• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Asteroid Headed Toward Earth?

rhinefire

rhinefire

DP Veteran
Joined
May 3, 2007
Messages
12,942
Reaction score
4,883
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
Yesterday a scientist said there is about a 2 1/2 % chance it will hit Earth. Recall a rocket was launched and landed on an asteroid to change the direction to avoid Earth.

aseroid headedtoward earth - Search News

News from world, national, and local news sources, organized to give you in-depth news coverage of sports, entertainment, business, politics, weather, and more.
www.bing.com www.bing.com
 
rhinefire said:
Yesterday a scientist said there is about a 2 1/2 % chance it will hit Earth. Recall a rocket was launched and landed on an asteroid to change the direction to avoid Earth.

aseroid headedtoward earth - Search News

News from world, national, and local news sources, organized to give you in-depth news coverage of sports, entertainment, business, politics, weather, and more.
www.bing.com www.bing.com
Click to expand...

Actually it's about a 1.2% chance it will hit earth. That figure will change (probably lower, but possibly higher) as we learn more about it's orbit.
It's also pretty small, so even if it did hit earth, unless it hit an urban area, it's not going to be a disaster.
 
CLAX1911 said:
Apophis is supposed to hit us in April 2029 Friday the 13th of course.
Click to expand...
I believe Apophis has a much lower chance of hitting us. This one appears it may be a real statistical threat. I don't know how accurate this is, but Wiki has a video of ot projected path. I did a print screen to capture it near earth:

1739534627022.webp

en.wikipedia.org

2024 YR4 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Impact corridor projected if it hits:

1739534728815.webp

I wonder if more reliable sources have released information to the public. I might look, I might not.
 
Lord of Planar said:
I believe Apophis has a much lower chance of hitting us. This one appears it may be a real statistical threat. I don't know how accurate this is, but Wiki has a video of ot projected path. I did a print screen to capture it near earth:



en.wikipedia.org

2024 YR4 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Impact corridor projected if it hits:



I wonder if more reliable sources have released information to the public. I might look, I might not.
Click to expand...

Most scientist has said for the past 4 years there is zero chance it will hit us.
Some, probably looking for hits on their social media, have said 5% and higher.
I remember seeing a clip from Neil DeGrasse showing that, even though astronomically it will be extremely close, on our scale - it will be the opposite. The prediction is 20,000 miles or about the distance of traveling all the way around the earth. That is unbelievable close at large scale, but small scall that is still quite far away.
The asteroid YR4 in 2032 has much-much higher chance of hitting earth - but even it is only 2% chance.
 
We shouldn't waste time on scientific solutions. I'll tell you what we'll do. Everyone on earth will buy themselves a plane ticket to one particular spot. Once we're all there, we'll all jump at the same time. This will cause the earth to dodge the asteroid. As for the location of the particular spot, I'm not sure. We have eight years to find it. We should use divining rods and consult psychics for that part.

Problem sizzolved.
 
iamwhatiseem said:
Another asteroid hitting earth? Again?
This is "news" every other year since I was a kid
Click to expand...
They are only close encounters, with varying degrees of probability. All low. Anyone saying they will hit, are just fearmongering.
 
Lord of Planar said:
That calculator has its nearest point to earth at 0.057 AU (5.3 million miles) on 12/19/32. The error range of such calculators mean we are within the error rage for impact.
Click to expand...
Weird. I think the course was updated since I looked last. It now shows it closest on 11/21 to 11/22 2036. Else I made a mistake on reading the numbers.
 
iamwhatiseem said:
Most scientist has said for the past 4 years there is zero chance it will hit us.
Some, probably looking for hits on their social media, have said 5% and higher.
I remember seeing a clip from Neil DeGrasse showing that, even though astronomically it will be extremely close, on our scale - it will be the opposite. The prediction is 20,000 miles or about the distance of traveling all the way around the earth. That is unbelievable close at large scale, but small scall that is still quite far away.
The asteroid YR4 in 2032 has much-much higher chance of hitting earth - but even it is only 2% chance.
Click to expand...
Only the arrogant scientists will state with certainty. We are still finding gravitational anomalies that can affect the trajectory from time to time. Error ranges are there for a reason.
 
Aristaeus said:
Actually it's about a 1.2% chance it will hit earth. That figure will change (probably lower, but possibly higher) as we learn more about it's orbit.
It's also pretty small, so even if it did hit earth, unless it hit an urban area, it's not going to be a disaster.
Click to expand...
Its at 2.3% now

www.nbcnews.com

NASA says yes, an asteroid buzzing by in 2032 could hit Earth

But — importantly — the chances are still "extremely low," though they have ticked up since the object was first detected.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
Regardless of the probability earth's history is full of huge asteroid collisions. It's going to happen sooner or later. If mankind can get their act together we might be able to save ourselves.
 
rhinefire said:
Yesterday a scientist said there is about a 2 1/2 % chance it will hit Earth. Recall a rocket was launched and landed on an asteroid to change the direction to avoid Earth.

aseroid headedtoward earth - Search News

News from world, national, and local news sources, organized to give you in-depth news coverage of sports, entertainment, business, politics, weather, and more.
www.bing.com www.bing.com
Click to expand...
Not the same one, that one broke the asteroid into pieces, lots of great science gleaned.

About 15 years ago there was an asteroid that made a close pass (about the distance of the moon IIRC), it was going to brighten to around magnitude 8.5, reachable in my telescope. Even with a half moon, and streetlights I was able to see it. I had the ephemeris data by the minute for it so I was able to enter in the RA an Dec coordinates a minute ahead of time and watch. My scope tracks with the stars, moving slowly in the opposite direction of the movement of the stars across the sky (well, the earth moving the other way).

So, I sat and looked for several minutes, re-entering the coords every few minutes. Once my brain could recognize the stars in the wide field of view, I saw it. It was moving across the field from bottom left to top right, flickering slowly as it rotated, the brightness depended on which part was reflecting the sun. It was pretty damned cool to see something that dim, I was lucky to be in the right time and place as it was closest.
 
iamwhatiseem said:
Another asteroid hitting earth? Again?
This is "news" every other year since I was a kid
Click to expand...
Technology to track them is way beyond technology decades ago. This morning 2/14 it was reported the chance of impact is now twice the 2 1/2%. Don't fret "it can't happen here." 🤪
 
Helix said:
We shouldn't waste time on scientific solutions. I'll tell you what we'll do. Everyone on earth will buy themselves a plane ticket to one particular spot. Once we're all there, we'll all jump at the same time. This will cause the earth to dodge the asteroid. As for the location of the particular spot, I'm not sure. We have eight years to find it. We should use divining rods and consult psychics for that part.

Problem sizzolved.
Click to expand...
Please dont give POTUS Elmo and Trump any ideas.
 
Lord of Planar said:
That calculator has its nearest point to earth at 0.057 AU (5.3 million miles) on 12/19/32. The error range of such calculators mean we are within the error rage for impact.
Click to expand...
I’d take the bet.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom