Emerson College Poll: Over 60% of undecided voters now favor Kamala Harris

[BrotherFease]

Newsweek article

Kamala Harris has won over 60 percent of undecided voters in the past month, according to a new poll.

Emerson College polling, conducted between October 14 and 16, shows that among undecided voters who chose who they would vote for in the past week or month, 60 percent opted for the Democratic vice president, while 36 percent opted for Republican former President Donald Trump.

It looks like the late-deciders are leaning toward Harris by a 60-40 margin. This is great news for the Harris camp. Not so good for the Trump camp. When I look at the major polls, I see there's between a 2-6% in the undecided group. If this trend continues, then we should see Harris squeaking out victories in the 7 battleground states.

Would do you guys think? Do you think the undecided population will end up voting for Harris or go for Trump? My view is that they will probably go for the unknown commodity, like what they did in 2016.

 

[dseag2]

I think this is great news and I'm not the least bit surprised. Looking at the two rallies side-by-side, there is no comparison. One promoting unity and talking about her policies and the other talking about Arnold Palmer's penis size and swaying to 30 minutes of music because he doesn't want to answer any questions. I'm just surprised it took them this long.

 

[Mycroft]

Newsweek article


It looks like the late-deciders are leaning toward Harris by a 60-40 margin. This is great news for the Harris camp. Not so good for the Trump camp. When I look at the major polls, I see there's between a 2-6% in the undecided group. If this trend continues, then we should see Harris squeaking out victories in the 7 battleground states.

Would do you guys think? Do you think the undecided population will end up voting for Harris or go for Trump? My view is that they will probably go for the unknown commodity, like what they did in 2016.

2-6%

That's a relative handful. I don't think it'll make that much of a different...especially at the state level.

 

[Ikari]

I mean, we'll have to see when the voting is done, but the polls haven't been going Harris' direction.

 

[Mycroft]

Newsweek article


It looks like the late-deciders are leaning toward Harris by a 60-40 margin. This is great news for the Harris camp. Not so good for the Trump camp. When I look at the major polls, I see there's between a 2-6% in the undecided group. If this trend continues, then we should see Harris squeaking out victories in the 7 battleground states.

Would do you guys think? Do you think the undecided population will end up voting for Harris or go for Trump? My view is that they will probably go for the unknown commodity, like what they did in 2016.

I wonder why Newsweek didn't give a link to the Emerson poll.

Anyway...it's a bogus poll.

Sampling by party affiliation:



Gallup:



POLL REJECTED!!!

 

[craig]

It is ALL about getting out the vote. Call your friends and get them off the phone and the couch and go vote.

 

[Phys251]

Newsweek article


It looks like the late-deciders are leaning toward Harris by a 60-40 margin. This is great news for the Harris camp. Not so good for the Trump camp. When I look at the major polls, I see there's between a 2-6% in the undecided group. If this trend continues, then we should see Harris squeaking out victories in the 7 battleground states.

Would do you guys think? Do you think the undecided population will end up voting for Harris or go for Trump? My view is that they will probably go for the unknown commodity, like what they did in 2016.

There's a reason why Harris is reaching out beyond her base, and this is a big part of it.

 

[Parrish]

I mean, we'll have to see when the voting is done, but the polls haven't been going Harris' direction.

A vote for Oliver is a vote for the former guy. Are you good with that?

 

[Geoist]

At this point, what exactly is Trump doing to woo undecideds?

Promising he'd be a dictator on Day 1?

Cosplaying as a McDonald's worker?

Telling stories about a golfer's dick size?

 

[Ikari]

A vote for Oliver is a vote for the former guy. Are you good with that?

Yup

 

[BrotherFease]

I wonder why Newsweek didn't give a link to the Emerson poll.

Anyway...it's a bogus poll.

Sampling by party affiliation:

View attachment 67538701

Gallup:

View attachment 67538702

POLL REJECTED!!!

Let me understand this: You "reject" the poll because Emerson College asked 360 Democrats and 358 Republicans? Are you really upset about a 2 voter difference? The numbers look pretty even to me.

If Trump wants to win the White House, he will have to win the Blue Wall states. These are states which traditionally favor Democrats. And if you look at the U.S Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn, they all show the Democrat leading by at least 4%.

 

[Mycroft]

Let me understand this: You "reject" the poll because Emerson College asked 360 Democrats and 358 Republicans? Are you really upset about a 2 voter difference? The numbers look pretty even to me.

No. It's a bogus poll because they grossly over sampled Republicans and, especially, Democrats and because they grossly under sampled Independents.

They are trying to say that their poll reflects the opinion of the population of the US and they deliberately skew their poll in favor of Democrats.

If Trump wants to win the White House, he will have to win the Blue Wall states. These are states which traditionally favor Democrats. And if you look at the U.S Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn, they all show the Democrat leading by at least 4%.

Irrelevant.

This Emerson poll isn't about states.

 

[gman]

Ho hum. Another daily poll to get people all a Twitter.

 

[BrotherFease]

No. It's a bogus poll because they grossly over sampled Republicans and, especially, Democrats and because they grossly under sampled Independents.

They are trying to say that their poll reflects the opinion of the population of the US and they deliberately skew their poll in favor of Democrats.


