Conservatives on 'razor's edge' of losing government

[AgentM]

1. A breathtaking shift. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would lose 33 seats if an election were held today and only maintain a tenuous hold on minority government, according to a new EKOS poll.

“From comfortable majority and kudos in October to the razor’s edge of losing government altogether,” says pollster Frank Graves, whose new survey finds that Canadians simply don’t like the Parliamentary shutdown.

“Clearly it has a significant impact. It has become a proxy and a catalyst for a whole bunch of broader frustrations and anxieties that the public are feeling about the government.”

Indeed, the EKOS data is consistent with two polls released yesterday showing the Tories and Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals effectively tied for support and that Canadians are displeased with Mr. Harper’s decision to prorogue Parliament.

Mr. Graves’s poll of 3,730 Canadians, conducted between January 6 and January 12, puts the Tories with 30.9 per cent support compared to 29.3 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP are at 15.3 per cent; the Bloc is at 10.2 per cent and the Green Party has 11.9 per cent.

More interesting, however, is Mr. Graves’s seat projections based on the latest numbers.

If an election were held today, he says, the Tories would have only 112 seats compared to the 145 they have now. Last fall, when his polls had the Tories in majority government territory, Mr. Graves had the Harper team winning 177 seats. Now, they would see their biggest losses in Ontario, dropping to 33 from 51seats.

The Liberals, meanwhile, would make gains in Ontario, taking 60 seats from their current 38. Nationally, Mr. Graves has the Ignatieff team winning 107 seats compared to the 77 seats they have now.

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Conservatives on 'razor’s edge of losing government' - The Globe and Mail

Wow, this is huge! If an election were held today the Tories could quite possibly lose. Awesome!

 

[Joe Blow]

Interesting how the fortunes shift. Honestly prorogation is nothing new. Chretien used it many times to his advantage; including to delay the release of the Sponsorship Scandal report until after Paul Martin had taken over as PM; since the Auditor General can only report to a sitting House.

The Grits have played this one well in the media for once (they have had quite a bit of trouble lately) and it's getting them points.

That being said I don't think Iggy is ready for an election. Especially after sending up the trial balloon last fall and getting killed in the polls for it. It is far too soon for him to change his mind again without seeming far too opportunistic.

Budget day should be interesting though.

 

[AgentM]

Interesting how the fortunes shift. Honestly prorogation is nothing new. Chretien used it many times to his advantage; including to delay the release of the Sponsorship Scandal report until after Paul Martin had taken over as PM; since the Auditor General can only report to a sitting House.

The Grits have played this one well in the media for once (they have had quite a bit of trouble lately) and it's getting them points.

That being said I don't think Iggy is ready for an election. Especially after sending up the trial balloon last fall and getting killed in the polls for it. It is far too soon for him to change his mind again without seeming far too opportunistic.

Budget day should be interesting though.

Yeah, I doubt that the Grits are going to force an election at this juncture, considering that Iggy has recently indicated that they wouldn't. The Liberals need to make themselves an actual platform, that they can show to people before they think of forcing an election. I wish the Grits were more organized so that they could do that, oh well.

 

[Joe Blow]

Yeah, I doubt that the Grits are going to force an election at this juncture, considering that Iggy has recently indicated that they wouldn't. The Liberals need to make themselves an actual platform, that they can show to people before they think of forcing an election. I wish the Grits were more organized so that they could do that, oh well.

It has been interesting to watch the 'transition' from Dion to Iggy; as in there hasn't been much. Yes Iggy is a much better public speaker (I can't comment on his French since mine stinks to say the least) than Dion was, but the policy points still seem to be sorely lacking. He bangs away at why the Liberals would be a better option but he has a bloody hard time outlining how.

Now granted many things can shift drastically in a Gen Elec but not many Canadians oust a gov't in favour of a party without any clear direction.