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China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

Montecresto

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China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.

"China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack," Kashin said.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1101&MainCatID=11&id=20131230000060


Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.
 
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Sherman123

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China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.

"China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack," Kashin said.

China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst


Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.

No they couldn't. The article also hedges enormously:

"Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region..." Not that this is likely either but it is a vast difference.
 

DDD

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No they couldn't. The article also hedges enormously:

"Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region..." Not that this is likely either but it is a vast difference.

China though is increasingly becoming an issue. Hence the EU should become a country ASAP!
 

Montecresto

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China though is increasingly becoming an issue. Hence the EU should become a country ASAP!

China IS becoming an issue, you think the EU becoming one country could project itself more favorably in the event of a conflict with China?
 

Montecresto

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No they couldn't. The article also hedges enormously:

"Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region..." Not that this is likely either but it is a vast difference.

There are many people raising concerns about this, at any rate, I suppose its your opinion that neither China or any other country could defeat the US, ever.
 

Sherman123

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There are many people raising concerns about this, at any rate, I suppose its your opinion that neither China or any other country could defeat the US, ever.

China is becoming a concern but no serious analyst would posit that China is going to be capable of defeating the United States in seven years time. They have the ability to make a conflict in their littoral very difficult but that isn't even really what's being proposed in this scenario.
 

joko104

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If China wants to dominate the sea in it's immediate area it obviously could come to be able to do so, unless Japan radically re-arms too.
 

Montecresto

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If China wants to dominate the sea in it's immediate area it obviously could come to be able to do so, unless Japan radically re-arms too.

I think that Japan is working somewhat in that direction as well.
 

Montecresto

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China is becoming a concern but no serious analyst would posit that China is going to be capable of defeating the United States in seven years time. They have the ability to make a conflict in their littoral very difficult but that isn't even really what's being proposed in this scenario.

I would presume that "serious analysts" would be those ones which you agree with?!
 

iguanaman

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There are many people raising concerns about this, at any rate, I suppose its your opinion that neither China or any other country could defeat the US, ever.

Naval battles are about as relevant as the Calvary. We need to cut back on big ships that are sitting ducks.
 

SouthernDemocrat

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China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.

"China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack," Kashin said.

China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst


Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.

This seems absolutely absurd when you compare the defense budgets of the two nations:

China Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 106 Billion

United States Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 684 Billion (not counting off budget items throw those in and you get close to a trillion)

Chinese military capabilities are absolutely dwarfed by ours in every way.
 

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This seems absolutely absurd when you compare the defense budgets of the two nations:

China Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 106 Billion

United States Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 684 Billion (not counting off budget items throw those in and you get close to a trillion)

Chinese military capabilities are absolutely dwarfed by ours in every way.

It's a question of priorities. The US is spending all that money waging conflicts around the world and trying to be the world's policemen/superpower. China is concentrating on a regional hegemony. So while The US maybe be spending 700 Billion all over the world, there spending 100 Billion primarily focused on controlling the East and South China seas.
 

SouthernDemocrat

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It's a question of priorities. The US is spending all that money waging conflicts around the world and trying to be the world's policemen/superpower. China is concentrating on a regional hegemony. So while The US maybe be spending 700 Billion all over the world, there spending 100 Billion primarily focused on controlling the East and South China seas.

Actually those numbers are just general defense spending. They don't include the costs of the wars in Afghanistan. Anyway you slice it, we outspend China on defense by at least 6 to 1. Moreover, China cannot significantly increase its defense spending without risk of instability in China. For the CCP to have any legitimacy with the Chinese people, they must have strong economic growth every year. They do this by massively investing in infrastructure and economic development in general. If they tried to keep up with us in defense spending it would only result in less economic growth, the Chinese bubble may well would burst, and they would risk an open revolt against the CCP.
 

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Montecresto

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This seems absolutely absurd when you compare the defense budgets of the two nations:

China Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 106 Billion

United States Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 684 Billion (not counting off budget items throw those in and you get close to a trillion)

Chinese military capabilities are absolutely dwarfed by ours in every way.

The pentagon says that China is under reporting their white paper budgets. Furthermore, the Pentagon budget you quote includes the expenses of the US to stick its military nose in every corner of the earth. China isn't projecting itself in that way, it has hugely increased its military budget in the last decade, concerned about US imperialism.

China clearly complicates U.S. defense planning in Asia, says CFR's Senior Fellow for China Studies, Adam Segal. The Pentagon's 2008 report to Congress states: "Current trends in China's military capabilities are a major factor in changing East Asian military balances, and could provide China with a force capable of prosecuting a range of military operations in Asia-well beyond Taiwan."

http://www.cfr.org/china/countering-chinas-military-modernization/p9052

And I would point out that the Council on Foreign Relations report is 5 years old.
 

Hamster Buddha

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Actually those numbers are just general defense spending. They don't include the costs of the wars in Afghanistan. Anyway you slice it, we outspend China on defense by at least 6 to 1. Moreover, China cannot significantly increase its defense spending without risk of instability in China. For the CCP to have any legitimacy with the Chinese people, they must have strong economic growth every year. They do this by massively investing in infrastructure and economic development in general. If they tried to keep up with us in defense spending it would only result in less economic growth, the Chinese bubble may well would burst, and they would risk an open revolt against the CCP.

