Electric Vehicle Sales Are Up in California, but there's a catch...

[PoS]

Electric vehicle sales rise in California. It'''s mostly due to Tesla - Los Angeles Times

But that doesn’t mean a golden age of electric vehicles has dawned. Pure electric cars still total only 5.5% of California car sales. Consumers, for the most part, are shrugging at EV offerings from car companies not named Tesla. And Tesla sales could be topping out.


“California is the largest green market in the country,” said Jessica Caldwell, market analyst at Edmunds. The state accounts for nearly half of the 105,472 pure EVs sold nationwide. “But EVs are still a tough market, even in California.”

Without Tesla, pure EV sales would be limp. About 33,000 Model 3s were sold in California in the first half. The next-highest seller was Chevrolet’s Bolt EV, at 4,482 cars, followed by the Tesla Model X (3,690) and the Tesla Model S (3,390.) The Nissan Leaf sold 2,034 units.


Electric car buyers “don’t seem to be EV fans, they seem to be Tesla fans,” Caldwell said. “It’s been really hard for any other company to crack the code of what people want in an EV.”

Yup, so it seems if you take Tesla out of the equation, then electric car sales really arent what they are hyped up to be. And as the quotes suggests, people dont buy Tesla because they are EVs, but because they are fans of the company.

Reality hurts.

 

[Cardinal]

Electric vehicle sales rise in California. It'''s mostly due to Tesla - Los Angeles Times





Yup, so it seems if you take Tesla out of the equation, then electric car sales really arent what they are hyped up to be. And as the quotes suggests, people dont buy Tesla because they are EVs, but because they are fans of the company.

Reality hurts.

The lack of enthusiasm seems to be due to an irrational fear of range. Better messaging about recharging availability as well as other perks would probably lead to a change in consumer choices.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Electric vehicle sales rise in California. It'''s mostly due to Tesla - Los Angeles Times





Yup, so it seems if you take Tesla out of the equation, then electric car sales really arent what they are hyped up to be. And as the quotes suggests, people dont buy Tesla because they are EVs, but because they are fans of the company.

Reality hurts.

Until now only Tesla offered cars that were worth the price in terms of performance and luxury. The Chevy Volt had/has near Model 3 prices with the performance and luxury of a Chevy Cruize. The Nissan Leaf is a electrified Versa hatchback at much higher prices. Tesla went about it the right away, as battery prices are expensive, make the rest of the car worth the higher price. German companies are starting to produce cars in the same category (luxury performance) so Tesla will have some competition. Until battery prices come down, to where a mid market family mid size sedan or SUV can be priced close to the price of a Rav4 or Camry electric cars will be a niche product at the low end by EV supporters and at the upper end by people who like them because they can be good vehicles (and that the owner probably has multiple vehicles in their garage)

 

[OrphanSlug]

The lack of enthusiasm seems to be due to an irrational fear of range. Better messaging about recharging availability as well as other perks would probably lead to a change in consumer choices.

That "irrational fear of range" is neither irrational or a misrepresentation of what EV vehicles can do so far. No matter what Tesla or anyone else hypes up in this regard for recharging, technology still has some improving to do in order to have an EV car act like a gas (or a hybrid) on a long range trip.

 

[bluesmoke]

Eventually, there will be conversion to EV. Hybrids until then, and for many yrs. It will require govt subsidy to get more recharge stations and vehicle purchase. That's how coal and oil got started and oil still gets. Up our ying-yang. Many of y'all can kick and scream along the way. But that's where it's going. Same thing with renewable energy. Inevitable. Govt subsidized.

 

[Drawdown]

If everybody switches the electric cars, then the government will be replacing the gas tax that you will be paying on your electric bills whether you are charging your car, washing your clothes, or microwaving some popcorn.

 

[Cardinal]

That "irrational fear of range" is neither irrational or a misrepresentation of what EV vehicles can do so far. No matter what Tesla or anyone else hypes up in this regard for recharging, technology still has some improving to do in order to have an EV car act like a gas (or a hybrid) on a long range trip.

Most Americans use their cars for basic commuting and errands functions, which EV cars are more than up to the task for what with the incredibly widespread availability of recharge stations in just about every populated area in California (not the least of which is one's own home), and with average ranges of newer EV's being 150-200 miles. Most families have more than one car, so for the rarer long range trips through particularly unpopulated areas, it makes the most sense right now for families to own one EV and one hybrid.

And even for road trips, there are very few drives that will leave you stranded. I could go from Los Angeles to Las Vegas with enough recharge stations in between to meet my needs. That's a drive through sizable tracts of desert, if you're not already familiar with that route. I could also get to San Diego, San Francisco and Reno.

