the economy, etc. Not Trump. He has had a low of 37 and a high of 45.
I think Trump's approval numbers aren't based on what he does or doesn't, his policies or stances on issues or even tied to world events. They're tied to his brash persona. His character, his personality, to him personally.
Sure, but I think there is a very small but deadly group of people who silently support Trump, because they think he's responsible for the economy, who don't say so so in these head to heads, largely because they do understand he's a racist.This Fox poll wasn't about approval, but rather how Trump would fare against the four leading Democrat presidential contenders in head-to-head match-ups.
The Fox poll found that if the election were held today, Trump would lose to Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Harris.
Trump is the presidential Rain Man.If Hillary couldn't beat Trump how do you think Biden can.Biden against Trump is like letting Aunt Bea play poker with Clint Eastwood,haha.
This Fox poll wasn't about approval, but rather how Trump would fare against the four leading Democrat presidential contenders in head-to-head match-ups.
The Fox poll found that if the election were held today, Trump would lose to Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Harris.
Interestingly, in the head to heads Trump is actually polling below his 43% number and is at 38-39% in these polls.
I think there's a small 2-4% of conservative voters, who understand Trump is a corrupt racist, but who seem to credit him with the economy. These people are hard to find in polls, but they are definitely there, and the miscalculation Clinton made was that those voters would stay home, when the reality was they had always planned to swallow their pride and quietly vote for him. They still see the guy from the 'Apprentice', who is a financial whiz, and not the pitiful incompetent the rest of us see.It's early. A lot of folks haven't made up their minds or aren't paying attention to possible match ups. This early numbers are a mile wide and an inch thick. My opinion anyway. Here's a bunch more polls to look at.
RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest National General Election Polls
Trump hasn't tried one bit to expand his base, he's totally ignored independents which gave him the white. Your shrinkage is the loss of independent support.
I think there's a small 2-4% of conservative voters, who understand Trump is a corrupt racist, but who seem to credit him with the economy. These people are hard to find in polls, but they are definitely there, and the miscalculation Clinton made was that those voters would stay home, when the reality was they had always planned to swallow their pride and quietly vote for him. They still see the guy from the 'Apprentice', who is a financial whiz, and not the pitiful incompetent the rest of us see.
Much of Trump not expanding his base is, I believe, arrogance. He is - ironically enough - becoming just Clinton, by getting overconfident about 2020. Winning in 2016 has given the entire Republican party big heads, and many of the people who have the greatest influence over Trump, assure him it's "landslide 2020!" for them. They are tone deaf to the fact that they only won because of a perfect storm, and have squandered the power and influence of their incumbency to win again, not understanding that in a battle of the bases, the Democrats have a bigger one.
They need independent far more than the Democrats, but they are tone deaf to that fact.
I think there's a small 2-4% of conservative voters, who understand Trump is a corrupt racist, but who seem to credit him with the economy. These people are hard to find in polls, but they are definitely there, and the miscalculation Clinton made was that those voters would stay home, when the reality was they had always planned to swallow their pride and quietly vote for him. They still see the guy from the 'Apprentice', who is a financial whiz, and not the pitiful incompetent the rest of us see.
Much of Trump not expanding his base is, I believe, arrogance. He is - ironically enough - becoming just Clinton, by getting overconfident about 2020. Winning in 2016 has given the entire Republican party big heads, and many of the people who have the greatest influence over Trump, assure him it's "landslide 2020!" for them. They are tone deaf to the fact that they only won because of a perfect storm, and have squandered the power and influence of their incumbency to win again, not understanding that in a battle of the bases, the Democrats have a bigger one.
They need independent far more than the Democrats, but they are tone deaf to that fact.
Clinton was old news. She was a throwback to the 90's, which nobody was really interested in all that much. Add her FBI investigation and horrible record into the mix, and she was a hot mess. Still, most would have prefered her, but there were a lot of protest votes by Democrats for Stein and Johnson, which added up in the end in a way nobody saw coming. They didn't think "it could happen" when it came to Trump, and that created the perfect storm.Exactly, the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties. If Trump or the GOP don't win the independent vote, they lose the election. Turnout is always a key and it was for 2016. The Democrats had a six point advantage in party affiliation, but only a three point advantage among those who actually turned out to vote.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
The GOP although the smaller party has usually had the higher percentage in the turnout battles. Not the numbers, but percentage wise. Had the Democrats turned out in the same percentage as the Republicans did, Hillary Clinton would be sitting in the White House today. Hillary ran a ho hum campaign and I think that ho humness rubbed off on some of her supporters which didn't go to the polls. Compare her campaign to Trump's, you'll see his supporters although much smaller numbers wise, were full of energy and enthusiasm for him. Willing to go to the four corners of the earth for him. A lot of Hillary's weren't even willing to go to the polls.
Clinton was old news. She was a throwback to the 90's, which nobody was really interested in all that much. Add her FBI investigation and horrible record into the mix, and she was a hot mess. Still, most would have prefered her, but there were a lot of protest votes by Democrats for Stein and Johnson, which added up in the end in a way nobody saw coming. They didn't think "it could happen" when it came to Trump, and that created the perfect storm.
This time will be different. The left will do nowhere near as many protest votes for third parties, breaking towards whoever is the Democrat on the ballot. Making matters worse is if just half of those 4.4 million Obama 2012 voters that sat out 2016 come back.
But still worse than all of that is that in every poll, Trump is way underwater with independent voters, and seldom gets out of the mid 30's. It seems independents are ready for a Democrat, even if the nominee supports single payer, they're willing to look past it - just as they overlooked Trump's position on far-right agenda items. Unless something dramatic happens, Trump is well on track to lose the WH and be defeated.
Still, it ain't over ti' it's over.
Yogi Berra, I love it. Great catcher and I loved to watch him play as a kid. Of course Mantle was my favorite Yankee. Who can ever forget Yogi jumping into Don Larson's arms when he pitched that perfect game in the world series. Man am I old. Great memories though.
Okay, back to business. The third party vote was interesting. 3% of Democrats voted third party, 4% of Republicans voted third party vs. 12% of independents.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
I was surprised that 12% wasn't larger especially when 54% of all independents disliked both major party candidates and didn't want neither one to become their next president.
One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates
What is interesting to me being a numbers guy is CNN did ask the question of third party voters of whom they would have voted for in just a two candidate race, no third party candidates.19% answered Trump, 16% Clinton and a whopping 65% said they wouldn't have voted. So in reality if one believes CNN, the third party vote helped Clinton a bit. Perhaps denying Trump a couple of hundred thousand more votes than what Clinton would have received in just a two candidate race.
I agree on the perfect storm, the earth, moon, the sun, the planets, the solar system and the galaxies all had to align perfectly for Trump to win. Then there were the Sanders supporters. Angry at what they perceived as the DNC and Democratic state party leaders jury rigging the primaries in Hillary's favor. They did vote for Hillary, 75-12 over Trump with 13% voting third party. But compare that to the Democratic base vote of 89-8 Hillary over Trump with just 3% voting third party. Who knows how many Sanders supporters stayed home?
Here's an interesting article from Newsweek about that.
Bernie Sanders Voters Helped Trump Win and Here's Proof
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