Chinese reunification: December 5, 2025

[bythoughts]

I'm predicting that by midnight on/after December 4, 2025, China will send forces into Taiwan and take over in a few hours. The U.S. will not send so much as a weather report to aid in the battle, and any weapon dependent on support or authorization from Washington, won't. The carriers will be conveniently elsewhere, perhaps in a staged standoff with China at some Japanese island. I'm going to say that because so far my best guess is that Gerald Ford, Henry Kissinger, and Ambassador George H.W. Bush agreed to a secret treaty at this meeting with Deng Xiaoping ('Teng' in Wade-Giles romanization) in 1975.

Teng: ...Of course, I believe the Doctor will well remember the talks he had with Chairman Mao during his recent October visit in which the Chairman has very explicitly discussed our position. And with regard to the thing you mentioned just now, to put it frankly, we do not believe in peaceful transition. Because there is a huge bunch of counter-revolutionaries over there, and the question of what method we will take to solve our internal problem is something that we believe belongs to the internal affairs of China, to be decided by China herself. And in his conversation with the Doctor, Chairman Mao mentioned five years, ten years, 20 years, 100 years. While the Doctor continued stressing the point that "you had mentioned 100 years. [Laughter]. So, I think that is about all for that question.
The President: You can argue that 100 years is a peaceful transition. [Laughter].
Teng: But I think it is clear that the Chairman's meaning was that even in 100 years a peaceful transition would be impossible. There is still time left...

I think the deal ('very explicit discussions') was that China would not use force for 50 years, and the U.S. would not use force afterward. Despite Kissinger's overwhelmingly high rank, I think Ford would have had to sign off on the treaty paper officially, making December the anniversary.

I'm posting this because another one of the little chess-moves is underway. South Africa has asked China to postpone military exercises with Russia at the end of November. Those exercises would have been near South Africa. I wonder where those ships might end up....

The final confirmation: let's watch where the US aircraft carriers go near the end of November. If they are complying with a peace arrangement, I expect we'll see them move well away from Taiwan, days before the event.

 

[Lycanthrope]

December 4 is a very specific date.

Wait ‐ the dates in your thread title and in the body of your post don't match.

 

[Grand Mal]

December 4 is a very specific date.

Wait ‐ the dates in your thread title and in the body of your post don't match.

Midnight Dec. 4.

 

[bythoughts]

Wait ‐ the dates in your thread title and in the body of your post don't match.

Well, it's a bit of a guess! I don't really know how Kissinger would draw up a secret treaty and what Ford would sign. I assumed here the legal boundary is 50 years from the official signing ceremony, which I assume was on December 4. I assume that day would be part of the 50 years, not the exact time. I'll admit - they could have rounded it off to the calendar year. And Kissinger was VERY high ranking - for all I know it could be October. But this little thing with the relocated exercise makes me more confident it's roughly the 50-year anniversary I was expecting. And the Chinese are going to need at least a short time to take over Taiwan, no matter what surprises and inevitability they can cite on their end. So... December 5. That comes with a money back guarantee.

 

[gman]

Well, it's a bit of a guess! I don't really know how Kissinger would draw up a secret treaty and what Ford would sign. I assumed here the legal boundary is 50 years from the official signing ceremony, which I assume was on December 4. I assume that day would be part of the 50 years, not the exact time. I'll admit - they could have rounded it off to the calendar year. And Kissinger was VERY high ranking - for all I know it could be October. But this little thing with the relocated exercise makes me more confident it's roughly the 50-year anniversary I was expecting. And the Chinese are going to need at least a short time to take over Taiwan, no matter what surprises and inevitability they can cite on their end. So... December 5. That comes with a money back guarantee.

How do you propose China overwhelming Taiwan so quickly? I propose it will be a blood bath of epic proportions.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

How do you propose China overwhelming Taiwan so quickly? I propose it will be a blood bath of epic proportions.

A few ways

Before covid 1 in 10 adult Taiwanese were working in China. That could be a good source for 5th column sabotage

A mass drone swarm hitting communication towers

Mass missile strikes on air fields taking out anti aircraft and fighters

Now as for the likely hood,

Zero a treaty signed 50 plus years ago in secret would not be honored by other presidents and certainly not Trump

 

[Lycanthrope]

Well, it's a bit of a guess! I don't really know how Kissinger would draw up a secret treaty and what Ford would sign. I assumed here the legal boundary is 50 years from the official signing ceremony, which I assume was on December 4. I assume that day would be part of the 50 years, not the exact time. I'll admit - they could have rounded it off to the calendar year. And Kissinger was VERY high ranking - for all I know it could be October. But this little thing with the relocated exercise makes me more confident it's roughly the 50-year anniversary I was expecting. And the Chinese are going to need at least a short time to take over Taiwan, no matter what surprises and inevitability they can cite on their end. So... December 5. That comes with a money back guarantee.