So, yes, fear of range is largely irrational right now, and that's a messaging problem. Also, how many Californians know that driving an EV gives you access to the carpool lane?

 

[Cardinal]

That "irrational fear of range" is neither irrational or a misrepresentation of what EV vehicles can do so far. No matter what Tesla or anyone else hypes up in this regard for recharging, technology still has some improving to do in order to have an EV car act like a gas (or a hybrid) on a long range trip.

And for those timid of heart, you can use an EV trip planner to make sure you can actually get to where you want to go. At this time, the only trips I wouldn't advise are through really large mountain ranges and deserts (like Death Valley). But if you're going from populated area to populated area, you'll be fine.

A Better Routeplanner
Open Charge Map

 

[Jay59]

We are still at leat one generation from competitive EV. They buyers are paying substantially more than a comparable petrofuel car. When that changes, the whole industry will change rapidly.

 

[Harshaw]

That "irrational fear of range" is neither irrational or a misrepresentation of what EV vehicles can do so far. No matter what Tesla or anyone else hypes up in this regard for recharging, technology still has some improving to do in order to have an EV car act like a gas (or a hybrid) on a long range trip.

Most Americans use their cars for basic commuting and errands functions, which EV cars are more than up to the task for what with the incredibly widespread availability of recharge stations in just about every populated area in California (not the least of which is one's own home), and with average ranges of newer EV's being 150-200 miles. Most families have more than one car, so for the rarer long range trips through particularly unpopulated areas, it makes the most sense right now for families to own one EV and one hybrid.


And even for road trips, there are very few drives that will leave you stranded. I could go from Los Angeles to Las Vegas with enough recharge stations in between to meet my needs. That's a drive through sizable tracts of desert, if you're not already familiar with that route. I could also get to San Diego, San Francisco and Reno.


So, yes, fear of range is largely irrational right now, and that's a messaging problem. Also, how many Californians know that driving an EV gives you access to the carpool lane?

What is by no means irrational is the ratio of length of time it takes to charge a car to the miles you get from the drive. It takes about an hour at a Tesla supercharger station, and can take 10 or more hours from a home charger -- almost 90 if you're charging from a regular wall outlet.

For 150-200 miles of drive.

It is definitely not there yet.

 

[Cardinal]

We are still at leat one generation from competitive EV. They buyers are paying substantially more than a comparable petrofuel car. When that changes, the whole industry will change rapidly.

Price difference doesn't account for the low percentage of EV owners. Two-thirds of Americans would pay more for an EV than for a gas-powered vehicle. At such a high percentage, you should see a crap load more EV's on the road than a measly 5.5%.

This is down to a messaging problem.

http://www.oregon.aaa.com/content/uploads/2019/05/EV-Consumer-Survey-Fact-Sheet-FINAL-4-23-19.pdf

 

[Media_Truth]

We are still at leat one generation from competitive EV. They buyers are paying substantially more than a comparable petrofuel car. When that changes, the whole industry will change rapidly.

I have a 2018 Volt, which is a Plug-In hybrid. I purchased the car for $32K, and got a $6500 Federal Tax Credit and a $5000 State Tax Credit, which put the cost as low as just about any new car, and yet I'm driving in luxury. I'm getting about 50 miles, on all-electric. It's a great car, and won the 2017 car of the year. Unfortunately, GM is discontinuing the vehicle to focus on all-electric. I very seldom purchase gas, averaging only about $5 per month, despite driving about 800 miles per month. My solar PVs and residential wind turbine do most of the charging.

I think the $6500 Federal tax credit is still 100% available, if you purchase a Plug-In this year.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

What is by no means irrational is the ratio of length of time it takes to charge a car to the miles you get from the drive. It takes about an hour at a Tesla supercharger station, and can take 10 or more hours from a home charger -- almost 90 if you're charging from a regular wall outlet.

For 150-200 miles of drive.

It is definitely not there yet.

In a two or multiple car family, in which one or both are capable of taking long trips with the family, an electric car and a IC vehicle can work very well, with no need for range being an issue. I expect the majority of households in the US have two vehicles so one could be replaced easily by an EV in most of the cases

 

[Harshaw]

In a two or multiple car family, in which one or both are capable of taking long trips with the family, an electric car and a IC vehicle can work very well, with no need for range being an issue. I expect the majority of households in the US have two vehicles so one could be replaced easily by an EV in most of the cases

In the majority of households I'm aware of, both cars are used daily, so charge time is a daily issue, or at least nearso.