Irrelevant.

This Emerson poll isn't about states.

The polling sample was pretty even. Democrats were under sampled in 2022. That red wave never happened.

 

[multivita-man]

I wonder why Newsweek didn't give a link to the Emerson poll.

Anyway...it's a bogus poll.

Sampling by party affiliation:

View attachment 67538701

Gallup:

View attachment 67538702

POLL REJECTED!!!

It's a poll you don't like lol.

All polls have bias, including some that lean Trump.

 

[bongsaway]

Newsweek article


It looks like the late-deciders are leaning toward Harris by a 60-40 margin. This is great news for the Harris camp. Not so good for the Trump camp. When I look at the major polls, I see there's between a 2-6% in the undecided group. If this trend continues, then we should see Harris squeaking out victories in the 7 battleground states.

Would do you guys think? Do you think the undecided population will end up voting for Harris or go for Trump? My view is that they will probably go for the unknown commodity, like what they did in 2016.

I still don't think this election is as close as the media does. Do not underestimate the power of the female vote, the black vote, the Latino vote and every other immigrant vote. Trump is a magnet for the dissatisfied in America, the losers, the angry, the spiteful. Everyone and anyone who thinks they deserve more than they have and blame that fact on others. That is trump's base.

 

[bongsaway]

2-6%

That's a relative handful. I don't think it'll make that much of a different...especially at the state level.

Do you think the ten percent of his voters who will not vote for him again this election make a difference?

 

[bongsaway]

At this point, what exactly is Trump doing to woo undecideds?

Promising he'd be a dictator on Day 1?

Cosplaying as a McDonald's worker?

Telling stories about a golfer's dick size?

All that says to me is how shallow the average GOP voter has become.

 

[bongsaway]

No. It's a bogus poll because they grossly over sampled Republicans and, especially, Democrats and because they grossly under sampled Independents.

They are trying to say that their poll reflects the opinion of the population of the US and they deliberately skew their poll in favor of Democrats.


Irrelevant.

This Emerson poll isn't about states.

It's about Harris is winning and we know how much you can't stand that thought.

 

[BrotherFease]

I still don't think this election is as close as the media does. Do not underestimate the power of the female vote, the black vote, the Latino vote and every other immigrant vote. Trump is a magnet for the dissatisfied in America, the losers, the angry, the spiteful. Everyone and anyone who thinks they deserve more than they have and blame that fact on others. That is trump's base.

I agree— we cannot ignore the evidence of the 2022 midterms.

 

[The AntiDonald]

Newsweek article


It looks like the late-deciders are leaning toward Harris by a 60-40 margin. This is great news for the Harris camp. Not so good for the Trump camp. When I look at the major polls, I see there's between a 2-6% in the undecided group. If this trend continues, then we should see Harris squeaking out victories in the 7 battleground states.

Would do you guys think? Do you think the undecided population will end up voting for Harris or go for Trump? My view is that they will probably go for the unknown commodity, like what they did in 2016.

I agree with your prediction but not with the reason. I believe they will vote for sanity and calm. People are genuinely fed up with the Trump chaos and BS.

For me anyway, this election is no longer about policy. It's about character and morals. Good vs. evil. Very simple choice.

 

[Tangmo]

No. It's a bogus poll because they grossly over sampled Republicans and, especially, Democrats and because they grossly under sampled Independents.

They are trying to say that their poll reflects the opinion of the population of the US and they deliberately skew their poll in favor of Democrats.

Polls are predicated on projected turnout.

How many Republicans, how many Democrats and how many Independents to include cheerfully destructive Independents that will vote third party then break out the popcorn.

Doing projected turnout is a major reason polls vary, although in this election the credible polls do not very greatly. In this election there's a common perception among credible pollsters about turnout by each voting public.

An "outlier" poll is identified by this standard, ie, the typical outlier poll usually includes a different turnout projection -- it may be right or it may be wrong; it's usually wrong however.

Election polling is not based on the population headcount of the US. It's based on voters. There are polls of registered voters only and of "likely voters." Then there's deciding who and what a "likely" voter is.

You don't know anything about polling so sit down. And listen for a change.

 

[Tangmo]

The polling sample was pretty even. Democrats were under sampled in 2022. That red wave never happened.

Yes.

Intensified by Republican pollsters who loaded their results to show a Red Wave that threw off the polling averages. Republicans are doing this now with the polls. They're done this before of course.

 

[Callen]

I'm not surprised, given Trump's erratic behaviour, that undecideds are moving to Harris. Problem is how many are there and more importantly where are they?

 

[Mycroft]

The polling sample was pretty even.

The point of sampling by party affiliation is NOT to equally sample Republicans and Democrats. The point is to sample according to whatever the affiliation numbers exist in the population at the time of the poll.

Gallup presents party affiliation numbers on an ongoing basis. They've been doing it for years. They are the gold standard. That's why I presented their numbers to compare with the sampling from the Emerson poll.

The Emerson poll gets the sampling numbers all wrong and that's why it cannot be considered accurate.

Democrats were under sampled in 2022. That red wave never happened.

Irrelevant.

We are talking about now...not 2022.