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Democrats overperform by 8-9% in VA-11 US House Special Election in Northern Virginia.

Tender Branson

Tender Branson

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Overperforming by 8-9% relative to 2024 is a really good sign for Dems, because Harris already won Virginia by 6 in a national Trump-win.

This puts Abigail Spanberger on track for a solid double-digit win in November for Governor and Ds might win everything else too up for election: Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Virginia legislature.
 
Did the (R) candidate have Trump’s endorsement?
 
There are 3 other special elections scheduled for US House:

2 in heavily D districts in Arizona (late September) and in Texas (in November).

1 in a heavily R district in Tennessee (in early December).

None of them will flip parties … so the US House composition will remain the same as after the 2024 elections:

220 R
215 D
 
Tender Branson said:
75% D
25% R

www.nytimes.com

Virginia 11th Congressional District Special Election Results 2025: Walkinshaw vs. Whitson

Get live results and maps from the 2025 Virginia special congressional election.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Harris won this district by 66-31 and the previous D House Representative (who died) by 67-33.

en.wikipedia.org

Virginia's 11th congressional district - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...


It's been solidly Democrat since 2006.

I doubt Trump can reverse that trend now. Maybe two years ago, but now he's yesterday's left over toast.
 
Tender Branson said:
The shooting of Charlie Kirk could probably have an influence on the elections in November, because the up-until-now de-motivated Republicans could turn out more.
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More likely to have the opposite effect.

Trump is free falling. He's taking his party with him.
 
While it gives me hope, it kinda makes me mad how reactive these special elections are.

Now the GOP hold all the levers of power they're going to make elections harder and cement their minority rule. We've seen it coming for years but people don't react till the tariffs start to bite it seems.
 
Fearandloathing said:
It's been solidly Democrat since 2006.

I doubt Trump can reverse that trend now. Maybe two years ago, but now he's yesterday's left over toast.
Click to expand...

This seat only exists since the 2022 election, in its current shape.

Districts always get gerrymandered after each census, the last one was in 2020.

But otherwise you are correct: the US House seats up for special election this year are all heavily partisan and won’t change parties.
 
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