In any case, you're still saying EVs aren't there yet, because you wouldn't take that car on a long trip. I definitely wouldn't, knowing I'd have to stop for at least an hour every 2-3 hours.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Most Americans use their cars for basic commuting and errands functions, which EV cars are more than up to the task for what with the incredibly widespread availability of recharge stations in just about every populated area in California (not the least of which is one's own home), and with average ranges of newer EV's being 150-200 miles. Most families have more than one car, so for the rarer long range trips through particularly unpopulated areas, it makes the most sense right now for families to own one EV and one hybrid.

And even for road trips, there are very few drives that will leave you stranded. I could go from Los Angeles to Las Vegas with enough recharge stations in between to meet my needs. That's a drive through sizable tracts of desert, if you're not already familiar with that route. I could also get to San Diego, San Francisco and Reno.

So, yes, fear of range is largely irrational right now, and that's a messaging problem. Also, how many Californians know that driving an EV gives you access to the carpool lane?

And for those timid of heart, you can use an EV trip planner to make sure you can actually get to where you want to go. At this time, the only trips I wouldn't advise are through really large mountain ranges and deserts (like Death Valley). But if you're going from populated area to populated area, you'll be fine.

A Better Routeplanner
Open Charge Map

None of the above is changing sentiment on general use of EV cars, despite how right you may think you are.

At this point the only way around the *actual results* of EV car sales to date is forced market controls for passenger cars available, because your "messaging problem" could have been solved a long way back if it were that simple.

Enjoy the hollow victory lap, the EV car sales to date and perhaps the reasoning for why sales are what they are speaks for itself.

 

[Cardinal]

In a two or multiple car family, in which one or both are capable of taking long trips with the family, an electric car and a IC vehicle can work very well, with no need for range being an issue. I expect the majority of households in the US have two vehicles so one could be replaced easily by an EV in most of the cases

Yup. As I said, it's completely reasonable for every household to have one EV and one hybrid. The latter addresses more the convenience of most road trips than the possibility of them.

 

[Cardinal]

None of the above is changing sentiment on general use of EV cars, despite how right you may think you are.

At this point the only way around the *actual results* of EV car sales to date is forced market controls for passenger cars available, because your "messaging problem" could have been solved a long way back if it were that simple.

Enjoy the hollow victory lap, the EV car sales to date and perhaps the reasoning for why sales are what they are speaks for itself.

None of the above is changing sentiment because a public messaging campaign hasn't been done in the first place. Unless people actively pursue the idea of purchasing an EV, most Americans really don't know about the perks and range of EV's. They're largely unaware that there are enough powering stations to get them from one populated area to another (without unusual detours like Death Valley or large mountain ranges), that ranges are often in the 200 mile territory, and that EV's give them access to HOV lanes.

And as a regular commute and errand vehicle? Forgetaboutit. There's just no issue at all on that point.

Are EV's equal to the convenience of a gas powered vehicle? Of course not, and I never argued otherwise. But when you look at the facts EV's are nowhere near as inconvenient as people assume they are.

 

[Harshaw]

Yup. As I said, it's completely reasonable for every household to have one EV and one hybrid. The latter addresses more the convenience of most road trips than the possibility of them.

Well, if your vehicle makes your road trip inconvenient, you're far less likely to want to take it on one, and thus, it is a far less appealing choice.

It's possible to go on a road trip with a horse and buggy. But "possible" isn't really the measure.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

In the majority of households I'm aware of, both cars are used daily, so charge time is a daily issue, or at least nearso.

In any case, you're still saying EVs aren't there yet, because you wouldn't take that car on a long trip.

Newer EV's have 150 miles of range at the low end, and a good charging system (not 120 V,) can charge an EV in 3-4 hrs (some much faster). So for families that do have multiple vehicles they can work.

As a primary and only vehicle for most people in the US and Canada (outside of NYC and area) it likely is not there if they want to travel intercity with them. I would not want to take one on a vacation or long distance drive. It would not work for me as a vehicle as I do regularly drive 380 miles for work 2 days out of 10, and that takes 6 hrs with an IC, I expect I would be looking at 10 hrs with an EV. For my wife an EC would work quite well, she works about 12 miles from home, we have a garage in which a charger could be installed, and only once has her car been needed for a drive longer than 100 miles. In Europe and east asia EV's would work for the primary vehicle for most as the vast majority of trips are in the city and intercity travel is best done on a great network of trains

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Yup. As I said, it's completely reasonable for every household to have one EV and one hybrid. The latter addresses more the convenience of most road trips than the possibility of them.

