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Christopher Newport University poll: Republicans heading for BIG defeat in November elections in Virginia.

Tender Branson

Tender Branson

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GOV:
Spanberger (D) 52%
Sears (R) 40%
Undecided/DK 8%

LG:
Hashmi (D) 48%
Reid (R) 37%
Undecided/DK 15%

AG:
Jones (D) 48%
Miyares (R) 41%
Undecided/DK 11%

Spanberger fav 43/33 (+10)
Sears fav 34/37 (-3)

Hashmi fav 15/13 (+2)
Reid fav 13/11 (+2)

Miyares fav 26/18 (+8)
Jones fav 23/19 (+4)

HOD generic ballot D+8 - 51/43

Trump approval 39/58 (-19)

cnu.edu

In the Race for Governor Spanberger Leads Earle Sears by 12 Points Among Virginia Likely Voters

Hashmi Leads Reid by 11 points in Lt. Governor Contest; Jones Leads Miyares by 7 Points in Attorney General Race
cnu.edu

https://mcusercontent.com/0a86688a0...98-aadf9b9fce6a/VAElection2025SurveyWason.pdf

Republicans currently hold all 3 offices in VA. Huge wipeout incoming.
 
Pretty much a foregone conclusion that Republicans will get wiped out in the three Executive Branch races.

It will be interesting to see if Democrats can increase their current 51 to 49 majority in the House of Delegates. The State Senate is not up for election this year. The 22nd Delegate district is a possible pickup. The 30th Delegate district is also a possibility.
 
Tender Branson said:
GOV:
Spanberger (D) 52%
Sears (R) 40%
Undecided/DK 8%

LG:
Hashmi (D) 48%
Reid (R) 37%
Undecided/DK 15%

AG:
Jones (D) 48%
Miyares (R) 41%
Undecided/DK 11%

Spanberger fav 43/33 (+10)
Sears fav 34/37 (-3)

Hashmi fav 15/13 (+2)
Reid fav 13/11 (+2)

Miyares fav 26/18 (+8)
Jones fav 23/19 (+4)

HOD generic ballot D+8 - 51/43

Trump approval 39/58 (-19)

cnu.edu

In the Race for Governor Spanberger Leads Earle Sears by 12 Points Among Virginia Likely Voters

Hashmi Leads Reid by 11 points in Lt. Governor Contest; Jones Leads Miyares by 7 Points in Attorney General Race
cnu.edu

https://mcusercontent.com/0a86688a0...98-aadf9b9fce6a/VAElection2025SurveyWason.pdf

Republicans currently hold all 3 offices in VA. Huge wipeout incoming.
Click to expand...
Not suprising at all since most of Virginia's population is part of the DC area.
 
Safiel said:
Pretty much a foregone conclusion that Republicans will get wiped out in the three Executive Branch races.

It will be interesting to see if Democrats can increase their current 51 to 49 majority in the House of Delegates. The State Senate is not up for election this year. The 22nd Delegate district is a possible pickup. The 30th Delegate district is also a possibility.
Click to expand...

The chances for Ds to hold the Virginia House of Delegates are very high and they could increase their majority from 51-49 to 55-45 or more.

In 2023, Dems won 51-49 seats with a statewide +2% vote lead.

The poll now shows the generic House vote at D+8%.

And there are 8 districts in which Harris won in 2024, but held by Republicans.

And an additional 7 seats held by Republicans, but where Trump won by less than 5%.

So, Dems could win up to 15 of 100 House seats from Republicans in November.
 
Moderate Right said:
Not suprising at all since most of Virginia's population is part of the DC area.
Click to expand...

Former slaves and their descendents should not be allowed to vote, but it will take time to adjust the voting rolls accordingly.

I am afraid the upcoming Virginia election should be delayed indefinitely.

MAGA.
 
Remains to be seen.
 
Tender Branson said:
The chances for Ds to hold the Virginia House of Delegates are very high and they could increase their majority from 51-49 to 55-45 or more.

In 2023, Dems won 51-49 seats with a statewide +2% vote lead.

The poll now shows the generic House vote at D+8%.

And there are 8 districts in which Harris won in 2024, but held by Republicans.

And an additional 7 seats held by Republicans, but where Trump won by less than 5%.

So, Dems could win up to 15 of 100 House seats from Republicans in November.
Click to expand...

1758217189055.webp

There is the current map. Count the vacant district as Republican.

Two potential pickups in Northern Virginia. Perhaps as many as four adjacent to the Petersburg/Richmond area. Perhaps another four in the Hampton Roads area.

They clearly won't make it to 67 for a supermajority. So having 55 seats is pretty much the same as having 60 or 65. Anything above 55 puts them in good shape legislatively.
 
Moderate Right said:
Not suprising at all since most of Virginia's population is part of the DC area.
Click to expand...