Again though, it's all about priorities. To maintain a world wide military requires at least 600 billion dollars, and that's not including the wars and such. China only needs to worry about Taiwan, East and South China Sea and that's it. They don't care for any other problems around the world. You won't see them sending troops abroad. Therefore, there not going to invest in the Carriers, Aircraft, Navy, capable of fulfilling such a role. If they needed to lock down either the East or South China Sea, they could do so in short order by 2020, without major shift in priorities to the Pacific. (which we are pivoting to I grant you, but we're still behind.)
 

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In the legitimate academic and military community. It is far and away the dominant consensus.

No, it is not. All serious academics see China as a growing threat to WestPac presently and beyond in the future.
 

Montecresto

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It's a question of priorities. The US is spending all that money waging conflicts around the world and trying to be the world's policemen/superpower. China is concentrating on a regional hegemony. So while The US maybe be spending 700 Billion all over the world, there spending 100 Billion primarily focused on controlling the East and South China seas.

Exactly the point! But wait till China bitch slaps us one day and then these nay Sayers will understand.
 

SouthernDemocrat

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Again though, it's all about priorities. To maintain a world wide military requires at least 600 billion dollars, and that's not including the wars and such. China only needs to worry about Taiwan, East and South China Sea and that's it. They don't care for any other problems around the world. You won't see them sending troops abroad. Therefore, there not going to invest in the Carriers, Aircraft, Navy, capable of fulfilling such a role. If they needed to lock down either the East or South China Sea, they could do so in short order by 2020, without major shift in priorities to the Pacific. (which we are pivoting to I grant you, but we're still behind.)

Maybe so, but I will say that last time I was there I actually ended up running with a group of PLA soldiers around Guangzhou. In a country with the nicest airports you will ever see, some of the most technologically advanced infrastructure on earth, their soldiers looked pathetic at best. They looked like what one would picture any third world army would look like. Old ragged uniforms, cheap looking guns, obviously poorly paid, and looking a bit malnourished. Just saying, from what I have seen over in China myself, I don't think we should be overly concerned.
 

Montecresto

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Actually those numbers are just general defense spending. They don't include the costs of the wars in Afghanistan. Anyway you slice it, we outspend China on defense by at least 6 to 1. Moreover, China cannot significantly increase its defense spending without risk of instability in China. For the CCP to have any legitimacy with the Chinese people, they must have strong economic growth every year. They do this by massively investing in infrastructure and economic development in general. If they tried to keep up with us in defense spending it would only result in less economic growth, the Chinese bubble may well would burst, and they would risk an open revolt against the CCP.

Again, the US is cutting defense spending while China's is on steroids, and your 100 billion figure is just wrong.
 

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I doubt quite strongly the idea that China could defeat the U.S. in the water. Granted, China does have ship-killing missiles, but the air power off our carriers alone would wipe out China's navy.
 

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China’s defense budget will double by 2015, making it more than the rest of the Asia Pacific region’s combined, according to a report from IHS Jane’s, a global think tank specializing in security issues.

Beijing’s military spending will reach $238.2 billion in 2015, compared with $232.5 billion for rest of the region, according to the report. That would also be almost four times the expected defense budget of Japan, the next biggest in the region, in 2015, the report said.

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/02/14/chinas-military-spending-to-double-by-2015-report/


Only fools treat China as a paper tiger.
 

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Maybe so, but I will say that last time I was there I actually ended up running with a group of PLA soldiers around Guangzhou. In a country with the nicest airports you will ever see, some of the most technologically advanced infrastructure on earth, their soldiers looked pathetic at best. They looked like what one would picture any third world army would look like. Old ragged uniforms, cheap looking guns, obviously poorly paid, and looking a bit malnourished. Just saying, from what I have seen over in China myself, I don't think we should be overly concerned.

It won't be a ground war that we will have to wage with China though. What it will probably become is an attempt to assert it's rights and aggressively defend it's claims in the East and South China Sea. The US and Japan won't tolerate this, and that's when war would break out. Not a world war scale, but a naval/air force action which they have been preparing for the last 20 or so years. At that point, it will probably devolve into a blockade of some sort to try and starve out the country of energy and food, because China doesn't have the force projection capabilities they won't be able to break it. In response, they'll probably send out their diesel sub fleet and start hitting our shipping and oil rigs that we rely on. Then it just be a question of who is willing to suffer the longest, odds are that the US would cave first, as public opinion will probably see it as just another war "over there" and Japan doesn't have the resources to wage that kind of war for a prolonged period of time.
 

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I doubt quite strongly the idea that China could defeat the U.S. in the water. Granted, China does have ship-killing missiles, but the air power off our carriers alone would wipe out China's navy.

We're not going to see a blue water style action though. Like I've said before, the Chinese will attempt to lock down interests in the East or South China Sea (like those islands they were feuding over) and we would have to respond. And the closer you get to china, you're going to deal with the 21st Century equivalent of the Atlantic Wall.
 
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