Daily death count to decrease around April 5th in the US

[Rickeroo]

Mean incubation period 5 days, first symptom to death 14 days. Those dying today, March 18th, were exposed Feb 29th, give or take. They were exposed based on the lockdown conditions at the time, or lack thereof.

Italy started to clamp down from March 8th to 11th, limiting the exposure vector. Therefore, the people that die in Italy starting around March 27th should be reduced, since that date represents the first batch of people who would have been exposed with limited vector. If that happens, then we can be confident that the US will also have a decrease in deaths starting around April 5th. This represents 19 days after the infection vector was significantly reduced.

In the meantime, prepare for some death numbers not quite as bad as Italy, but certainly enough to get the press rocking. 500 Italian deaths translates to 2500 American deaths, due to the population difference.

 

[ClaraD]

Mean incubation period 5 days, first symptom to death 14 days. Those dying today, March 18th, were exposed Feb 29th, give or take. They were exposed based on the lockdown conditions at the time, or lack thereof.

Italy started to clamp down from March 8th to 11th, limiting the exposure vector. Therefore, the people that die in Italy starting around March 27th should be reduced, since that date represents the first batch of people who would have been exposed with limited vector. If that happens, then we can be confident that the US will also have a decrease in deaths starting around April 5th. This represents 19 days after the infection vector was significantly reduced.

In the meantime, prepare for some death numbers not quite as bad as Italy, but certainly enough to get the press rocking. 500 Italian deaths translates to 2500 American deaths, due to the population difference.

We aren't on clamp down...have you seen the beaches in Florida? The grocery stores? The airport? Hell today downtown Charleston and not a damn soul respecting social distance...Broward court house had to be ordered to shut down..they were holding court with prisoners all close to each other

 

[Mongidig]

That's why draconian measures will have to be put into place. Humans can't be trusted to do the right thing.

 

[Rickeroo]

We aren't on clamp down...have you seen the beaches in Florida? The grocery stores? The airport? Hell today downtown Charleston and not a damn soul respecting social distance...Broward court house had to be ordered to shut down..they were holding court with prisoners all close to each other

This may be partly due to my own observations - with take out ice cream today, people in line were 6 feet away. Schools in MA are closed. The cars in town during my run were down about 80%, and there were lots of people walking around. There were two guys in a driveway lifting weights (not at work), which I've never seen before. As the daily death toll mounts, people will gradually clamp down more. There's a 19 day delay between what we sow and what we reap.

 

[ClaraD]

This may be partly due to my own observations - with take out ice cream today, people in line were 6 feet away. Schools in MA are closed. The cars in town during my run were down about 80%, and there were lots of people walking around. There were two guys in a driveway lifting weights (not at work), which I've never seen before. As the daily death toll mounts, people will gradually clamp down more. There's a 19 day delay between what we sow and what we reap.

There were thousands on those beaches in Florida

 

[Lursa]

The Lowe's and Goodwill parking lots by me outside Seattle were full today.

 

[CaughtInThe]

In the meantime, prepare for some death numbers not quite as bad as Italy, but certainly enough to get the press rocking.

and maybe even sadness for the families who lost loved ones.