Belarus's Lukashenka, Weary Of Russia Union, Seeks To Buy U.S. Crude

[Rogue Valley]

Belarus's Lukashenka, Weary Of Russia Union, Seeks To Buy U.S. Crude

Belneftekhim of Belarus has been under U.S. sanctions since 2007.

8/23/19
Belarus is seeking to buy U.S. oil for its refineries for the first time as it strives to diversify supplies away from its more powerful, energy-rich neighbor Russia and build warmer relations with the West, RFE/RL has learned. The interest in U.S. crude comes as Moscow voices greater interest in pursuing a union with Belarus, a project that has remained dormant for the past 20 years but that the Kremlin wants to revive. The state-owned Belarusian Oil Company, which is affiliated with the refiner Belneftekhim Concern, has hired David Gencarelli to lobby the U.S. government for sanctions relief so the country can buy crude. Gencarelli will assist the company in getting a special license from the U.S. Treasury Department for the "purchase of crude oil with delivery to the refineries in the Republic of Belarus," according to a Foreign Agents Registration Act filing. Gencarelli, who has worked as a lobbyist for nearly three decades, did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Gencarelli's clients, including those in the energy industry, "have, with this help, navigated the Halls of Congress" and federal agencies, he wrote on his social media page. Siarhei Nahorny, senior counselor for trade and economic affairs at the Belarusian Embassy in Washington, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the filing.

Belarus buying oil from a Kremlin foe “is a political message aimed at Russia,” said Michael Carpenter, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense, who now is a senior director at the Penn Biden Center at the University of Pennsylvania.“This is a hard slap in Putin’s face.” Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, has kept Belarus within its sphere of influence by offering the nation cheap energy and loans that have propped up its outdated economy for decades. Russia sells its Urals brand of crude to Belarusian refineries at its domestic price, which is below world market prices. Belarusian refineries then export most of the oil products, pocketing higher profits. Refining accounts for a significant portion of Belarus's economic output and export revenue, with its refining capacity far exceeding its domestic needs. However, Russia is in the process of ending that practice by 2024, leaving Belarus vulnerable to Russian pressure for a union. The authoritarian ruler has said he wants to cut Russia's share of trade from roughly one-half to one-third. Importing U.S. oil would be one way of achieving that goal. U.S. crude was exported to Ukraine for the first time ever in July. However, Belarus's ability to tap U.S. energy is impacted by sanctions. Gencarelli will seek to arrange a meeting in September or October "with representatives of U.S. government agencies involved in a license issue decision-making process” to receive another waiver, the filing said. Should Gencarelli be successful, Belarus could hire him to help lobby for "the complete lifting of sanctions against Belneftekhim Concern and its enterprises," the filing said.

With a few minor pipeline modifications, US crude could be exported to landlocked Belarus via Ukraine. Poland imports US liquefied natural gas (LNG). Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko has been extremely wary of Vladimir Putin since the Georgia War, and especially so after Putin stole Ukraine's Crimea oblast and invaded eastern Ukraine. Lukashenka has said publicly that he does not agree with what has happened to Ukraine. For his part Vladimir Putin is looking for a way to remain president of Russia, but under the Russian Constitution he cannot have three consecutive terms. About 20 years ago, Russia and Belarus signed a Union Treaty which has largely remained dormant. However, Putin realizes that the Russian Constitution would have to be re-written if there is a formal union with Belarus. This is how he could remain in power. Lukashenka has been searching for means to avoid this union. He does not want his native Belarus to be swallowed up by Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation. Putin is increasing the pressures on Lukashenka to acquiesce to a formal union.

 

[Jetboogieman]

It’s interesting seeing Lukashenko with his son, you get the sense that he’s grooming him for succession and perhaps he feels that he has to “secure the dynasty” while he’s still got time, because as what usually happens with dictatorships of his type, when he dies, Belarus would be vulnerable from Russian influence up to and including annexation not including internal issues, especially if he dropped dead soon with a young son as successor, we’ve seen that story play out throughout history plenty.

He’s 65, unlikely to drop dead any minute barring some underlying health issues we aren’t aware of.

 

[Litwin]

It’s interesting seeing Lukashenko with his son, you get the sense that he’s grooming him for succession and perhaps he feels that he has to “secure the dynasty” while he’s still got time, because as what usually happens with dictatorships of his type, when he dies, Belarus would be vulnerable from Russian influence up to and including annexation not including internal issues, especially if he dropped dead soon with a young son as successor, we’ve seen that story play out throughout history plenty.

He’s 65, unlikely to drop dead any minute barring some underlying health issues we aren’t aware of.

he got 3 suns , they all will share the real power, with youngest on the top , meanwhile president role will be just a formal position , my guess it will be Makej´s next job. quite similar with Kazakhstan´s succession