China begins new military exercise - to "encircle" Taiwan

[Juks]

China has started a military exercise around Taiwan to "punish separatist actions". The exercise, which will "surround the island" came as a response to the installation of the country's new president on Monday.

The Chinese military announces that the two-day military exercise will take place in the Taiwan Strait and that the military will surround the island. Both ships and aircraft are to be included in the exercise, according to the Reuters news agency.

Already on Thursday morning, armed fighter jets are said to have carried out mock attacks against military targets in Taiwan.

The exercise began, on Thursday morning, just three days after Taiwan's popularly elected President Lai Ching-Te was sworn in after the election in January this year.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html

I actually asked Chatgpt how likely it was that China would invade Taiwan in the current situation, after I gave it a summary on the conflicts currently at hand and who is on what side on each conflict. I also included that Trump was leading candidate for President. The answer it gave me was:

"Given the complex and divided global situation, the risk that the Chinese leaders see an opportunity in the current chaos and actually attack Taiwan is significant. The current geopolitical context offers China a strategic opportunity to act when many of the world's leading powers are preoccupied with other conflicts and crises.!

 

[mrjurrs]

China has started a military exercise around Taiwan to "punish separatist actions". The exercise, which will "surround the island" came as a response to the installation of the country's new president on Monday.

The Chinese military announces that the two-day military exercise will take place in the Taiwan Strait and that the military will surround the island. Both ships and aircraft are to be included in the exercise, according to the Reuters news agency.

Already on Thursday morning, armed fighter jets are said to have carried out mock attacks against military targets in Taiwan.

The exercise began, on Thursday morning, just three days after Taiwan's popularly elected President Lai Ching-Te was sworn in after the election in January this year.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html

I actually asked Chatgpt how likely it was that China would invade Taiwan in the current situation, after I gave it a summary on the conflicts currently at hand and who is on what side on each conflict. I also included that Trump was leading candidate for President. The answer it gave me was:

"Given the complex and divided global situation, the risk that the Chinese leaders see an opportunity in the current chaos and actually attack Taiwan is significant. The current geopolitical context offers China a strategic opportunity to act when many of the world's leading powers are preoccupied with other conflicts and crises.!

Remember, Chat gpt is still a few years behind knowing everything on the web...

 

[Juks]

Remember, Chat gpt is still a few years behind knowing everything on the web...

Thats why I gave it a summary before making my question

 

[Rumpelstil]

china appears very threatening

 

[eohrnberger]

china appears very threatening

Have been for a long time, and have been escalating all along.

 

[Rumpelstil]

Have been for a long time, and have been escalating all along.

without being provoked

 

[eohrnberger]

without being provoked

Yes, that's true.

 

[Toggle Almendro]

US fighter jets flying out of Japan, Okinawa, and the Philippines could sink a lot of Chinese shipping and cut Chinese trade off from the Pacific Ocean.

US bombers flying out of Diego Garcia and western Australia could patrol the Indian Ocean and sink Chinese ships headed to Africa and Europe.

Add in a few bomber strikes against Chinese rail links to their neighbors, and that's checkmate for the Chinese economy.

 

[eohrnberger]

US fighter jets flying out of Japan, Okinawa, and the Philippines could sink a lot of Chinese shipping and cut Chinese trade off from the Pacific Ocean.

US bombers flying out of Diego Garcia and western Australia could patrol the Indian Ocean and sink Chinese ships headed to Africa and Europe.

Add in a few bomber strikes against Chinese rail links to their neighbors, and that's checkmate for the Chinese economy.

True. But at what consequence to the US, it's economy, and indeed, the world economy?
None good that I can see.

I think better if this is done through 'soft power' rather than direct offensive military action such as you propose.
If Biden had been the astute and capable foreign policy leader that he believes (wishes) he were, we'd have already seen it, but we've seen nothing but the exact opposite.

But then again, those always were unrealistic expectations of Biden.

“I thought Joe Biden had been wrong on almost every major foreign policy issue over the preceding 40 years.”
Former Obama Defense Secretary and CIA chief Robert Gates
“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f… things up.” Obama

 

[craig]

Remember, Chat gpt is still a few years behind knowing everything on the web...

What does that mean?

 

[Pyrite]

True. But at what consequence to the US, it's economy, and indeed, the world economy?
None good that I can see.

I think better if this is done through 'soft power' rather than direct offensive military action such as you propose.
If Biden had been the astute and capable foreign policy leader that he believes (wishes) he were, we'd have already seen it, but we've seen nothing but the exact opposite.

But then again, those always were unrealistic expectations of Biden.

“I thought Joe Biden had been wrong on almost every major foreign policy issue over the preceding 40 years.”
Former Obama Defense Secretary and CIA chief Robert Gates
“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f… things up.” Obama

China's desire to take over Taiwan didn't start in February 2021.

If you're determined to cast blame, place some squarely on the shoulders of Biden's predecessor.

