Chinese Premier Li Qiang visits Australia at Crucial time for Beijing and Canberra

[Borg Refinery]

Officials, diplomats and police in Canberra are furiously preparing for Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who will fly into Australia later today at a crucial time for Beijing and for the Australian government.

China wants to strengthen economic ties between the two nations, while the federal government is hoping Beijing will soon remove the last few remaining trade sanctions it has placed on Australian goods.

With China's domestic economy facing challenges, maintaining the trade bans could jeopardise Beijing's aspirations to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade pact, making a resolution with Australia even more pressing.

One potential game changer is expected to be announced: a 15-day visa-free entry for all Australian citizens to China.

ABC

Not long ago, wasn't Australia at loggerheads with China over coal? The new administration seems to be much more friendly towards China, but is that a good thing with China posturing so much over Taiwan..? Will this not affect relations with the US administration..? I recall "ScoMo" was very anti-China, but Albanese seems to be much more friendly towards the Chinese

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

ABC

Not long ago, wasn't Australia at loggerheads with China over coal? The new administration seems to be much more friendly towards China, but is that a good thing with China posturing so much over Taiwan..? Will this not affect relations with the US administration..? I recall "ScoMo" was very anti-China, but Albanese seems to be much more friendly towards the Chinese

A significant amount of Australian (32%) exports go to China, I believe it has a trade surplus with China, one of very few countries.

The issue over coal was more due to ScoMo commenting that China was basically an enemy. I doubt many countries are going to not respond in some way towards that. China tends to target specific industries to show its response. It also put tariffs on Australian wine

 

[Ishm]

I wonder if Li Qiang will get a warmer welcome in Australia than he just did in New Zealand where their media greeted him by filling the front pages with stories of Chinese govt activities in NZ?

 

[Tangmo]

Fear not.

Australia is in the same region as China and they need to trade with each other. Most of the recent trade sanctions have been lifted by each side. The biggest issue remaining, China's import of live Australian lobsters is expected to be resolved with this visit by the
CCP Prime Minister Li Qiang (pron: Chiang).

The Anthony Albasese Labour government is the first ever Labor government in Australia to be all in with the United States.

Inside the large-scale military exercise in Australia ​

to counter China's influence in the Pacific​

About 30,000 troops participated in this year's Talisman Sabre, the largest yet.

July 31, 2023

Australias Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles greet service members from some of the 13 countries participating in the Talisman Sabre exercise. Marles and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited the Lavarack Barracks in Townsville, Australia, July 30, 2023.


TOWNSVILLE, Australia -- For the next week 30,000 troops from the U.S., Australia, and 11 other countries will continue their joint training in different parts of Australia as part of the Talisman Sabre 2023, a military exercise that used to focus on the U.S. and Australia but now shows the growing interest other nations in the region and beyond have in countering China's growing influence in the South Pacific. The two-week exercise incorporates training on the ground, in the air and at sea, providing realistic training for how these militaries could work together if needed in the future. Originally a joint U.S.-Australia exercise, it has grown in scope in recent years and is expected to keep growing in the future.

Inside the large-scale military exercise in Australia to counter China's influence in the Pacific

Inside the large scale Talisman Sabre military exercise in Australia that counters China's influence in the South Pacific.

abcnews.go.com

US Marines have a continuous rotational presence in Darwin. For the first time in something like 80 years, Japan Ground Self Defense Force troops are deployed abroad -- to Australia, with the US Marines and the Australian Defence Force. There's the USAUK nuclear powered submarine deal underway by which the subs will be built in Australia which is a huge boost to Australian technology, industry, military and standing in the region as a prospering democracy.

 

[The Stars Tremble]

CTP was meant to contain China, but without the US the CPTPP are short on rich nations. Hopefully the accession of the UK will be enough to keep China out.

Whether Australia votes for Chinese entry or not, doesn't really make much difference. China are a good trading partner, particularly for developing nations wanting investment and semi-manufactured goods. With or without China CPTPP will be good for Mexico and Canada ... so if Trump is elected he'll have hard choice between joining CPTPP or reversing NAFTA/CUSFTA. Every indication is that Trump opposes free trade, so it would be smart for Biden to take the opposite position and apply for CPTPP membership. There are plenty of things US businesses would like, like intellectual property and copyright protections.

Someone younger than 50 needs to have a talk with Biden. He kept Trump's tarriffs for the most part, and they've done more harm than good. The biggest importer of steel is Canada, and when it comes to aluminium Canada provides 63% of imports while the US exports more aluminium to China than it imports from them. Tarriffs are dumb in any case, but they're outstandingly dumb when they target goods the US barely imports at all. It's just performative, and not even good politics.

