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Drop the US Dollar - the Economic Nuclear Option. Is It Time?

Evilroddy

Evilroddy

Pragmatic, pugilistic, prancing, porcine politico.
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Is it time for countries around the globe to work in concert and to simultaneously drop the US dollar as the Petro-dollar and the global reserve currency, with a mind to crippling the US economy for years to come?

Such a move would gut the value of the US dollar as a massive oversupply of unwanted US Dollars would exist. This would drop the value of the dollar precipitously and implode the US economy from within while sending US debt servicing charges for the monumentally high US aggregate debt through the roof. It would prevent Mr. Trump and the Congress from being able to give US elites the huge tax cuts which he has promised them and would turn the US population including millions who voted for Mr. Trump against him and the Republic/MAGA Party. It would make spending trillions on military and security very hard to do. It would demoralise and anger the US citizenry which would blame Mr. Trump for provoking this response to his attack on global trade. The US would be so preoccupied putting fires out at home (both political/economic metaphorical fires and literal fires from rioting) that talk of taking Greenland or the Panama Canal and threatening foreign states would likely be on hold as we all know a besieged Mr. Trump and his authoritarian backers will use the what part of the US Military they can muster to their service to violently enforce his will in America and this will start pitting Americans against Americans. Hopefully this will cause military mutinies and confrontations between state National Guards and pro-Trump US Military forces and America will be neutered for a considerable time while the rest of the world regroups and tries to salvage the global trading system while building up military strength to resist America in the future.

So Dump the US Dollar and thus put Mr. Trump's back to the wall until angry Americans deal with him once and for all?

What say you?

Be well but not too safe - you've got hard work ahead of you American citizens.
Evilroddy.
 
While I'd say Trump's actions are definitely cause to accelerate/catalyze a move away from USD to the Euro, I wouldn't abandon hope, and the USD, until after the midterms at least, assuming America incredibly retains/expands the Republican majority.
 

So short term pain and long term gain.

I'm sure the markets would respond well to your advice. How many thousands of points do we have to tolerate them going down while your plan works?

Taking out the country that every other country needs to run a surplus with will help the rest of the world wonderfully.

I mean who else will take up all that demand and consumption. Please tell us.
 

The whole point of these tariffs is to force Americans to stop consuming foreign-manufactured products and induce American companies to re-shore their industrial plant here in the United States so Americans will buy American manufactured goods. Why would anyone stick around when we are telling them we want a breakup?
 

Hmm… if the US is only taxed (tariffed) 10% less than country X then it may be more profitable to relocate production to country X than to the US.
 

I posted something similar a few weeks back before the tariff crazy really got going. It is a serious option if the rest of the world wants to weaken the US. I don't think though that we are at that stage yet. Weakening the US isn't really helping anyone much unless they completely stop trading with the US and just want retribution for what the US has caused. However, I believe that China and Japan have both been reducing their US$ holdings even pre-tariff war. Both are traditionally large holders of US debt, so if they are reducing their holdings at the same time as other countries are becoming nervous about letting the US hold their money, then it might produce some interesting issues for the federal govt when they need to issue new debt and rollover existing debt. Last time I checked there wasn't a huge amount of debt to rollover in 2025, but I think the number was substantially higher in 2026. If we go into 2026 with traditional large debt holders reducing their exposure to USD's, and other countries also nervous about both the idea of having the US govt holding their funds, and the risk now associated with the USD and a potential collapse in it's value, we could see a lot of new money being printed. Especially if we are in a recession and the govt is throwing money at it to prop up Trumps popularity before the mid terms. There could be a lot of pressure on interest rates.

