Chinese reunification: December 5, 2025

Teng: ...Of course, I believe the Doctor will well remember the talks he had with Chairman Mao during his recent October visit in which the Chairman has very explicitly discussed our position. And with regard to the thing you mentioned just now, to put it frankly, we do not believe in peaceful transition. Because there is a huge bunch of counter-revolutionaries over there, and the question of what method we will take to solve our internal problem is something that we believe belongs to the internal affairs of China, to be decided by China herself. And in his conversation with the Doctor, Chairman Mao mentioned five years, ten years, 20 years, 100 years. While the Doctor continued stressing the point that "you had mentioned 100 years. [Laughter]. So, I think that is about all for that question.
The President: You can argue that 100 years is a peaceful transition. [Laughter].
Teng: But I think it is clear that the Chairman's meaning was that even in 100 years a peaceful transition would be impossible. There is still time left...

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Lycanthrope said:

December 4 is a very specific date.

Wait ‐ the dates in your thread title and in the body of your post don't match.

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Lycanthrope said:

Wait ‐ the dates in your thread title and in the body of your post don't match.

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bythoughts said:

Well, it's a bit of a guess! I don't really know how Kissinger would draw up a secret treaty and what Ford would sign. I assumed here the legal boundary is 50 years from the official signing ceremony, which I assume was on December 4. I assume that day would be part of the 50 years, not the exact time. I'll admit - they could have rounded it off to the calendar year. And Kissinger was VERY high ranking - for all I know it could be October. But this little thing with the relocated exercise makes me more confident it's roughly the 50-year anniversary I was expecting. And the Chinese are going to need at least a short time to take over Taiwan, no matter what surprises and inevitability they can cite on their end. So... December 5. That comes with a money back guarantee.

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gman said:

How do you propose China overwhelming Taiwan so quickly? I propose it will be a blood bath of epic proportions.

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bythoughts said:

Well, it's a bit of a guess! I don't really know how Kissinger would draw up a secret treaty and what Ford would sign. I assumed here the legal boundary is 50 years from the official signing ceremony, which I assume was on December 4. I assume that day would be part of the 50 years, not the exact time. I'll admit - they could have rounded it off to the calendar year. And Kissinger was VERY high ranking - for all I know it could be October. But this little thing with the relocated exercise makes me more confident it's roughly the 50-year anniversary I was expecting. And the Chinese are going to need at least a short time to take over Taiwan, no matter what surprises and inevitability they can cite on their end. So... December 5. That comes with a money back guarantee.

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Lord Tammerlain said:

A few ways

Before covid 1 in 10 adult Taiwanese were working in China. That could be a good source for 5th column sabotage

A mass drone swarm hitting communication towers

Mass missile strikes on air fields taking out anti aircraft and fighters

Now as for the likely hood,

Zero a treaty signed 50 plus years ago in secret would not be honored by other presidents and certainly not Trump

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Safiel said:

A blood bath is really not a big deal at all for China. They have plenty of population to spare, so a large loss of life is not a problem for them.

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gman said:

That’s all well and good but they still have to put boots on the ground. There are very few beach landing areas suitable for any sort of amphibious assault.

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bythoughts said:

I'm predicting that by midnight on/after December 4, 2025, China will send forces into Taiwan and take over in a few hours. The U.S. will not send so much as a weather report to aid in the battle, and any weapon dependent on support or authorization from Washington, won't. The carriers will be conveniently elsewhere, perhaps in a staged standoff with China at some Japanese island. I'm going to say that because so far my best guess is that Gerald Ford, Henry Kissinger, and Ambassador George H.W. Bush agreed to a secret treaty at this meeting with Deng Xiaoping ('Teng' in Wade-Giles romanization) in 1975.

I think the deal ('very explicit discussions') was that China would not use force for 50 years, and the U.S. would not use force afterward. Despite Kissinger's overwhelmingly high rank, I think Ford would have had to sign off on the treaty paper officially, making December the anniversary.

I'm posting this because another one of the little chess-moves is underway. South Africa has asked China to postpone military exercises with Russia at the end of November. Those exercises would have been near South Africa. I wonder where those ships might end up....

The final confirmation: let's watch where the US aircraft carriers go near the end of November. If they are complying with a peace arrangement, I expect we'll see them move well away from Taiwan, days before the event.

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Peter said:

Taiwan has had decades to prepare and know where the Chinese will land as there are limited options.
Any invasion will not be quick and will involve dozens of Chinese ships being sunk along with all the troops on board.

All Taiwan has to do is hold out until reinforcements arrive.
Even if the US decides to stand back the UK, France and Germany will certainly send forces to help. A few hundred European jets and a couple of aircraft carrier taskgroups should help nicely.

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gman said:

It would be nice if Europe responded, but you know how those Europeans can be very fickle when the rubber meets the road.

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Rexedgar said:

We got a war department just in time, Petey is itching to use it.

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Lycanthrope said:

December 4 is a very specific date.

Wait ‐ the dates in your thread title and in the body of your post don't match.

Click to expand...

bythoughts said:

I'm predicting that by midnight on/after December 4, 2025, China will send forces into Taiwan and take over in a few hours. The U.S. will not send so much as a weather report to aid in the battle, and any weapon dependent on support or authorization from Washington, won't. The carriers will be conveniently elsewhere, perhaps in a staged standoff with China at some Japanese island. I'm going to say that because so far my best guess is that Gerald Ford, Henry Kissinger, and Ambassador George H.W. Bush agreed to a secret treaty at this meeting with Deng Xiaoping ('Teng' in Wade-Giles romanization) in 1975.

I think the deal ('very explicit discussions') was that China would not use force for 50 years, and the U.S. would not use force afterward. Despite Kissinger's overwhelmingly high rank, I think Ford would have had to sign off on the treaty paper officially, making December the anniversary.

I'm posting this because another one of the little chess-moves is underway. South Africa has asked China to postpone military exercises with Russia at the end of November. Those exercises would have been near South Africa. I wonder where those ships might end up....

The final confirmation: let's watch where the US aircraft carriers go near the end of November. If they are complying with a peace arrangement, I expect we'll see them move well away from Taiwan, days before the event.

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Cordelier said:

Dec. 4 is a full moon. I sure wouldn't want to wade ashore on Taiwan lit up like a Christmas tree.

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bythoughts said:

I'm not informed about military matters, but I can't help but think that China, having long prepared for this fight, might have something better than those awful landing boats from Saving Private Ryan. I mean, couldn't they drop smoke until you can't see your hand in front of your face, then bring their people, wearing terahertz imagers, onto shore with hovercrafts? Or with some kind of amphibious "robot horse" (salamander?) with trick-jointed legs?

I would say they must have a Wu Sangui or two on their payroll ... but then again, they'd say those are simply loyal citizens of their country. I think it might not come to much of a fight.

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