 

[The Stars Tremble]

US Marines have a continuous rotational presence in Darwin. For the first time in something like 80 years, Japan Ground Self Defense Force troops are deployed abroad -- to Australia, with the US Marines and the Australian Defence Force. There's the USAUK nuclear powered submarine deal underway by which the subs will be built in Australia which is a huge boost to Australian technology, industry, military and standing in the region as a prospering democracy.

US troop stationing in Australia is appreciated. Alice Springs would be poorer than it already is, without the US staff of Pine Gap spending their money. Hell even Darwin is quite needy.

I'd like if the sale of Virginia class subs could be locked in so Trump can't stop them.

AUKUS subs are still far in the future. Australians are haunted by the Collins class, a conventional sub made in Australia which performed well in exercises, but is chronically under-crewed. There are obvious problems with submarines no-one wants to sail in. AUKUS includes Australian manufacture, and the fact of the Virginia class purchase shows that Australian politicians aren't confident about Australian manufacture. That's a pretty expensive "stop-gap" when realistically no-one will be trying to invade Australia by sea. I expect the Virginia class are like the F-11, the FA-18 or the M1-A1 tanks: frontline weapons which see practically no service and are kept until they fall apart.

I really wouldn't be surprised if when government money is on the barrel-head, Australia buys Japanese, American or British subs. Australia spends 1.9% of GDP on the military (which is more than some European nations) but sheer scale makes it a bad investment to build major weapon systems. Of course there are nationalistic reasons to consider a partial or complete Australian build, but I expect the money will talk, and interoperability with the US military will favor US made submarines even after the Virginia class.

 

[Tangmo]

I'd like if the sale of Virginia class subs could be locked in so Trump can't stop them. AUKUS subs are still far in the future. I expect the Virginia class are like the F-11, the FA-18 or the M1-A1 tanks: frontline weapons which see practically no service and are kept until they fall apart. That's a pretty expensive "stop-gap" when realistically no-one will be trying to invade Australia by sea.

I really wouldn't be surprised if when government money is on the barrel-head, Australia buys Japanese, American or British subs. Australia spends 1.9% of GDP on the military (which is more than some European nations) but sheer scale makes it a bad investment to build major weapon systems. Of course there are nationalistic reasons to consider a partial or complete Australian build, but I expect the money will talk, and interoperability with the US military will favor US made submarines even after the Virginia class.

Alas there are two points I'd address.

One is the fact no one will try to invade Australia by sea so you foresee the 8 nuclear powered subs that are in the works for Oz as super expensive, fixed and idle offshore guard posts and not much more than that. Yet the opposite is true, that the whole point of nuclear powered subs for Oz is range, reach and longer periods of deployment. In a single word this means China. In three words it means China and Russia. In a few more words it means China, Russia, NK.

It's because of these three nuclear armed and missile bearing dictatorships that the democracies of Japan, SK and Taiwan live in the worst neighborhood of the world. And Oz is just down the way from that. Then there's the ten ASEAN nations of the South China Sea in between. Eight nuclear powered subs based in Oz is moreover integral to the architecture of USA allies throughout the region that continues to check the grandiose schemes of the CCP in Beijing to become the regional hegemon of the Pacific Far East. CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing want control of the global trade and security sea lanes and airspace from the North Pole to the South Pole with the SCS at the Equator being its core implement. This is why the US & UK are willing to share their nuclear weapons platform secrets on this. Oz being an exceptionally tight Anglophone partner is just another strong plus about it.

The second point is agreement that the whole of the multibillion bucks project is beyond the resources of Oz to do. Oz will need new facilities to support its 8 Virginia class subs or successor platform which is doable, but and as you note, to do much more than that involves bucks and resources that are just hugely prohibitive for Oz. I see this recognition beginning to sink in. We know Oz was in the process of buying the French Barracuda subs which was a concession to Beijing, ie, not buy the favored Soru class of silent subs from Japan. But now that the US & UK have moved in Oz is perfectly fine about having thrown the French overboard in favor of this.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Looks like Aukus is in for a deep rethink

US-Australia AUKUS submarine deal in trouble? US Congressional paper suggests drastic tweaks

The AUKUS deal was signed in 2021 with the US pushing out France, which was in talks with Australia to sell 12 conventional diesel-electric submarines.

theprint.in

The US Congressional Research Service, in its 10 October report, suggests that instead of building “up to eight additional Virginia-class SSNs (nuclear power attack submarines)” and instead of selling “three to five of them” to Australia, “these additional boats would instead be retained in US Navy service and operated out of Australia”.
“Australia — instead of using funds to purchase, build, operate, and maintain its own SSNs — would instead invest those funds in other military capabilities—such as, for example, long-range anti-ship missiles, drones, loitering munitions, B-21 long-range bombers, or other long-range strike aircraft—to create an Australian capacity for performing non-SSN military missions for both Australia and the United States,” the report says.

The US signed the AUKUS deal by pushing out France, which was in talks with the Australian side to sell 12 conventional diesel-electric submarines.