China posts unexpectedly strong economic growth

[Allan]

These are pre-tarrif numbers and it remains to be seen how much of an impact the trade war will have going forward.

As China has better trade relationships with most countries compared to the US I would expect them to see a smaller impact than what America is facing in Q2.

Growth in China’s gross domestic product (GDP) hit 5.4% in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. That was considerably higher than the expectations of more than 50 economists surveyed by Reuters, who had predicted expansion of 5.1%, and continues a recent run of surprisingly strong export-driven growth seen at the end of 2024.

Consumer spending and production also beat expectations, with retail sales rising by 5.9% in March compared with the same month last year, and factory output expanding by 7.7% last month compared with 5.9% in the January to February period.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/business/china-economy-growth-q1-hnk-intl/index.html

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

These are pre-tarrif numbers and it remains to be seen how much of an impact the trade war will have going forward.

As China has better trade relationships with most countries compared to the US I would expect them to see a smaller impact than what America is facing in Q2.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/business/china-economy-growth-q1-hnk-intl/index.html

Depending on cross border shopping and how US customs reacts I can see a lot of Americans coming to Canada to buy consumer electronics that could be seen as personal items

 

[anatta]

Gauging the Strength of China’s Economy in Uncertain Times - Liberty Street Economics

An update on China’s recent economic performance and policy changes, focusing on aggregate credit as a measure to gauge policy stimulus.

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

 

[joluoto]

They are probably cooking their books this time. I don't think tariffs would yet be visible in China's groth numbers though, but soon enough. Especially when it comes to import China has options. There are other countries selling soy beans, beef, oil, grain and medicine after all. I think where China might hit some problems are semiconductors and airplane parts, but even then there are other suppliers, but being able to buy the same quantities as from the US might be problematic.