GOP may be losing the Latino vote in TX as well- in a big way.

www.rawstory.com

'You never see drops like this!' Expert shocked by Trump trend line that's threatening GOP

CNN's Harry Enten warned Republicans they might be making a bet on Texas Latinos that might not pay off.Republicans are betting on the durability with their gains with Hispanic voters, the largest demographic group in Texas, in 2024, when President Donald Trump pulled in 55 percent support from...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
 
Tender Branson said:
GOV:
Spanberger (D) 52%
Sears (R) 40%
Undecided/DK 8%

LG:
Hashmi (D) 48%
Reid (R) 37%
Undecided/DK 15%

AG:
Jones (D) 48%
Miyares (R) 41%
Undecided/DK 11%

Spanberger fav 43/33 (+10)
Sears fav 34/37 (-3)

Hashmi fav 15/13 (+2)
Reid fav 13/11 (+2)

Miyares fav 26/18 (+8)
Jones fav 23/19 (+4)

HOD generic ballot D+8 - 51/43

Trump approval 39/58 (-19)

cnu.edu

In the Race for Governor Spanberger Leads Earle Sears by 12 Points Among Virginia Likely Voters

Hashmi Leads Reid by 11 points in Lt. Governor Contest; Jones Leads Miyares by 7 Points in Attorney General Race
cnu.edu

https://mcusercontent.com/0a86688a0...98-aadf9b9fce6a/VAElection2025SurveyWason.pdf

Republicans currently hold all 3 offices in VA. Huge wipeout incoming.
Click to expand...
Good for Virginia and the USA.
 
Safiel said:
View attachment 67589930

There is the current map. Count the vacant district as Republican.

Two potential pickups in Northern Virginia. Perhaps as many as four adjacent to the Petersburg/Richmond area. Perhaps another four in the Hampton Roads area.

They clearly won't make it to 67 for a supermajority. So having 55 seats is pretty much the same as having 60 or 65. Anything above 55 puts them in good shape legislatively.
Click to expand...

If there is a double-digit Spanberger win (which is likely), Dems could sweep all competetive districts, including the Republican-held that are in Harris districts or less than Trump+5.

This would give them 66/100 seats (+15 from now).

For the 67 supermajority, they would need another seat (there is a Trump+7 district), but that is difficult, even with a landslide in the governor race.

en.wikipedia.org

2025 Virginia House of Delegates election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

And the VA Senate is 21-19 D, so no supermajority there either.
 
Tender Branson said:
If there is a double-digit Spanberger win (which is likely), Dems could sweep all competetive districts, including the Republican-held that are in Harris districts or less than Trump+5.

This would give them 66/100 seats (+15 from now).

For the 67 supermajority, they would need another seat (there is a Trump+7 district), but that is difficult, even with a landslide in the governor race.

en.wikipedia.org

2025 Virginia House of Delegates election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

And the VA Senate is 21-19 D, so no supermajority there either.
Click to expand...

Even if they somehow got to a supermajority, it wouldn't do them any good unless they had a supermajority in the Senate as well and that won't be up for election until 2027.

Still, they should do well.
 
Tender Branson said:
If there is a double-digit Spanberger win (which is likely), Dems could sweep all competetive districts, including the Republican-held that are in Harris districts or less than Trump+5.

This would give them 66/100 seats (+15 from now).

For the 67 supermajority, they would need another seat (there is a Trump+7 district), but that is difficult, even with a landslide in the governor race.

en.wikipedia.org

2025 Virginia House of Delegates election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

And the VA Senate is 21-19 D, so no supermajority there either.
Click to expand...


You really think it will make any difference?

Trump ignores congress.
 
Tender Branson said:
GOV:
Spanberger (D) 52%
Sears (R) 40%
Undecided/DK 8%

LG:
Hashmi (D) 48%
Reid (R) 37%
Undecided/DK 15%

AG:
Jones (D) 48%
Miyares (R) 41%
Undecided/DK 11%

Spanberger fav 43/33 (+10)
Sears fav 34/37 (-3)

Hashmi fav 15/13 (+2)
Reid fav 13/11 (+2)

Miyares fav 26/18 (+8)
Jones fav 23/19 (+4)

HOD generic ballot D+8 - 51/43

Trump approval 39/58 (-19)

cnu.edu

In the Race for Governor Spanberger Leads Earle Sears by 12 Points Among Virginia Likely Voters

Hashmi Leads Reid by 11 points in Lt. Governor Contest; Jones Leads Miyares by 7 Points in Attorney General Race
cnu.edu

https://mcusercontent.com/0a86688a0...98-aadf9b9fce6a/VAElection2025SurveyWason.pdf

Republicans currently hold all 3 offices in VA. Huge wipeout incoming.
Click to expand...
I believe VA voters have had buyers remorse since a week or two into Youngkin's election. That never changed.
 
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