Montecresto
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China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.
"China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack," Kashin said.
China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst
Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.
No they couldn't. The article also hedges enormously:
"Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region..." Not that this is likely either but it is a vast difference.
China though is increasingly becoming an issue. Hence the EU should become a country ASAP!
No they couldn't. The article also hedges enormously:
"Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region..." Not that this is likely either but it is a vast difference.
There are many people raising concerns about this, at any rate, I suppose its your opinion that neither China or any other country could defeat the US, ever.
If China wants to dominate the sea in it's immediate area it obviously could come to be able to do so, unless Japan radically re-arms too.
China is becoming a concern but no serious analyst would posit that China is going to be capable of defeating the United States in seven years time. They have the ability to make a conflict in their littoral very difficult but that isn't even really what's being proposed in this scenario.
There are many people raising concerns about this, at any rate, I suppose its your opinion that neither China or any other country could defeat the US, ever.
China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.
"China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack," Kashin said.
China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst
Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.
I would presume that "serious analysts" would be those ones which you agree with?!
This seems absolutely absurd when you compare the defense budgets of the two nations:
China Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 106 Billion
United States Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 684 Billion (not counting off budget items throw those in and you get close to a trillion)
Chinese military capabilities are absolutely dwarfed by ours in every way.
It's a question of priorities. The US is spending all that money waging conflicts around the world and trying to be the world's policemen/superpower. China is concentrating on a regional hegemony. So while The US maybe be spending 700 Billion all over the world, there spending 100 Billion primarily focused on controlling the East and South China seas.
This seems absolutely absurd when you compare the defense budgets of the two nations:
China Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 106 Billion
United States Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 684 Billion (not counting off budget items throw those in and you get close to a trillion)
Chinese military capabilities are absolutely dwarfed by ours in every way.
Actually those numbers are just general defense spending. They don't include the costs of the wars in Afghanistan. Anyway you slice it, we outspend China on defense by at least 6 to 1. Moreover, China cannot significantly increase its defense spending without risk of instability in China. For the CCP to have any legitimacy with the Chinese people, they must have strong economic growth every year. They do this by massively investing in infrastructure and economic development in general. If they tried to keep up with us in defense spending it would only result in less economic growth, the Chinese bubble may well would burst, and they would risk an open revolt against the CCP.
In the legitimate academic and military community. It is far and away the dominant consensus.
It's a question of priorities. The US is spending all that money waging conflicts around the world and trying to be the world's policemen/superpower. China is concentrating on a regional hegemony. So while The US maybe be spending 700 Billion all over the world, there spending 100 Billion primarily focused on controlling the East and South China seas.
Again though, it's all about priorities. To maintain a world wide military requires at least 600 billion dollars, and that's not including the wars and such. China only needs to worry about Taiwan, East and South China Sea and that's it. They don't care for any other problems around the world. You won't see them sending troops abroad. Therefore, there not going to invest in the Carriers, Aircraft, Navy, capable of fulfilling such a role. If they needed to lock down either the East or South China Sea, they could do so in short order by 2020, without major shift in priorities to the Pacific. (which we are pivoting to I grant you, but we're still behind.)
Actually those numbers are just general defense spending. They don't include the costs of the wars in Afghanistan. Anyway you slice it, we outspend China on defense by at least 6 to 1. Moreover, China cannot significantly increase its defense spending without risk of instability in China. For the CCP to have any legitimacy with the Chinese people, they must have strong economic growth every year. They do this by massively investing in infrastructure and economic development in general. If they tried to keep up with us in defense spending it would only result in less economic growth, the Chinese bubble may well would burst, and they would risk an open revolt against the CCP.
Maybe so, but I will say that last time I was there I actually ended up running with a group of PLA soldiers around Guangzhou. In a country with the nicest airports you will ever see, some of the most technologically advanced infrastructure on earth, their soldiers looked pathetic at best. They looked like what one would picture any third world army would look like. Old ragged uniforms, cheap looking guns, obviously poorly paid, and looking a bit malnourished. Just saying, from what I have seen over in China myself, I don't think we should be overly concerned.
I doubt quite strongly the idea that China could defeat the U.S. in the water. Granted, China does have ship-killing missiles, but the air power off our carriers alone would wipe out China's navy.
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