Unusually for me, I don't have a strong opinion on what might happen with all this yet. Too many moving parts and too many out of control personalities. I have however taken a 2 to 5 year bet on the USD weakening against certain currencies, and I am pretty comfortable that is going to pay well. Maybe, like these current market drops, much better than I originally forecast, and possibly much earlier as well.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
Hmm… if the US is only taxed (tariffed) 10% less than country X then it may be more profitable to relocate production to country X than to the US.
Click to expand...
That's a good point. The trouble however for any company looking at shifting production is that the US govt is now the wild west. A company might do as you suggest and shift production to a country with a 10% tariff on the basis that it is still cheaper than manufacturing in the US. Say maybe shifting production from the EU to the UK with it's 10% tariffs. The moment Trump sees that though he might just up the tariff on the UK, leaving the company having wasted all the money invested in the shift. On the other hand, if they shift production to the US, a change in president, or even maybe a deep and enduring recession caused by the tariffs coupled with public rioting etc could see the tariffs all changed again, and that US factory you just invested in is now not competitive against the one you left behind in Vietnam or Korea etc.

Bottom line is that when a govt creates chaos, businesses turn very conservative with their investments. We might see a lot of talk about new US factories etc etc to appease Trump, but it will be interesting to see how quickly companies truly put their money where their appeasement is.
 
Felis Leo said:
The whole point of these tariffs is to force Americans to stop consuming foreign-manufactured products and induce American companies to re-shore their industrial plant here in the United States so Americans will buy American manufactured goods.
Click to expand...
While that is one point, it's not the "whole point" of the tariffs.

Felis Leo said:
Why would anyone stick around when we are telling them we want a breakup?
Click to expand...
Because the US is STILL the world's largest consumer market.
 
I'm thinking donalds imbecilic actions could very well lead to the quick death of dollar hegemony.
If the World drops the petro-dollar, I fear our currency will drown in a sea of hyperinflation.
Yet, here we are.
With all the morons dancing around chanting "♫ we owned the libs, we owned the libs♫"

These morons don't even know what dollar hegemony is.

And donald.....

Donald has no idea what he's f___ing with.

I fear it's all gunna come to a head very soon.
 
The UE was created to maintain the Peace, to establish and maintain Respect between the nations, to create an fair trade, and to reinforce our transatlantic friendship.

Donald Trump et Elon Musk are plunging The American Science in an indescribable chaos, and .. of course, also the same for Europe.

We don’t understand why he has been chosen as a president. He has such a sickly and pathological self-sufficiency, so that more and more people have the impression that he is beginning to become the … -American Poutin-.

More and more people decide not to buy anymore American products, I personally wanted to buy a Tesla this year, that’s finished now, it must be a French electric car.

More and more countries are voting for additional laws to “ANSWER” these ridiculous tax measures, as set up for Brazil, all European countries, China, etc.

It is of course normal that all other countries vote for a reciprocity. This will of course have a very negative influence on the American industry, production and international trade.

What chocked many people was his positive behaviour with Poutin. Poutin who started the awful and unhuman war in Ukraine.

Even Australia declared that Trump’s commercial decisions are abnormal and will damage the relations between them.

All this becomes unacceptable and the world is wondering why the American people voted for this person. More and more trade and stock exchange actions in the USA are falling dow.

It’s already clear, in this commercial war everybody, USA included, will be losers.

We are noticing that in the USA more and more people are against these Trump’ decisions.

In Europe more and more people are creating personal lists of American products, and check this while they are in a supermarket etc and NOT to buy these.

I admit, I do the same thing, because of these ridiculous decisions of Trump.
 
faithful said:
American Poutin-.
Click to expand...
Well said.
Donald is definitely Americas "mess".
Id hoped we'd of been able to clean this mess up before too much damage was done.
I see now, that is not going to happen.
 
All your comment tells us is that you are happy with Globalists controlling your economy.

