Iran is not likely to be swayed by Vice President Cheney's latest
remarks and has already
indicated that it will maintain its present course. Iran sees world developments as aligning in its favor and the U.S. position as becoming increasingly isolated.
Presently, Iran perceives itself to be in the endgame of the pursuit of its nuclear objectives. On September 24, 2007, Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran proclaimed, "The game is closing its 90th minute. George Bush's presidency will run out in 15 months… Iran is confidently continuing is nuclear activities and considers itself the winner of the game." Two days earlier, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Iran’s "enemies and ill-wishers are considerably lagging, weaker and more despondent."
As far as Iran is concerned, military action aimed at thwarting its nuclear program is highly unlikely. Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran, broadcasting the calculations of Iran’s leaders, explained, "A military attack on Iran is so far fetched that even a whispering word about it has put the French foreign minister Kouchner on trial and forced Bush's close associates resign."
As a result, Iran is focused on limiting the prospects of coercive diplomacy enforced by increasingly tough international sanctions. "Iran's strategy for neutralizing America's pressures takes the form of comprehensive political and economic strategies, national deterrents and diplomatic activity. Proportionate to America's combined tactics to apply pressure on Iran which include using the Agency [IAEA], psychological warfare, intensification of economic sanctions and military threats as tools, Iran is also pursuing its own deterrent strategies against threats and neutralizing America's pressure through varied political and economic tactics and other national facilities and international opportunities," Reza Tala'i-Nik, a member of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee recently explained. Specifically, Iran is continuing its campaign of aggressive diplomacy to undermine any effective international efforts to isolate it. It is also sharpening its propaganda so as to erode the credibility of those who seek to block its nuclear objectives.
In spite France’s toughening position on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran believes that Europe’s countries, in general, Russia, and China, are slowly shifting away from the U.S. position. Iran’s
Hemayat newspaper wrote, "Europe, Russia and many other countries have increased their relative distance from Britain and America. Despite a third resolution having been drawn up by America and Britain, even in the case of it being approved, its contents will undoubtedly be changed; because Russia, China and the majority of European countries are pursuing peaceful solutions to Iran's nuclear case or lessened cooperation with America." IAEA Director-General Mohamed Elbaradei's recent
interview in which he sought to dampen perceptions that Iran poses an imminent threat, likely strengthens Iran's calculations that the international community is not likely to materially increase its pressure on Iran.
In my opinion, it would make sense for the international community to develop a rigorous sanctions regime focused on Iran's ability to import refined petroleum products and sell oil on the world market and set forth the criteria for its implementation beginning in the near-term. A credible and strong sanctions regime may well offer the strongest prospect of thwarting Iran's ability to attain nuclear weapons without the need for military action to do so. In contrast, a lack of credible and decisive sanctions program might well increase the risk that the situation would reach a critical point at which Iran would need to be attacked as a last resort to deny it access to nuclear weapons or, failing that, would attain such weapons. Iran's attainment of nuclear weapons would greatly increase geopolitical risks to vital American interests and allies in the region. It would also give Iran the capacity to pose a substantial threat to the global economy given its ability to exert power over the Persian Gulf region or resort to nuclear blackmail.
Such risks would be real. Iran continues to see itself as an ongoing "revolution," rather than merely a sovereign state. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to envision a world without Israel. Hence, earlier cases in which nations acquired nuclear weapons may not be relevant in defining a nuclear-armed Iran's course. Therefore, at least in my opinion, a nuclear-armed Iran would constitute an unacceptable risk to regional and international peace and security.