Btw, you don't seem to be aware that Biden has kept in place many of his predecessor's tariffs. Well, so much for that bit of "soft power"....right?

 

[eohrnberger]

China's desire to take over Taiwan didn't start in February 2021.

Not a claim that I've made.

If you're determined to cast blame, place some squarely on the shoulders of Biden's predecessor.

How much more emboldened have the worlds bad actors, including China, have become since Feb 2021?

Btw, you don't seem to be aware that Biden has kept in place many of his predecessor's tariffs. Well, so much for that bit of "soft power"....right?

Tariffs are the only 'soft power'? Didn't think so.

If you really wanted to hurt China, you'd expense some of this soft power and start having more and more trade restrictions and economic isolation imposed on China. I suspect that'd have more effect than the military posturing any day. Of course, that would require some exercise of this soft power, behind closed doors, applied successfully. On that count, both Trump and Biden are legitimately viewed as abject failures.

 

[Pyrite]

Not a claim that I've made.

Biden assumed office in late Jan 2021. You seem to be blaming Biden for China's aggression toward Taiwan. I pointed out this didn't just begin shortly after Biden's taking office - that it had been going on for quite some time.

How much more emboldened have the worlds bad actors, including China, have become since Feb 2021?

We're talking about China vs Taiwan.

Tariffs are the only 'soft power'? Didn't think so.

If you really wanted to hurt China, you'd expense some of this soft power and start having more and more trade restrictions and economic isolation imposed on China. I suspect that'd have more effect than the military posturing any day. Of course, that would require some exercise of this soft power, behind closed doors, applied successfully.

Tariffs seemed to be the only "soft power" action trump took against China. If you want to list other actions, go for it.

In the meantime, the point stands: Biden has kept in place many if not all of those trump tariffs.

On that count, both Trump and Biden are legitimately viewed as abject failures.

Good to see you're adjusting what seemed so recently to be your position:

@eohrnberger:
I think better if this is done through 'soft power' rather than direct offensive military action such as you propose.
If Biden had been the astute and capable foreign policy leader that he believes (wishes) he were, we'd have already seen it, but we've seen nothing but the exact opposite.
But then again, those always were unrealistic expectations of Biden.

 

[eohrnberger]

Biden assumed office in late Jan 2021. You seem to be blaming Biden for China's aggression toward Taiwan. I pointed out this didn't just begin shortly after Biden's taking office - that it had been going on for quite some time.

Yeah, right, and nothing's happened, nothing's changed since Biden took office eh?
No, that's not true. China as continued to escalate, but, given these latest developments, they've accelerated their escalation.
I see that subtle differences don't appear to be your strong suit.

I made no claim that there was not Chinese escalation prior to Biden's administration, and there in lies your misunderstanding. How clear is "On that count, both Trump and Biden are legitimately viewed as abject failures.", specific to the use of soft power?

We're talking about China vs Taiwan.

China is in fact one of the world's bad actors, so what's your point?

Tariffs seemed to be the only "soft power" action trump took against China. If you want to list other actions, go for it.

Again which part of "On that count, both Trump and Biden are legitimately viewed as abject failures." confuses you?

In the meantime, the point stands: Biden has kept in place many if not all of those trump tariffs.

Not disputed, so what's your point again?

Good to see you're adjusting what seemed so recently to be your position:

@eohrnberger:
I think better if this is done through 'soft power' rather than direct offensive military action such as you propose.
If Biden had been the astute and capable foreign policy leader that he believes (wishes) he were, we'd have already seen it, but we've seen nothing but the exact opposite.
But then again, those always were unrealistic expectations of Biden.

I still stand by this position. There's no 'adjusting' going on, on my part.
(PS: There's a 'reply' as well as a 'quote' and 'insert quote' functions here on the forum)

 

[Toggle Almendro]

I think better if this is done through 'soft power' rather than direct offensive military action such as you propose.

Soft power is for peacetime. If China starts shooting for real, the US will start shooting for real too.

 

[Juks]

What does that mean?

It has no information on events after 1 January 2022.

 

[eohrnberger]

Soft power is for peacetime. If China starts shooting for real, the US will start shooting for real too.

True. Once it has escalated to a shooting war, soft power isn't going to be able to do much. But that wasn't my assertion either, so . . OK.

 

[joluoto]

Thats why I gave it a summary before making my question

ChatGPT will tell you what it thinks you want to hear based on your prompt. So the answer will be leaning towards what it thinks your prompt was leaning towards.

 

[Juks]

ChatGPT will tell you what it thinks you want to hear based on your prompt. So the answer will be leaning towards what it thinks your prompt was leaning towards.

That's why I like it! Best friend ever!

 

[mrjurrs]

What does that mean?

That means that that AI is not up to current knowledge.

 

[dandolo2k]

I wonder what Chinese guys think about all this Taiwan story ? If any here....