But there are a lot of French citizens...particularly your farmers...who are not all that happy.

btw, here is an interesting story I saw recently...
​

"I don't give a damn about what Macron says": these big French bosses outraged by the call to suspend investments in the United States​

​
The President of the Republic received about fifty business leaders on Wednesday to ask them to suspend their investments in the United States. Mohammed Badra / via REUTERS​
The presidential injunction, the day after Trump's announcement of 20% tariffs on imports from Europe, did not convince the large groups that have projects in Uncle Sam's country to stop everything.​
"Some of us fell out of our chairs," confided one of the 50 or so French business leaders invited late Thursday afternoon to the Élysée Palace. The day after Donald Trump's announcement of 20% tariffs on imports from Europe, the injunction of the President of the Republic to suspend all investment projects in the United States has taken French big bosses aback.​
"We are not in an administered economy," thunders the leader of an employers' movement. And the CEO of a CAC 40 giant bluntly asserts: "I don't give a damn about what Macron says. We have activities in the United States. There is no question of abandoning them just like that. We must respect our commitments to our employees, our customers and our shareholders." An opinion shared by a manager of a spirits producer: "It is out of the question to stop investing in the United States, especially in the current economic slump."​

«Ce que dit Macron, je n’en ai rien à cirer»: ces grands patrons français ulcérés par l’appel à suspendre les investissements aux États-Unis

L’injonction présidentielle, au lendemain de l’annonce par Trump de droits de douane de 20% sur les importations en provenance d’Europe, n’a pas convaincu les grands groupes qui ont des projets au pays de l’Oncle Sam de tout stopper.
www.lefigaro.fr
​

It appears that French business leaders understand reality better than your President.
 
trumptman said:
So short term pain and long term gain.

I'm sure the markets would respond well to your advice. How many thousands of points do we have to tolerate them going down while your plan works?
Click to expand...
Trumptman:

The markets are a tool to hobble the Trump Administration permanently. That is the purpose and that is the goal - regime change.
trumptman said:
Taking out the country that every other country needs to run a surplus with will help the rest of the world wonderfully.
Click to expand...
We all outside the USA will do quite a bit better without Trump's America throwing economic warfare grenades into our economies. No country on the Earth trusts Mr. Trump's word anymore so his agreements will be futile and his ability to secure new loans to service US debt will fail too.
trumptman said:
I mean who else will take up all that demand and consumption. Please tell us.
Click to expand...
In the absence of American economic (and military) hegemony and American destructive capitalism there will be more pie to share and compete civilly for. By raising wealth around the globe global aggregate demand will increase and opportunities will grow over time. But the key is to hamstring Trumpian ideology and drive MAGA from power, permanently.

Be well.
Evilroddy.
 



That appears to be unfolding in the Vietnam case. Vietnam has offered to remove its tariffs, but the US says it may not be enough; that China may outflank the tariffs on it by routing through Vietnam.


 
Mycroft said:
While that is one point, it's not the "whole point" of the tariffs.
Click to expand...
Mycroft:

Why don't you post a final and complete list of the goals of the Trump tariff policy, so we don't have to see you make stuff up and move goal posts all the time.
Mycroft said:
Because the US is STILL the world's largest consumer market.
Click to expand...
If your currency collapses and you default on debts payments, then your market will be a paper tiger economically and we can make up the difference.

Trump is already beginning to waver with another launch of a trial balloon promising another pause. The purpose of this strategy to dump the US dollar is not to scare Mr. Trump and get him to pause but to end him politically permanently and to economically hamstring America for a long time. You launch an economic war against everyone else on this planet, then expect to be punished for decades, starting with the forced collapse of your economy and the domestic domestic chaos which follows from that.

Actions have consequences.. Please don't now go into a threat flurry of military action. Trump launched this trade war and the world should respond according by economic means. We don't want your currency anymore, we don't want your exports anymore and we will trade with each other towards greater prosperity without you too. If you begin a campaign of piracy and military domination, then that is another debate for another thread.

Evilroddy.
 
Mycroft said:
While that is one point, it's not the "whole point" of the tariffs.


Because the US is STILL the world's largest consumer market.
Click to expand...

The biggest consumer market that will only be for American-based companies to sell to.
 
Only in modern day America would an electorate ignore a split ticket voting strategy and hand an idiot and his minions the presidency and both houses of Congress. I still can't believe it. Hyperinflation for you and stagflation for us will be the price of that folly it seems.

Be well and be safe.
Evilroddy.
 