The next Toyota Tundra is expected to use a hybrid system similar to that from the Lexus LS. That would be a pickup I would probably like. Gas mileage should be very good. The current Tundra has very poor mileage, while my F150 is getting 23 mpg

 

[Media_Truth]

In the majority of households I'm aware of, both cars are used daily, so charge time is a daily issue, or at least nearso.

In any case, you're still saying EVs aren't there yet, because you wouldn't take that car on a long trip. I definitely wouldn't, knowing I'd have to stop for at least an hour every 2-3 hours.

The average commute for a vehicle in the US is 29 miles. Electric Vehicles are now getting between 200 and 300 miles on a charge. Do you really think it's going to be an issue to plug it in overnight once in a while?

As for long car trips, there are many options. Superchargers, overnight charging, non-driving trips. I prefer the train. Relax, enjoy the scenery, walk around, sit down for a nice catered meal, fully recline (with or without a more pricey sleeper car) for a relaxing overnight sleep.

 

[Harshaw]

Newer EV's have 150 miles of range at the low end, and a good charging system (not 120 V,) can charge an EV in 3-4 hrs (some much faster). So for families that do have multiple vehicles they can work.

Which ones can be charged in 3-4 hours, and which "much faster"?

https://www.clippercreek.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Time-to-Charge-Chart-20190509_Final.jpg

My understanding is that the Tesla Supercharger will charge in an hour, as I mentioned earlier. But who's going to install a Supercharger at their home? For the most part, you're talking about running from 240V or 120V and then you're talking 10 hours or more.

As a primary and only vehicle for most people in the US and Canada (outside of NYC and area) it likely is not there if they want to travel intercity with them. I would not want to take one on a vacation or long distance drive. It would not work for me as a vehicle as I do regularly drive 380 miles for work 2 days out of 10, and that takes 6 hrs with an IC, I expect I would be looking at 10 hrs with an EV. For my wife an EC would work quite well, she works about 12 miles from home, we have a garage in which a charger could be installed, and only once has her car been needed for a drive longer than 100 miles. In Europe and east asia EV's would work for the primary vehicle for most as the vast majority of trips are in the city and intercity travel is best done on a great network of trains

Sure, if you don't drive much, and only go short distances when you do, then it'll work for you. But I don't think that's most people. It's definitely not most people in the US.

There's still a ways to go here. Until certain things are cracked, EV penetration will remain low.

 

[Cardinal]

The average commute for a vehicle in the US is 29 miles. Electric Vehicles are now getting between 200 and 300 miles on a charge. Do you really think it's going to be an issue to plug it in overnight once in a while?

As for long car trips, there are many options. Superchargers, overnight charging, non-driving trips. I prefer the train. Relax, enjoy the scenery, walk around, sit down for a nice catered meal, fully recline (with or without a more pricey sleeper car) for a relaxing overnight sleep.

There are also lots of households with one city car and one country car. Having one short range car (EV) and one long range car (hybrid) isn't an argument against EV's. It's just a demonstration of the principle that different vehicles are made for different functions, as they always have been.

My Prius can drive in the country. It's obviously not made for the task, and there are definitely limitations to what kind of terrain it can handle, but I can do it. Likewise, an EV isn't made for long distance traveling, and there are inconveniences associated with using it for that purpose, but it can do it.

But some people are contemptuous of EV's because they can't do everything that every other car can, as if any car was ever ideal for every purpose.

 

[Harshaw]

The average commute for a vehicle in the US is 29 miles. Electric Vehicles are now getting between 200 and 300 miles on a charge. Do you really think it's going to be an issue to plug it in overnight once in a while?

How many people do you know of whose daily driving consists ONLY of their commute? How about with families?

As for long car trips, there are many options. Superchargers, overnight charging, non-driving trips.

With a supercharger, and assuming your high end of 300 miles, you're still talking about stopping for an hour every 4 or so hours.

I prefer the train. Relax, enjoy the scenery, walk around, sit down for a nice catered meal, fully recline (with or without a more pricey sleeper car) for a relaxing overnight sleep.

Good for you. But that's irrelevant. Most people aren't you, and they want a car which does what they want it to do, not one that forces them to change what they do in order to accommodate it.

 

[Harshaw]

There are also lots of households with one city car and one country car. Having one short range car (EV) and one long range car (hybrid) isn't an argument against EV's.

I didn't make an argument "against EVs." I said they aren't there yet, which explains the slow market penetration, the topic of the thread.