Okay, we have you on record for 12/5. We'll have to wait and see...

 

[gman]

A few ways

Before covid 1 in 10 adult Taiwanese were working in China. That could be a good source for 5th column sabotage

A mass drone swarm hitting communication towers

Mass missile strikes on air fields taking out anti aircraft and fighters

Now as for the likely hood,

Zero a treaty signed 50 plus years ago in secret would not be honored by other presidents and certainly not Trump

That’s all well and good but they still have to put boots on the ground. There are very few beach landing areas suitable for any sort of amphibious assault. Airborne assaults would fail miserably because of the number of troops lost before they even jumped out of a plane. The terrain poses serious limitations, in fact even more so than what our troops experienced in Okinawa which is no where near the size of Taiwan. I’ll stick with my posit of a blood bath.

 

[Safiel]

A blood bath is really not a big deal at all for China. They have plenty of population to spare, so a large loss of life is not a problem for them.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

A blood bath is really not a big deal at all for China. They have plenty of population to spare, so a large loss of life is not a problem for them.

Except that with the one child policy each and every person age 1 to 27 is likely the only child the family has. Nearly no family is going to want to see their only child killed in a meaningless war.

Remember Chinese parents today and even 20 years ago spent a fortune raising their only child. That and recall China has not invaded or done anything larger than a boarder skirmish with less than 300 soldiers in about 40 years

 

[bythoughts]

That’s all well and good but they still have to put boots on the ground. There are very few beach landing areas suitable for any sort of amphibious assault.

Given that it's China, my first thought is that they probably have excavated a multi-lane highway tunnel from Xianshandao Island or thereabouts.

Of course, I don't really know what they have, but my guess is they intend to make a surprising move, together with the U.S. abruptly bowing out, to bring about a quick resolution.

 

[Peter]

I'm predicting that by midnight on/after December 4, 2025, China will send forces into Taiwan and take over in a few hours. The U.S. will not send so much as a weather report to aid in the battle, and any weapon dependent on support or authorization from Washington, won't. The carriers will be conveniently elsewhere, perhaps in a staged standoff with China at some Japanese island. I'm going to say that because so far my best guess is that Gerald Ford, Henry Kissinger, and Ambassador George H.W. Bush agreed to a secret treaty at this meeting with Deng Xiaoping ('Teng' in Wade-Giles romanization) in 1975.

I think the deal ('very explicit discussions') was that China would not use force for 50 years, and the U.S. would not use force afterward. Despite Kissinger's overwhelmingly high rank, I think Ford would have had to sign off on the treaty paper officially, making December the anniversary.

I'm posting this because another one of the little chess-moves is underway. South Africa has asked China to postpone military exercises with Russia at the end of November. Those exercises would have been near South Africa. I wonder where those ships might end up....

The final confirmation: let's watch where the US aircraft carriers go near the end of November. If they are complying with a peace arrangement, I expect we'll see them move well away from Taiwan, days before the event.

Taiwan has had decades to prepare and know where the Chinese will land as there are limited options.
Any invasion will not be quick and will involve dozens of Chinese ships being sunk along with all the troops on board.

All Taiwan has to do is hold out until reinforcements arrive.
Even if the US decides to stand back the UK, France and Germany will certainly send forces to help. A few hundred European jets and a couple of aircraft carrier taskgroups should help nicely.

 

[gman]

Taiwan has had decades to prepare and know where the Chinese will land as there are limited options.
Any invasion will not be quick and will involve dozens of Chinese ships being sunk along with all the troops on board.

All Taiwan has to do is hold out until reinforcements arrive.
Even if the US decides to stand back the UK, France and Germany will certainly send forces to help. A few hundred European jets and a couple of aircraft carrier taskgroups should help nicely.

It would be nice if Europe responded, but you know how those Europeans can be very fickle when the rubber meets the road.

 

[Safiel]

The United States and/or Europe may decide they don't want to lose two carrier strike groups, which would be the minimum we would likely lose in a war with China over Taiwan. 3 or 4 carrier strike groups lost is also a very real possibility.

Both Europe and the United States may talk tough, but if it comes to an actual invasion, the cost of intervention may be just too high.

 

[Rexedgar]

We got a war department just in time, Petey is itching to use it.

 

[Peter]

It would be nice if Europe responded, but you know how those Europeans can be very fickle when the rubber meets the road.

Since when?
The UK was massively involved in Iraq, Afghanistan and the other smaller conflicts of the last few decades.

 

[Peter]

We got a war department just in time, Petey is itching to use it.

If you mean me then I'd much rather there not be an invasion of Taiwan but if there is I think the UK should help in the defence of the island in any way we can.