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(CNBC) Job growth revised down by 911,000 through March, signaling economy on shakier footing than realized

Chomsky

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(CNBC) Job growth revised down by 911,000 through March, signaling economy on shakier footing than realized
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Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls data for the year prior to March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimates, according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Several days after Trump's new BLS head took his position, he & Trump - in the Oval Office - announced to reporters he had found the BLS employment data released during Biden's last year in office was overly optimistic and greatly erroneous

Today the BLS seems to be acting upon that claim, officially revising the data from the year previous to MAR of '25 downward by nearly 1M jobs!

Was Donald Trump vindicated? Or, is BLS not to be trusted? You're the judge. The markets, for their part (at the moment), appear to be neutral on the news - as they are virtually flat.
 

The economy was already on shaky ground and could have gone either way. tRump's tariffs really hurt that economy.
 
Phys251 said:
The economy was already on shaky ground and could have gone either way. tRump's tariffs really hurt that economy.
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My concern is with trusting the data.

This revision, as pointed-out in the OP article, was far larger than any previous revision.

If accurate, it might explain why Trump's tariffs have only produced a slight blip in inflation so far.
 
The new Golden Age as promised by Trump is upon us !!

Then again the same man said he would end the Ukraine War in 24 hours. And we ALL know how that turned out.
 

This nearly matches the downward revision for the period 4/23 - 3/24.
 
This Trump economy already sucks and is going to get worse.

We are in the middle of a bubble, and we're seeing non existent job growth, flat or negative consumer spending, and rising prices in the middle of this sluggish economy.

The AI bubble is going to pop, there's already lots of information coming out that there's really no productivity gains coming from companies that have invested in AI. AI investment is the only thing keeping this farce of an economy going.

I wonder how many dopey farmers or people worried about losing their medicaid are going to vote against Republicans in the mid term. It would be a fun little turn of events that in diluting their majority in "safe" districts, Texas goes blue for the first time with their redrawn districts.
 
yankintx said:
The new Golden Age as promised by Trump is upon us !!

Then again the same man said he would end the Ukraine War in 24 hours. And we ALL know how that turned out.
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SCrider said:
It will for the very rich.
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If Fed Chairman Powell trust's Trump's data, Trump might be getting his 1/2 point rate cut!
 
BLS is not to be trusted.

Curious how this revision suddenly appears after the new BLS head takes over and Trump's numbers are craptastic.
 
Chomsky said:
Yeah. But if business and the markets don't have some degree of reasonable trust in economic data, how can they proceed withy decision-making?
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They certainly aren't going to go with data they KNOW is wrong.

My guess is that private firms will start collating correct data.
 
Most of the time span for the report came before President Donald Trump took office, indicating the jobs picture was deteriorating before he began levying tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
 
Luce said:
This is the new BLS guy, right?

May as well believe tea leaves.
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Not the one Trump is floating for Senate confirmation. There's an acting commissioner (William Wiatrowski) until a new commissioner is confirmed.
 
Stealers Wheel said:
I suspect E.J. Antoni may be fired within a Scarmucci or two. Everyone knows Trump doesn't like bad news. What was Antoni thinking?
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the new BLS Commisioner Wiatrowski will be praised!

This is good news for Trump. These are primarily Biden's numbers being revised downward. He can now blame Biden for his economic woes.
 
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NOLA Dude said:
Most of the time span for the report came before President Donald Trump took office, indicating the jobs picture was deteriorating before he began levying tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
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Yeah, and Trump's policies have been terrible for the economy in general, not just a weakening one. When you have massive policies like the "Big Beautiful Bill" and tariffs along with massive government job cuts, you own it. You've literally done everything possible to rip the rug from under a good economy, much less a weakening one.

Trump is about to Hoover this country

Also, Trump just fired the head of the BLS and put in a highly partisan guy. Who knows where the lower growth is happening at this point, for all we know Trump's guy is cooking the books to spread out the losses.
 
Yeah, this report has been very anticipated and with great interest. A similar situation happened last year when this annual report was released and (last year during campaign season) Trump indicated he thought the BLS was quite problematic. Now we know last year's (2024) jobs numbers weren't even close to what we thought - just as we learned 2023's numbers weren't what we thought when a similar situation occurred last year. Here is just another source on the same topic.

 
NOLA Dude said:
So Biden didn't add barely any jobs last year but they lied and said they did. Wow

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NOLA Dude said:
So they were lying then too?
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Or, Trump is lying now.

With his BLS firing, Trump has essentially eliminated BLS data from serious calculus in economic assessment. Which, given his poor economy, is obviously what he wanted.

We might be seeing this in the markets' non-reaction.
 
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