Faithful:

Oui. c'est tellement triste et totalement incompréhensible que cela soit arrivé. (Yes, it's truly sad and totally incomprehensible that this has happened.)

Santé et portez-vous bien. (Cheers and be well. - (sort of ))
Evilroddy.
 
Evilroddy said:
Mycroft:

Why don't you post a final and complete list of the goals of the Trump tariff policy, so we don't have to see you make stuff up and move goal posts all the time.
Click to expand...
I already have. Perhaps you haven't seen it. Here you go.

​
​
​
​

The international will isn't there.​
​
This is what will happen to leaders of countries who try to attack the US economically...​

"I don't give a damn about what Macron says": these big French bosses outraged by the call to suspend investments in the United States​

The presidential injunction, the day after Trump's announcement of 20% tariffs on imports from Europe, did not convince the large groups that have projects in Uncle Sam's country to stop everything.​
​
"Some of us fell out of our chairs," confided one of the 50 or so French business leaders invited late Thursday afternoon to the Élysée Palace. The day after Donald Trump's announcement of 20% tariffs on imports from Europe, the injunction of the President of the Republic to suspend all investment projects in the United States has taken French big bosses aback.​
​
"We are not in an administered economy," thunders the leader of an employers' movement. And the CEO of a CAC 40 giant bluntly asserts: "I don't give a damn about what Macron says. We have activities in the United States. There is no question of abandoning them just like that. We must respect our commitments to our employees, our customers and our shareholders." An opinion shared by a manager of a spirits producer: "It is out of the question to stop investing in the United States, especially in the current economic slump."​

​

«Ce que dit Macron, je n’en ai rien à cirer»: ces grands patrons français ulcérés par l’appel à suspendre les investissements aux États-Unis

L’injonction présidentielle, au lendemain de l’annonce par Trump de droits de douane de 20% sur les importations en provenance d’Europe, n’a pas convaincu les grands groupes qui ont des projets au pays de l’Oncle Sam de tout stopper.
www.lefigaro.fr
 
It's crazy. Everybody knows that America is little more than a steaming dog turd on the sidewalk of the world but these lunatics still cling to the USD like it's worth something. America no longer has anything to offer the world so the world MUST abandon the USA.
 
Felis Leo said:
The biggest consumer market that will only be for American-based companies to sell to.
Click to expand...
Nonsense.

The US will still buy stuff from other countries...but it'll be under a level playing field.
 
Mycroft said:
I already have. Perhaps you haven't seen it. Here you go.

​
​
​
Click to expand...
Mycroft:

Commit to a list literal list which can be checked and avoid the vague babble of Bessent which is as mutable as your stuff.
le figaro is behind a paywall, thanks for that.

As to the will, we shall see. Additional 50% tariffs on China is a mighty powerful shot in the arm to the idea of dumping the US Dollar as a global path forward. If Mr. Trump waivers he's dead politically domestically. If he holds his position then that will be the hill that the American economy has a coronary on. Either way we will soon be rid of him if we stay calm and knuckle punch the US economy in its most vulnerable point.

Evilroddy.
 
Lutherf:

In a sense I agree but Mr. Trump initiated the crazy. Now when dealing with crazy leaders do crazy, crazy policy is required.

Be well.
Evilroddy
 
Evilroddy said:
Mycroft:

Commit to a list literal list which can be checked and avoid the vague babble of Bessent which is as mutable as your stuff.
Click to expand...
shrug...

Watch the two videos and make your own list.

Evilroddy said:
le figaro is behind a paywall, thanks for that.
Click to expand...
I quoted the important part.

Yes. We shall see.

But you can be sure we won't see what YOU want to see.
 
Mycroft said:
Nonsense.

The US will still buy stuff from other countries...but it'll be under a level playing field.
Click to expand...
Mycroft:

Hmm, "under a level playing field" not on it? Are you planning to bury the bodies there? Mr. Freud want's his slip back. He needs to lend it to J. Edgar Hoover!

Be well.
Evilroddy.
 
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